Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[WxWatcher007]

Agree with @Windspeed. This is an anomalously favorable environment for TC genesis, but there is a substantial difference between highly favorable for TC genesis and the kind of environment you need for a hurricane let alone a major. Even with the guidance being bullish, we really need to see what comes together within 95L itself and then analyze that against the environment and climo. 

I’m not saying it’s impossible—clearly it is this season—but it is far from even being likely right now IMO. 

[GaWx]

The UKMET (0Z) still doesn’t have a TC from this.

 The 0Z GEFS remains pretty active.

[GaWx]

The 0Z Euro still has a TC on a similar path to the 12Z but it isn’t as strong as the 12Z had, especially in the W Caribbean, where the 12Z had at least a cat 3. This is at most a cat 1 there. Regardless, it would still be pretty amazing in early July to have a TC not only survive the Caribbean but also strengthen into a (near) H as it crosses it!

[GaWx]

 1. The 0Z UKMET maps just came out. Not only do they not have a TC as I already knew from the text output issued 2+ hours earlier, they don’t even have a closed low, similar to prior runs! Keep in mind that this is one of the better models.

2. OTOH, the 0Z Euro ens is about as active as the quite active 12Z. What a battle!

[Windspeed]

The 0Z Euro still has a TC on a similar path to the 12Z but it isn’t as strong as the 12Z had, especially in the W Caribbean, where the 12Z had at least a cat 3. This is at most a cat 1 there. Regardless, it would still be pretty amazing in early July to have a TC not only survive the Caribbean but also strengthen into a (near) H as it crosses it!

I don't presently have access to compare, but yesterday's 12Z EURO had the ULL over the central GOM, which aided ventilation and built an ULAC right over the TC in the WCARIB. The GFS runs have all had the TUTT/ULL placed much further south and in closer proximity to the TC in WCARIB, which kept the TC under 20+ KTs of shear. Perhaps the new 00Z Euro came to a similar solution, hence a weaker system. Other than monitoring to see if we get a TC out of 95L, the evolution in modeling between the upper level features in the Caribbean is going to be the focus on any potential ceiling for intensity in the forecast. I do think 95L has an excellent shot of TCG and may become a strong TS, even a low-end hurricane, but I am very apprehensive of the major hurricane solutions that we may again see come and go over the next several days that would have any basis in reality. As has been repeated, the Caribbean in July is generally a graveyard for early MDR TCs for good reason. Climatology more often wins out this early in the season despite the above normal SSTs in place along potential track.

[Floydbuster]

HWRF shows a Category 3 strike on St. Vincent next Tuesday.

 

 

 

[Windspeed]

Both initial runs of HAFS have a hurricane in the ECARIB. THE HAFS-B is the stronger of the two, reaching hurricane intensity prior to the Lesser Antilles. HAFS-A has a more asymmetrical sheared structure through the Windwards.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

3 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

HWRF shows a Category 3 strike on St. Vincent next Tuesday.

 

 

 

Larp/roblox solution imo

I am doubtful

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Both initial runs of HAFS have a hurricane in the ECARIB. THE HAFS-B is the stronger of the two, reaching hurricane intensity prior to the Lesser Antilles. HAFS-A has a more asymmetrical sheared structure through the Windwards.

Hafs b is definitely reading tales from the Caribbean graveyard 

sounds like a larp solution and not believable

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 0Z Euro still has a TC on a similar path to the 12Z but it isn’t as strong as the 12Z had, especially in the W Caribbean, where the 12Z had at least a cat 3. This is at most a cat 1 there. Regardless, it would still be pretty amazing in early July to have a TC not only survive the Caribbean but also strengthen into a (near) H as it crosses it!

I don't presently have access to compare, but yesterday's 12Z EURO had the ULL over the central GOM, which aided ventilation and built an ULAC right over the TC in the WCARIB. The GFS runs have all had the TUTT/ULL placed much further south and in closer proximity to the TC in WCARIB, which kept the TC under 20+ KTs of shear. Perhaps the new 00Z Euro came to a similar solution, hence a weaker system. Other than monitoring to see if we get a TC out of 95L, the evolution in modeling between the upper level features in the Caribbean is going to be the focus on any potential ceiling for intensity in the forecast. I do think 95L has an excellent shot of TCG and may become a strong TS, even a low-end hurricane, but I am very apprehensive of the major hurricane solutions that we may again see come and go over the next several days that would have any basis in reality. As has been repeated, the Caribbean in July is generally a graveyard for early MDR TCs for good reason. Climatology more often wins out this early in the season despite the above normal SSTs in place along potential track.

I’m regarding those recent mogger runs as tales from the Caribbean graveyard 

until a solid td forms I need to see if it’s tales or not

I am doubtful

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

I’m regarding those recent mogger runs as tales from the Caribbean graveyard 

until a solid td forms I need to see if it’s tales or not

I am doubtful

 I agree that having an actual TD and especially TS first exist before the Lesser Antilles would increase the chance of a H in the Caribbean though even that would still be far from a guarantee of course and not even likely due to the frequency of struggle in the E Car. The Euro having it not only not struggle there and instead steadily strengthen there should be taken with a huge grain at this early stage imho, especially with the GFS doing the opposite.

[WxWatcher007]

Judging by visible this morning, this does have a good shot of spinning up into a NS relatively quickly. 

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 0Z Euro still has a TC on a similar path to the 12Z but it isn’t as strong as the 12Z had, especially in the W Caribbean, where the 12Z had at least a cat 3. This is at most a cat 1 there. Regardless, it would still be pretty amazing in early July to have a TC not only survive the Caribbean but also strengthen into a (near) H as it crosses it!

Surviving the Caribbean, particularly if it can do it as a hurricane, would be highly impressive to me. 

[Normandy]

It should be noted that systems who are relatively strong / intensifying coming into the E CAR are far less likely to succumb to fast trades.  Strong systems modify the trades ahead of them with their inflow, especially if they are intensifying.  As an example, hurricane Maria.  Other factors can induce weakening however, but I wouldn’t count on fast wind trades in the E CAR for this one. 

[olafminesaw]

Of the June/July TDs that formed in the general region the NHC has highlighted going back to 1990 max strength as follows:

TD 8

TS 9

CAT 1: 6

CAT 3 : 3 

CAT 4 : 1 

CAT 5 : 1

39% Reached hurricane strength 

[Winter Wizard]

3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Of the June/July TDs that formed in the general region the NHC has highlighted going back to 1990 max strength as follows:

TD 8

TS 9

CAT 1: 6

CAT 3 : 3 

CAT 4 : 1 

CAT 5 : 1

39% Reached hurricane strength 

Can you provide the source of this data? Image or link? 

[GaWx]

The 12Z GFS/ICON/CMC/Euro/UKMET/GEFS/GEPS look pretty similar to their respective earlier runs. Im still waiting to see if the ICON and especially UKMET are going to do more with this. The JMA fwiw is significantly stronger through the Caribbean with a strong TS in the W Car. The Euro ens mean looks a bit further SW with just a few either recurving off the SE or hitting FL. Many hit from Nicaragua N to the central US Gulf coast.

[Normandy]

Considering guidance, the already impressive organization of this wave, and the ridge this will be running under: the islands are at substantial risk of a major hurricane strike from this system.  The same goes for all interests beyond first landfall as well.  

[Windspeed]

It should be noted that systems who are relatively strong / intensifying coming into the E CAR are far less likely to succumb to fast trades.  Strong systems modify the trades ahead of them with their inflow, especially if they are intensifying.  As an example, hurricane Maria.  Other factors can induce weakening however, but I wouldn’t count on fast wind trades in the E CAR for this one. 

Even weak TCs can and do intensify in the ECARIB, just generally not this early in the season. By August, persistent mid-to-upper level westerlies give away to longer durations of intermittent ULACs between TUTTs, therefore, naturally, there is a higher probability of MDR TCs tracking under a more favorable environment in the ECARIB as we reach ASO. But even well-organized systems generally get shredded in June and July. 2005 remains the craziest anomaly with conditions we usually do not see until late August fast-forwarded to late June, hence Dennis and Emily. But even more typical hyperactive seasons do not see an advanced favorable Caribbean until August. 2017, case in point, Harvey got shredded in the ECARIB before redeveloping in the WCARIB. Later that season, Maria was under a dominate ULAC in the ECARIB on Septermber 16th.

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, Winter Wizard said:

Can you provide the source of this data? Image or link? 

I used this tool, which has a bunch of handy filters

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=4/32/-80

[tiger_deF]

95L is well on its way to becoming a TC, intense burst over its true center and a potent feeder band is establishing itself to the SW.

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, Normandy said:

Considering guidance, the already impressive organization of this wave, and the ridge this will be running under: the islands are at substantial risk of a major hurricane strike from this system.  The same goes for all interests beyond first landfall as well.  

And it is ONLY late June.

[Windspeed]

Nice convective burst going up where an MCV should be located. There may not be a closed LLC yet, but if this persists, it may not take long for one to develop. A depression and eventual tropical storm looks more likely than not at this point. We may have Beryl before the weekend.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

it's so jova for the caribbean if this verifies

[Jebman]

Better start hoisting Tropical Watches up all across the Caribbean Islands.

If I was down there, I'd get on a plane to northern Alberta, just to be safe.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

12 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Better start hoisting Tropical Watches up all across the Caribbean Islands.

If I was down there, I'd get on a plane to northern Alberta, just to be safe.

I don't know why they're only doing upgrades for the CONUS

[Floydbuster]

 

[Yanksfan]

Looks like a TD to me after looking at the latest satellite imagery.

[GaWx]

 Some of my relatives have a long ago planned cruise that starts over weekend from FL and goes to Yucatan/Caymans through 7/2. But then goes to Jamaica on 7/3, Bahamas 7/5, and then back to FL. I said all good thru 7/2 but Jamaica on 7/3 COULD get tricky and smaller chance of an issue in Bahamas+.

 Any other opinions would be appreciated. Does that sound about right? TIA

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
This activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and
environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive. Thus,
further development of this system is anticipated, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the next couple
of days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph towards the
Windward Islands. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

56 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Some of my relatives have a long ago planned cruise that starts over weekend from FL and goes to Yucatan/Caymans through 7/2. But then goes to Jamaica on 7/3, Bahamas 7/5, and then back to FL. I said all good thru 7/2 but Jamaica on 7/3 COULD get tricky and smaller chance of an issue in Bahamas+.

 Any other opinions would be appreciated. Does that sound about right? TIA

 

Implications for the Cruise:

1. Until July 2: The cruise through the Yucatan and Cayman Islands should generally be safe, with the storm expected to remain to the south.
2. July 3 (Jamaica): There is a significant possibility of the storm impacting Jamaica around this date. The models show a potential for the system to be at hurricane strength, which could bring strong winds and heavy rain.
3. July 5 (Bahamas): The Bahamas could experience effects from the storm depending on its path and intensity. If the storm continues its projected track, it may affect this area, but there is more uncertainty compared to the Jamaica forecast.