CoastalWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 That must be it then. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 51 minutes ago, MANDA said: Wouldn't it be a hoot if Beryl turned out to be the strongest system of the 2024 season. You almost want to hope so for U.S. coastal interests. Hopefully Beryl is not a trend setter for what lies ahead for August, September and October. I as a near coastal resident obviously would want that to be the case. But even then a later storm with a 140 mph landfall instead of 150 would of course still be potentially quite devastating/just about as bad. The bar for this season is so high now that not getting another landfall as strong isn't necessarily saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 That's just a straight buzzsaw. 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 No pics or video? Seems unusual for a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Absolutely beautiful, destructive storm. Visible: IR: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 1 minute ago, Prospero said: No pics or video? Seems unusual for a storm like this. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 It's too bad hurricane hunters won't be in there till later because I think Beryl is probably peaking now and would love to see data. Have a feeling by time they get there we will be past the peak. Wouldn't be shocked if Beryl is cat 5 now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Just now, andyhb said: It's obvious they have been through a storm or two before and don't build their buildings out of straw. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Regarding the future track and intensity of Beryl, we have a couple big synoptic players, the SE US ridge and the TUTT extending from the SW Atlantic into the extreme NW Caribbean and west into the GOM. There's a secondary player, a through swinging through the Northern and Central Plains. The ridge and the plains through will mostly dictate the track, while the TUTT, and possible associated ULL, the intensity of Beryl. It appears this hurricane season the SE Atlantic ridge will be anomalously strong, with throughs swinging through the CONUS at high latitudes, unable to weaken the ridge much, or maybe just dig far south enough to nearly collapse the steering currents while the cyclone is just too far south in the Bay of Campeche. The TUTT on the other hand is trickier. It's forecasted to pinch off a ULL, but depending on the timing of this, and how far from the TC it sets up, it will either impart shear, or help ventilate the hurricane. The Euro is flip flopping on this, with the 0z and 12z imparting moderate shear, while the 06z sets the ULL farther to the NW, helping ventilate Beryl. So far, most models favor the shear scenario, but there's a caveat. I'm usually not a fan of the 'hurricanes create their own environment' saying. Synoptic features like mid latitude ridges and throughs are just huge compared to tropical cyclones, so the effect of a TC is usually negligible. That being said, a big and intense TCs may factor in, specially on borderline scenarios, such as this one, where the timing of a ULL pinching off the TUTT and how far it positions itself from the cyclone. A stronger, bigger TC, will have a huge outflow, aiding the ULAC expansion, which can assist to pinch off the ULL from the TUTT earlier, and push it a bit to the NW. Beryl is not that big, but it's not the compact storm it was 24 hours ago. Anyway, that's some food for thought on Beryl's future. 9 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 28 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I feel pretty certain that is a faulty anemometer. FL winds in that area only would support near hurricane force winds. 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I'm not sure about that reading. 25 minutes ago, JoeStafford75 said: I think they meant the Grenada airport located on Carriacou. I've been following the Sandals resort feeds next to the Maurice Bishop Airport and it doesn't seem like they really had any gusts over 50mph. The resort staff is currently setting pool chairs and other items back up for use tomorrow. 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That must be it then. Thanks for the clarification. Thanks, everyone. I’ll pull the post down since it’s inaccurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 8 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: It's too bad hurricane hunters won't be in there till later because I think Beryl is probably peaking now and would love to see data. Have a feeling by time they get there we will be past the peak. Wouldn't be shocked if Beryl is cat 5 now. From NHC 2:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1 Location: 12.8°N 62.3°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 946 mb Max sustained: 150 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 19 minutes ago, MANDA said: This makes much more sense. No way did the Island of Grenada record a gust that high 30 miles or so south of the center. I think we have to wait for more information because, as shown in the graphic Chinook posted, the METAR with the 105 kt gust came from TGPY- Maurice Bishop International Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 2 minutes ago, gymengineer said: I think we have to wait for more information because, as shown in the graphic Chinook posted, the METAR with the 105 kt gust came from TGPY- Maurice Bishop International Airport. I was referring to the 161mph. Was that the smaller airport over Carriacou? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was referring to the 161mph. Was that the smaller airport over Carriacou? The graphic in that now deleted post showed the readings coming from the St. George, Grenada area, so that would also be Maurice Bishop International Airport. It's not all adding up at the moment. Even disregarding the 161 mph gust, there's still a huge difference between 50ish mph gusts as the poster claimed was observed from the webcam vs. a 121 mph gust that the NHC itself posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 10 minutes ago, gymengineer said: I think we have to wait for more information because, as shown in the graphic Chinook posted, the METAR with the 105 kt gust came from TGPY- Maurice Bishop International Airport. I agree, especially since there doesn't seem to be any reporting stations on the small islands that got hit the hardest. FWIW The latest METAR on windy.com says gusts to 67kts 2 hrs ago and 59kts 1 hr ago. Makes way more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I agree, especially since there doesn't seem to be any reporting stations on the small islands that got hit the hardest. FWIW The latest METAR on windy.com says gusts to 67kts 2 hrs ago and 59kts 1 hr ago. Makes way more sense. It's the 12:00 pm observation that's the question right now. See the post right before yours. BTW, so people don't have to google it, Point Salines International Airport is what Bishop International Airport used to be called. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
g0ldl10n Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 How seriously should we take the NAVGEM models forecast.. it's outlook for path making landfall in LA has been pretty consistent over the past few runs.. its forecasted lowest pressure is also right at landfall in these runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: It's the 12:00 pm observation that's the question right now. See the post right before yours. BTW, so people don't have to google it, Point Salines International Airport is what Bishop International Airport used to be called. Could it have been the result of an isolated tornado? No funnel cloud noted in the METAR, but visibility was poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 45 minutes ago, MANDA said: This makes much more sense. No way did the Island of Grenada record a gust that high 30 miles or so south of the center. Maurice Bishop Airport is located on the far SW side of Grenada (Google Earth) FWIW it does have direct somewhat elevated exposure to the W and NW which would put it in a good position to measure higher winds. In any case it would still be too far away to measure a gust of 121 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 12Z UKMET vs 0Z: slightly further N with a little closer to Jamaica and landfall on Yucatan just N of Belize instead in N Belize; final landfall Tampico: HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 60.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 01.07.2024 0 12.1N 60.5W 963 91 0000UTC 02.07.2024 12 13.7N 63.8W 981 71 1200UTC 02.07.2024 24 15.1N 67.7W 986 65 0000UTC 03.07.2024 36 16.0N 71.8W 993 59 1200UTC 03.07.2024 48 16.5N 75.7W 998 52 0000UTC 04.07.2024 60 17.3N 79.0W 1000 45 1200UTC 04.07.2024 72 18.0N 82.9W 1001 37 0000UTC 05.07.2024 84 18.1N 86.0W 1001 37 1200UTC 05.07.2024 96 18.7N 88.4W 1004 33 0000UTC 06.07.2024 108 19.4N 91.7W 1005 36 1200UTC 06.07.2024 120 20.5N 93.5W 1006 40 0000UTC 07.07.2024 132 20.9N 95.6W 1006 35 1200UTC 07.07.2024 144 21.7N 97.0W 1006 32 0000UTC 08.07.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 4 minutes ago, g0ldl10n said: How seriously should we take the NAVGEM models forecast.. it's outlook for path making landfall in LA has been pretty consistent over the past few runs.. its forecasted lowest pressure is also right at landfall in these runs. NAVGEM has never been a great model for hurricanes. Can’t dismiss it entirely but focus on the major global models and the hurricane models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Are there any data reports from Lauriston Carriacou Airport? This facility is located on the north side of Carriacou Island and would have been in a good position to measure that gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 10 minutes ago, g0ldl10n said: How seriously should we take the NAVGEM models forecast.. it's outlook for path making landfall in LA has been pretty consistent over the past few runs.. its forecasted lowest pressure is also right at landfall in these runs. I think at this stage it’s good to focus on ensembles for longer range track or looking at the cluster of reliable operational models. NAVGEM is not on that list imo. I’m particularly a fan of the “super ensemble” that combines the ensembles from major guidance. It doesn’t mean it’ll be right, as @wxmx and others have pointed out there are still important things to resolve in that medium to longer range, but it’s a really helpful place to start. For folks that want access to the graphics above, here’s the site: http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/ 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 15 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z UKMET vs 0Z: slightly further N with a little closer to Jamaica and landfall on Yucatan just N of Belize instead in N Belize; final landfall Tampico: HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 60.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 01.07.2024 0 12.1N 60.5W 963 91 0000UTC 02.07.2024 12 13.7N 63.8W 981 71 1200UTC 02.07.2024 24 15.1N 67.7W 986 65 0000UTC 03.07.2024 36 16.0N 71.8W 993 59 1200UTC 03.07.2024 48 16.5N 75.7W 998 52 0000UTC 04.07.2024 60 17.3N 79.0W 1000 45 1200UTC 04.07.2024 72 18.0N 82.9W 1001 37 0000UTC 05.07.2024 84 18.1N 86.0W 1001 37 1200UTC 05.07.2024 96 18.7N 88.4W 1004 33 0000UTC 06.07.2024 108 19.4N 91.7W 1005 36 1200UTC 06.07.2024 120 20.5N 93.5W 1006 40 0000UTC 07.07.2024 132 20.9N 95.6W 1006 35 1200UTC 07.07.2024 144 21.7N 97.0W 1006 32 0000UTC 08.07.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING 18z hurricane models are a bit closer to Jamaica again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 IMO, higher than average confidence can be put on being a close call for Jamaica and that it will hit the Yucatan and enter the GOM. The second landfall after the Yucatan and the intensity during any of those landfalls are low confidence now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Hunters penetrating Beryl 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think at this stage it’s good to focus on ensembles for longer range track or looking at the cluster of reliable operational models. NAVGEM is not on that list imo. I’m particularly a fan of the “super ensemble” that combines the ensembles from major guidance. It doesn’t mean it’ll be right, as @wxmx and others have pointed out there are still important things to resolve in that medium to longer range, but it’s a really helpful place to start. For folks that want access to the graphics above, here’s the site: http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/ I am concerned for wxmx's safety should Beryl strike Mexico. This is an extremely dangerous hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 It cannot be emphasized enough how unbelievable this is. Not much to say except Beryl has defied pretty much all sense of climatology and conventional wisdom. It's going to be a long season. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said: It cannot be emphasized enough how unbelievable this is. Not much to say except Beryl has defied pretty much all sense of climatology and conventional wisdom. It's going to be a long season. The fact it achieved this intensity so rapidly in an environment that wasn’t exactly pristine is all the more impressive. Other canes have had environments more conductive and failed to take advantage of the opportunity. Beryl more than achieved its peak. Really have to credit the high pressure overhead Beryl that aided in ventilation at the perfect time, right when diurnal max was peak. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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