dan11295 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 With the size of that eye after the ERC there were unfortunately be a direct strike on at least a couple of the islands. The biggest question is can Beryl gain enough latitude to avoid Grenada getting part of the eyewall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 We fervently need to hope HARD that we have record shear in the Caribbean. I could mourn the Windwards for the next forty years, but this is only the very beginning of what looks to be one heck of a tribulation of a hurricane season. I would not want to be in the US Insurance business right now. That Barbados radar is absolutely HIDEOUS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Recon finding stronger winds than last nights flight. Seems to support the current intensity, though I am sure it dropped below MH for a period early this morning 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 130 knot FL wind on that northeast pass, pressure dropping. Oh boy... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 3 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 130 knot FL wind on that northeast pass, pressure dropping. Oh boy... Yep… SFMR winds above 120 too. This is back to a 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 130 mph 959 mb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Good News: this looks like it has gained enough latitude that the worst of the core might pass just to the north of Grenada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Good News: this looks like it has gained enough latitude that the worst of the core might pass just to the north of Grenada. Per the NHC track, the worst may miss Canouan to the south as well. Which puts a few very tiny islands in it's path, the largest of which has about 3,000 inhabitants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Some crazy winds on that last pass. May make a run at 150+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Wow. Dropsonde found 132kt at the surface in the N eyewall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Giant buzzsaw mode.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Has the radar presentation of a 5… Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 You can see some mesovortices rotating around the eye, similar to Michael’s presentation just before landfall. I have no doubt there are some cat 5 winds in some of these. This thing is high end and mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Per the NHC track, the worst may miss Canouan to the south as well. Which puts a few very tiny islands in it's path, the largest of which has about 3,000 inhabitants Canouan might miss the northern eyewall just to the island's south. Watching any jog closely, as any is critical. Unfortunately, Carriacou and Union Islands and the Petites are in big trouble. Might be a landfall point inside the eye. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 3 hours ago, Jebman said: We fervently need to hope HARD that we have record shear in the Caribbean. I could mourn the Windwards for the next forty years, but this is only the very beginning of what looks to be one heck of a tribulation of a hurricane season. I would not want to be in the US Insurance business right now. That Barbados radar is absolutely HIDEOUS! Are you the guy that used to like to walk in heavy snow in the Mid Atlantic forum? Anyway, the trend is your friend and the Buda-Kyle-San Marcos metro is about 150 miles inland. All the major globals now take what is left of Beryl after the Yucatan into Mexico. Texas isn't 100% safe, Beryl tries to turn N on most of the models but starts too late. Ensembles do show a gap between the Atlantic ridge and the Sonoran ridge, but too late to turn a weakened Beryl. If the timing changes, that changes where Beryl feels the trough between the ridges. But the globals and ensembles are Texas' friend. Jamaica and Yucatan's friend as well, most show significant weakening before it gets there. I think once the Windwards are clear, after a significant hurricane, the threat lowers. I'd be nervous about the break in the ridge, but almost all the models have a weaker system for the Yucatan that won't feel the approaching trough because it is weak until it is very close to Mexico. So not 100% confident, but I think the odds of a US impact are dropping. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1807774281310281865?t=tNPW2luQAJKikw3rOZSZgQ&s=19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Unreal now the EWRC has finished. She could make a run for a high 4. I’m worried for residents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 That eyewall is cranking. Anxious what the next recon pass finds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Some pics of Union Island and Palm Island down there from a family vacation a few years ago. Soon to be paradise lost. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Wonder what the pressure readings are on Petit Martinique. Should be dropping fast right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 12 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Unreal now the EWRC has finished. She could make a run for a high 4. I’m worried for residents. I bet she already is high end cat 4. The satellite loop showing on the CNN home page is a terrifying sight. Really shows the rapid recovery and symmetry of the eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Spectacular satellite presentation. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop60.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Next pass coming up. Should be final pass before it passes the islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Just holy hell.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Landfall imminent next 15-30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Carriacou and Union Island are getting absolutely smashed right now. For reference, this is perhaps the most powerful hurricane to ever affect this portion of the Windward Islands. The catastrophic 1780 hurricane was likely more intense, but it passed further north with a direct hit on Barbados. Only Ivan and (less so) Janet are comparisons in the modern era. Utterly insane for this to be happening on July 1st. 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Carriacou Is going to get swept clean. Seems this monster is still strengthening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 35 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Some pics of Union Island and Palm Island down there from a family vacation a few years ago. Soon to be paradise lost. I don't know how many are insured. Being on a hill as some are less than a mile from the ocean and a major hurricane tells me a lot of homes will lose roofs, Inike in Kawaii style. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Looks less menacing for the US in the longer term, but far too early to write it off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 https://x.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1807790780746174883?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now