WEATHER53 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Of all the times to have friends in Barbados ! what’s it looking like for 13.2 N. 59.5 and what time frame? Thank you for the help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Island roulette is tricky business though. Any wobble especially on a smaller storm like this and you’re flying out for TS winds. Obviously but that’s why you chase is to nail storms like this. Also these eastern carribean storms usually are a little more predictable especially when they are chugging along at good speeds embedded in easterlies. If this was a cat 1/2 yea don’t do it, but this is going to be a historic 4/5 impact and he’s probably the best at documenting from the field, so that is upsetting for those who love his content like me. This just feels like one on a growing list of misses for Josh. He hasn’t chased since October and is missing two historic impacts in a row. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 41 minutes ago, Jebman said: 113 knots is roughly 130 miles per hour. On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, a Category 4 hurricane has sustained winds of 130–156 miles per hour (mph). These winds are considered extremely dangerous and can cause catastrophic damage, including: Structural damage: Well-built homes can sustain severe damage, with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Unanchored structures can be completely destroyed, and extensive damage is likely to doors and windows. Tree damage: Most trees will be snapped or uprooted. Power outages: Power outages can last weeks to possibly months, leaving most of the area uninhabitable for weeks or months. Of course. I was more asking about (what appears to me to be) the major initialization discrepancy for the 06z euro. That is, euro showing 55kts when measured was over 100 kts at approximately the same time. just trying to sus out which model’s got the best pulse on the storm today. IMO, GFS and HAFS initialized much closer to actual conditions at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Obviously but that’s why you chase is to nail storms like this. Also these eastern carribean storms usually are a little more predictable especially when they are chugging along at good speeds embedded in easterlies. If this was a cat 1/2 yea don’t do it, but this is going to be a historic 4/5 impact and he’s probably the best at documenting from the field, so that is upsetting for those who love his content like me. This just feels like one on a growing list of misses for Josh. He hasn’t chased since October and is missing two historic impacts in a row. No they're not any more predictable than any other storm. This is not a miss. It is smart. He is a core puncher. He doesn't settle for slop. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 I’m crushed as well that Josh isn’t chasing this. I get it,this core won’t be easy to nail but his documentation of this event stood the chance to be an all timer. Not to mention the scientific data he gets. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 I'm not sure JM can even get to one of the Grenadines before the airports close. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 What chasers are covering this storm? Need to get my social media searches prepped for tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 I’m with you guys as well, but I’m not so sure Josh isn’t playing it smart on this one, showing up last minute to what could be a cat 5 or close to cat 5 storm on a very small island, even in the most secure structure for a guy with a lot of money is a risky proposition. The data and everything would be amazing and I know these guys go into risky situations but sometimes you gotta know when you messing with a beast that isn’t normal. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 4 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: I’m with you guys as well, but I’m not so sure Josh isn’t playing it smart on this one, showing up last minute to what could be a cat 5 or close to cat 5 storm on a very small island, even in the most secure structure for a guy with a lot of money is a risky proposition. The data and everything would be amazing and I know these guys go into risky situations but sometimes you gotta know when you messing with a beast that isn’t normal. . The islands are difficult to chase because you can't reposition without getting a boat or plane. The Yucatan is more chasable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 21 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said: Of course. I was more asking about (what appears to me to be) the major initialization discrepancy for the 06z euro. That is, euro showing 55kts when measured was over 100 kts at approximately the same time. just trying to sus out which model’s got the best pulse on the storm today. IMO, GFS and HAFS initialized much closer to actual conditions at the time. Annual reminder that global models can't completely resolve TC cores and their pressures/winds are not meant to be taken verbatim. That's what the regional hurricane models are for, and Beryl has been outperforming those which is rather unusual, given their known tendency to overcook these systems. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: Annual reminder that global models can't completely resolve TC cores and their pressures/winds are not meant to be taken verbatim. That's what the regional hurricane models are for, and Beryl has been outperforming those which is rather unusual, given their known tendency to overcook these systems quite often. Exactly what I was looking for. I knew that — but had forgotten it. Thanks! so the (very) basic idea is to look at global and hurricane models (for details that are smaller than global resolution can discriminate), then apply those small resolution features to the bigger picture the globals are showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 33 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: i mean he built a hurricane resistant house in MS - maybe he should invest in a "hurricane-resistant" boat to puncture these storms over the open water lol Hurricane version of the Dominator/TIV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Icon and CMC both show a strengthening strong hurricane making landfall in Texas. Still 7 days out but I wouldn't discount a chaseable situation on the gulf coast. That's why Josh moved to the gulf coast, he can just make a day trip drive from his house to chase a storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 46 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Of all the times to have friends in Barbados ! what’s it looking like for 13.2 N. 59.5 and what time frame? Thank you for the help. Can I get an update? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Can I get an update? Thanks So right now, Beryl has been on the southerly side of the forecasted track, so I would say the risk to the Barbados of a direct impact has dropped. That being said, strong hurricanes tend to wobble, so there is a chance Beryl could take a more Northern path in the short term, increasing the risk. Storm surge will be an issue but likely not a major one, as Beryl’s small core is not going to generate as large of a fetch of water, especially given that it has done most of its strengthening recently. Impacts will probably peak 24 hours from now, give or take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 NHC still has Beryl going W at the 2 PM advisory but to my untrained eye it sure seems to have taken a WNW turn over the past hour or two . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 55 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: I’m with you guys as well, but I’m not so sure Josh isn’t playing it smart on this one, showing up last minute to what could be a cat 5 or close to cat 5 storm on a very small island, even in the most secure structure for a guy with a lot of money is a risky proposition. The data and everything would be amazing and I know these guys go into risky situations but sometimes you gotta know when you messing with a beast that isn’t normal. . That has zero to do with his decision.....he just doesn't like the odds of hitting the core. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 21 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Can I get an update? Thanks I think it should go south of them....at least the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 42 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Annual reminder that global models can't completely resolve TC cores and their pressures/winds are not meant to be taken verbatim. That's what the regional hurricane models are for, and Beryl has been outperforming those which is rather unusual, given their known tendency to overcook these systems. This can't be stressed enough.....larger scale features that impact track and intensity trends are more meaningful on those courser global tools. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 2 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: NHC still has Beryl going W at the 2 PM advisory but to my untrained eye it sure seems to have taken a WNW turn over the past hour or two . It's clearly north of due west. The current 5-hour satelite loop on TT shows the eye starting at 10.5 N and ends at 11 N. At the same time it went 1.5 degrees latitude. So the slope of the path is roughly 1/3. That track would miss Barbados and probably just south of the Saint Vincent island, bringing it through one of the small Grenadines islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Any sign of a concentric eye wall yet? I would be surprised if Beryl doesn't begin an EWRC prior to direct impact with the Windwards given the size/structure attm......which may not be good news because the more intense/tighter system may very well miss all of the larger islands with the truly dangerous winds. It probably wouldn't have much time to expand, though....myabe just drop the max sustained winds. I feel like beginning an EWRC PRIOR to encountering the more hostile environment in the Caribbean will be key to its ability to reintensify down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 8 minutes ago, cptcatz said: It's clearly north of due west. The current 5-hour satelite loop on TT shows the eye starting at 10.5 N and ends at 11 N. At the same time it went 1.5 degrees latitude. So the slope of the path is roughly 1/3. That track would miss Barbados and probably just south of the Saint Vincent island, bringing it through one of the small Grenadines islands. Agree, it's clearly WNW (285 heading) now. Looks to miss Barbados to the south, but unconformably close. It's a compact storm, so the effects may be limited to TS sustained winds with possible hurricane gusts, torrential rain and a significant storm surge, but nothing catastrophic. But I would keep a wary eye, since deviating 70 miles to the North would make a big difference 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 I agree. I would be shocked if this didn’t begin an ERC before the islands. It’s just so rare to see storms of this magnitude remain steady state for 24 hours. That being said, there are NO signs that one has begun or that Beryl has finished deepening. It is a spectacular specimen at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Euro initializes at 996, crosses the islands at 990, continues to deepen in the eastern Caribbean reaching Jamaica at a staggering 966, and then weakens. This is similar to what Icon showed. The question is are these models correct with how conducive for strengthening the eastern Caribbean is? Both models showed it deepening by 30 mb in that time. Could we be seeing a 930 mb storm near Jamaica? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 54 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: So right now, Beryl has been on the southerly side of the forecasted track, so I would say the risk to the Barbados of a direct impact has dropped. That being said, strong hurricanes tend to wobble, so there is a chance Beryl could take a more Northern path in the short term, increasing the risk. Storm surge will be an issue but likely not a major one, as Beryl’s small core is not going to generate as large of a fetch of water, especially given that it has done most of its strengthening recently. Impacts will probably peak 24 hours from now, give or take Thank you About how far south of Barbados will the serious damage be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 New towers exploding around the eye on the visible rn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Extreme outer bands will start impacting the islands by nightfall. This is on the doorstep. This is getting very real, very fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Barbados radar: https://www.barbadosweather.org/Radars/LeafScripts/BMSRadarProducts.php 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 15 minutes ago, marsman said: Barbados radar: https://www.barbadosweather.org/Radars/LeafScripts/BMSRadarProducts.php That’s going to be the most viewed radar of the year (possibly) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 I've not anything to say that hasn't already been added. Pretty unbelievable events unfolding. Got to hope Beryl's eye threads the needle between islands to mitigate eyewall impacts as much as possible. Also, as is typical with intense TCs, hopefully, Beryl has maxed out early enough that an ERC would limit any further intensification. However, structural changes are difficult to predict. Never thought we'd see a Cat 4 in this part of the Atlantic in June, even if we are on July's doorstep. Usually, climatology wins out, and it still may win out by the time Beryl reaches the central Caribbean to allow windshear to counter MPI there, but we have several days to figure that out still. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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