buckeyefan1 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 minute ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Knew it Stop posting every thought you have 17 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 From a met on S2K. Absolute insanity 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 960 mb extrap, 132 kt SFMR on latest recon pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Barbados is very fortunate that Beryl has tracked a good degree farther south than earlier projected. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 That’s a Cat 4, FL winds of 126 kts and a less suspect SFMR of 124 kts. Easily should be enough to push it to 115 kts. Unprecedented. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 960 mb extrap, 132 kt SFMR on latest recon pass. Insane, stronger than any of last nights hurricane models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 also it's kinda crazy how far south this is right? It'll be moving not too far offshore of coastal Guyana and Venezuela lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: also it's kinda crazy how far south this is right? It'll be moving not too far offshore of coastal Guyana and Venezuela lol I don't recall there being a hurricane in this far south location since Ivan in '04. It doesn't happen often. The vast majority of storms that form in the MDR lift northward away from 10N pretty quickly as they organize. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 My friend is currently in St Lucia. Very bad spot to be at right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Interesting run of the Icon coming in right now. Obviously it's initializing way too high at 1004 mb but by the time it hits the islands it's down to 989 and then it continues to intensify all the way through the eastern Caribbean to where it's at 971 just south of Jamaica in 72 hours. The massive takeaway from that is it's forecasting an extremely conducive environment for the next 3 days... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 14 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: also it's kinda crazy how far south this is right? It'll be moving not too far offshore of coastal Guyana and Venezuela lol I was thinking that too. An onlooker in Suriname can probably see the cloud canopy rotating toward the east with ease. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 9 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Interesting run of the Icon coming in right now. Obviously it's initializing way too high at 1004 mb but by the time it hits the islands it's down to 989 and then it continues to intensify all the way through the eastern Caribbean to where it's at 971 just south of Jamaica in 72 hours. The massive takeaway from that is it's forecasting an extremely conducive environment for the next 3 days... Yep. And if it can fight off shear in the western Caribbean, look out. I get a bad feeling it’ll find a weakness in the ridge to the north but one thing at a time for now I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Cat 4 confirmed 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 New normal 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Yep. And if it can fight off shear in the western Caribbean, look out. I get a bad feeling it’ll find a weakness in the ridge to the north but one thing at a time for now I suppose. Intense hurricanes often create their own weather nearby, impacting shear. Additionally annular hurricanes require light shear to enter a sustained category 5 state. Will be interesting to watch it in this over the next few days to see how the storm and shear interact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 First June Cat 4 EVER. damn. 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Just wait till tonight when we see the first June cat 5 ever. Special special storm that will be talked about forever 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 minute ago, Normandy said: Just wait till tonight when we see the first June cat 5 ever. Special special storm that will be talked about forever I’m still skeptical that Beryl will achieve cat 5 intensity, certainly possible but one EWRC would torpedo those chances. Frankly I think that could actually be worse, since the storm would expand appreciably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: First June Cat 4 EVER. damn. Beryl is also the first Cat 4 in the tropical Atlantic (east of the Caribbean) in June OR July. Previous earliest was Allen, which obtained Cat 4 status on August 4, 1980. 4 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Not sure how much reliance to put into Icon but this run brings it into Galveston at its lowest pressure of the run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 37 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: also it's kinda crazy how far south this is right? It'll be moving not too far offshore of coastal Guyana and Venezuela lol Location, location, location Beryl and 96L were given a tremendous runway by virtue of coming off Africa pretty far south and being embedded in the monsoon trough. Even a few degrees further north and it’s a much different story. Makes this all the more extraordinary. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Caveat: this was a very quick glance so some of the numbers might be a bit off. But I believe the overall notion is correct. Looking at today's 06z runs vs recon data, it appears like the euro is too weak compared to what recon is seeing: From the 06z models (from 12z output) --- Euro - 999 mb @ 55 surface kts. GFS - 978 mb @ 113 surface kts. Recon (at 13:22z) - 974 mb @ 113 surface kts IMO that's a fairly large discrepancy. I would think this delta between initialized param vs measured param could have a pretty significant on storm track. Mainly, Beryl moving north quicker than euro shows. Will be interesting to see how the euro changes on the 12z run assuming this measured data is used for initialization. Anyone see any errors or invalid assumptions in my logic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Absolutely beyond belief. This is June 30th? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 16 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said: Caveat: this was a very quick glance so some of the numbers might be a bit off. But I believe the overall notion is correct. Looking at today's 06z runs vs recon data, it appears like the euro is too weak compared to what recon is seeing: From the 06z models (from 12z output) --- Euro - 999 mb @ 55 surface kts. GFS - 978 mb @ 113 surface kts. Recon (at 13:22z) - 974 mb @ 113 surface kts IMO that's a fairly large discrepancy. I would think this delta between initialized param vs measured param could have a pretty significant on storm track. Mainly, Beryl moving north quicker than euro shows. Will be interesting to see how the euro changes on the 12z run assuming this measured data is used for initialization. Anyone see any errors or invalid assumptions in my logic? 113 knots is roughly 130 miles per hour. On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, a Category 4 hurricane has sustained winds of 130–156 miles per hour (mph). These winds are considered extremely dangerous and can cause catastrophic damage, including: Structural damage: Well-built homes can sustain severe damage, with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Unanchored structures can be completely destroyed, and extensive damage is likely to doors and windows. Tree damage: Most trees will be snapped or uprooted. Power outages: Power outages can last weeks to possibly months, leaving most of the area uninhabitable for weeks or months. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 do we think it hits Cat 5 before midnight UTC? That would be a stretch I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 https://x.com/icyclone/status/1807439753542807693?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 12 minutes ago, jrips27 said: https://x.com/icyclone/status/1807439753542807693?s=46 That’s a mistake. This is going to be a weakened mess later on. I do not believe this makes another landfall as a hurricane. Cannot imagine missing a high end impact after he missed Otis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: That’s a mistake. This is going to be a weakened mess later on. I do not believe this makes another landfall as a hurricane. Cannot imagine missing a high end impact after he missed Otis. Island roulette is tricky business though. Any wobble especially on a smaller storm like this and you’re flying out for TS winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Island roulette is tricky business though. Any wobble especially on a smaller storm like this and you’re flying out for TS winds. i mean he built a hurricane resistant house in MS - maybe he should invest in a "hurricane-resistant" boat to puncture these storms over the open water lol 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now