SolidIcewx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 7 hours ago, Scott747 said: The jargon/slang/baby talk or whatever you want to call it is becoming tedious.... My gen Z children and even my teen don’t talk with all that dumb slang 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 The only thing that stops this from being a cat 4-5 strike somewhere on the windwards is an ERC. This storm is going to town with 0 inhibiting factors. What a storm for June. Eye candy 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 No chance of this curving northward, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 5 mb drop in an hour... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 12 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 5 mb drop in an hour... Keep in mind that’s an extrapolated pressure per the VDM. That said, it’s probably dropping like a rock still. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 minute ago, konksw said: Wat. Translation: lol, Beryl has beaten up the other June named storms to dust. she will be the bar for all future early season storms 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 9 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Jfl at Beryl mogging the other junecels to utter oblivion she is the bar for all future early season storms I rarely post here, but I had to for this. This isn't my weather forum, but if you did post this at my weather forum I would ban you. Your jargon in your posts isn't appreciated. This storm will affect, and likely end, real lives. It is ok to be excited by the weather. I get that, but we also need to be cognoscente and respectful to the fact it affects real people. Have some tact. Keep your memespeak over at kiwifarms. 23 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 9 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Translation: lol, Beryl has beaten up the other June named storms to dust. she will be the bar for all future early season storms Keep it to this and stop the slang 11 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Umm, let’s just talk weather, please. Extrapolated pressure down to 963.3mb. Awaiting center dropsonde. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 This is robust to say the least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Recon reveals an almost perfectly symmetrical core. My jaw has hit the floor. It’s still June in the MDR and we have this?!?!?! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Recon reveals an almost perfectly symmetrical core. My jaw has hit the floor. It’s still June in the MDR and we have this?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Presentation has gone buzz saw mode. I hope everyone is getting off the islands in the path that can. Shades of a Maria situation but further south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Impressive core, no hints of eyewall replacement yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 50 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 5 mb drop in an hour... Its even ahead schedule for my bullish call from last night. Going to break the June record by mid afternoon at this pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 C5 is possible in this region right now due to high ocean heat content. With that dropsonde it looks like Beryl is almost a C4 already. C5 is not out of the question in the next day or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 A lot of discussion on X about this being anomalous from a time standpoint but hell- when was the last time the southern Antilles were impacted by a major? I truly can’t remember. This will have a painful impact on areas that have been fortunate to dodge an active Atlantic cycle to this point. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 5 minutes ago, BooneWX said: A lot of discussion on X about this being anomalous from a time standpoint but hell- when was the last time the southern Antilles were impacted by a major? I truly can’t remember. This will have a painful impact on areas that have been fortunate to dodge an active Atlantic cycle to this point. Probably the most impactful strike since 2004? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 22 minutes ago, BooneWX said: A lot of discussion on X about this being anomalous from a time standpoint but hell- when was the last time the southern Antilles were impacted by a major? I truly can’t remember. This will have a painful impact on areas that have been fortunate to dodge an active Atlantic cycle to this point. A quick look at NOAAs Historical tracks has both David (1979) and Allen (1980) hitting around there. EDIT: Ivan as well in 2004, per WxWatcher007 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 3 minutes ago, JonClaw said: A quick look at NOAAs Historical tracks has both David (1979) and Allen (1980) hitting around there. Just found this on twitter but it’s unofficial I REPEAT THIS IS UNOFFICIAL! we don't have any recon evidence showing it a cat 4 nor it rapidly intensifying right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Looking to back to the first TD advisory (Friday 5pm, not even 48 hours ago), the NHC forecasted at this point it would be between 60 and 75 mph storm. With the 8am being at 115 mph and coming up on the full 11am advisory in a few minutes, any guesses on what the max forecast will be? I say they forecast 135 mph by tomorrow morning with an actual recorded max of 145 mph before leveling out in the Caribbean. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 3 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Looking to back to the first TD advisory (Friday 5pm, not even 48 hours ago), the NHC forecasted at this point it would be between 60 and 75 mph storm. With the 8am being at 115 mph and coming up on the full 11am advisory in a few minutes, any guesses on what the max forecast will be? I say they forecast 135 mph by tomorrow morning with an actual recorded max of 145 mph before leveling out in the Caribbean. I predict 140 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 13 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Looking to back to the first TD advisory (Friday 5pm, not even 48 hours ago), the NHC forecasted at this point it would be between 60 and 75 mph storm. With the 8am being at 115 mph and coming up on the full 11am advisory in a few minutes, any guesses on what the max forecast will be? I say they forecast 135 mph by tomorrow morning with an actual recorded max of 145 mph before leveling out in the Caribbean. Now 120 Hurricane Beryl Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...VERY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING... 11:00 AM AST Sun Jun 30 Location: 10.7°N 54.9°W Moving: W at 21 mph Min pressure: 964 mb Max sustained: 120 mph Public Advisory #81100 AM AST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 The Grenadines look to be in for a world of hurt. Hope people are gtfo asap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 140 it is: 000 WTNT42 KNHC 301445 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 Data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters this morning indicate that Beryl continues to rapidly intensify. Based on the data collected, the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to 964 mb and the maximum wind speed is now up to 105 kt. Although Beryl is still on the small side, the wind field is a little larger than previously noted with the tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend up to 100 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds up to 25 n mi from the eye. Satellite images show that Beryl has a classic major hurricane pattern with a clear and circular eye and symmetric convective pattern surrounding it. Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. The hurricane has been moving a little to the south of most of the model predictions over the past day or two. A continued quick west to west-northwest motion is forecast during the next several days as the ridge remains the primary steering feature. This should take the core of Beryl across the Windward Islands Monday morning and then across much the Caribbean Sea during the following few days. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the south of the previous prediction and lies close to the various consensus aids. The major hurricane has rapidly intensified since it formed a couple of days ago, and given the continued conducive environmental conditions and compact inner core, it will likely strengthen some more through tonight. Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands. The models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl's intensity to level off and then gradually weaken. However, Beryl is expected to remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days. The intensity forecast is a little above the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be rushed to completion today. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands through Monday. 4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week and interests in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress, There is large forecast uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and users should not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 10.7N 54.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 11.2N 57.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 60.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 15.6N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.2N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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