40/70 Benchmark Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just east of downtown Bay City (WxW) Nailed the track, but too strong (95 vs 80 MPH), as suspected. Meh. If this thing had another 12-24 hours....woof. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 The intensity guidance on this was exceptional. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 This has way over preformed expectations. I recorded a 81 mph gust right as I lost power. Been in the ne eyewall for a solid hour. Damage in the southern part of Brazoria might surprise some folks. It certainly hasn't felt like a borderline cat 1. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 5 minutes ago, Scott747 said: This has way over preformed expectations. I recorded a 81 mph gust right as I lost power. Been in the ne eyewall for a solid hour. Damage in the southern part of Brazoria might surprise some folks. It certainly hasn't felt like a borderline cat 1. Damage may be more consistent with a two given it was intensifying quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nailed the track, but too strong (95 vs 80 MPH), as suspected. Meh. If this thing had another 12-24 hours....woof. 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Damage may be more consistent with a two given it was intensifying quickly. On that last pass those FL winds were really picking up. I’m guessing some of that mixed down even inland. It was rocking here for a while. Dry air kept this in check, otherwise, we’d be looking at a totally different landscape at first light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Minimum pressure of 979.8 & 980.3 on my devices. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Lightning showing up on the western side of the eyewall right now. Still quiet here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 8 Author Share Posted July 8 Power has gone out a few times. Windy and raining 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Sure it’s been said a few times but thank god this thing didn’t have 12-18 more hours over water. It fixed its issues in a hurry last night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Impressive amount of 80+ mph gusts recorded for an 80 mph storm in a semi remote part of the coast. Storm was clearly mixing winds to surface efficiently. As someone said earlier, an intensifying storm at landfall has an edge to it. I’m pretty impressed with the models on this one too. They nailed the last minute intensification. If it hadn’t ingested all that dry air after the Yucatán this would have been a major for Texas. Great tracking storm though and hopefully the damage isn’t too bad. Beryl will go down in history for its vicious impact on the grenadines and Jamaica, its ridiculous strength for June/early July, and tenacity in the Caribbean. Hopefully the US flooding is tempered, seeing some high rainfall totals beginning to show up in the Houston metro. Just a wild storm start to finish. Our ACE is now where it should be in September. I know one storm has little impact on how the season will go but man this feels ominous 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Beryl does seem to be overperforming local predictions for rainfall and wind gusts. One of the news stations said that power outages may approach the level of Ike. Further update: Justin Michael has achieved the unthinkable, surpassing Reynolds Wolf as The Worst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Storm orientation is worst case disaster scenario setup for Houston. They are extremely lucky this isn’t a Cat 4+ monster. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 8AM CDT: couple of cities HOUSTON HOBBY LGT RAIN 79 77 94 SE49G76 29.33 BAY CITY CLOUDY 73 73 98 W46G60 29.36R Just 2 hours earlier the pressure was 28.94 in Bay City and 29.49 in Houston Hobby (HH). Note the 77 dewpoint at HH allowing for flooding rainfall. Winds gusted to 76 there at 7:53 AM CDT! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 KHOU 081313Z 14038G73KT 1SM -RA BR SCT015 OVC020 26/25 A2930 RMK AO2 PK WND 14073/1308 LTG DSNT SE PRESFR P0006 T02610256 $ 84 mph gust at Houston Hobby in last 20 minutes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 2 hours ago, Scott747 said: This has way over preformed expectations. I recorded a 81 mph gust right as I lost power. Been in the ne eyewall for a solid hour. Damage in the southern part of Brazoria might surprise some folks. It certainly hasn't felt like a borderline cat 1. A strengthening 1 is often worse than a weakening 2. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Beryl appears to gradually be increasing forward motion. Must be feeling the trough. Flooding is occurring, but hopefully, Beryl can lift out by this afternoon, and the metro can avoid any trailing feeders off the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Interesting that Harris County wasn't included in the inland Hurricane Warning. The gusts being reported now in the Houston metro would have warranted it in hindsight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Houston getting 80 mph gusts is impressive for an 80 mph hurricane that came ashore nearly 85 miles away 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 A strengthening 1 is often worse than a weakening 2.As has been repeated, an intensifying eyewall and associated bands with strong convection mix down more efficiently versus an eyewall that is falling apart with gusts that are merely gradient driven. I am not surprised by all the 80+ mph gust reports. There are plenty of examples of rapidly weakening category 3 hurricanes that had very spotty or limited 90-115 mph gusts. Though we have limited data currently, this same hurricane may have been exactly such an example on its landfall in the Yucatán. Most reports were unimpressive versus the reports out of Jamaica. There is no need to bring up Carriacou, Union, and the Grenadines, which were devastated.100% certain Beryl will be retired. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Another 84 mph gust Hobby, 79 MPH IAH, 8-9" rain has falling now in metro Houston. Once the core passes them looks like they should start to dry out though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 From NHC at 8AM CDT: A mesonet station (FRPT2) in Freeport recently reported a wind gust of 94 mph (151 km/h). A National Ocean Service (NOS) station (GNJT2) at the entrance to Galveston Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 73 mph (117 km/h) and a gust of 82 mph (131 km/h). A USGS gauge at Galveston Railroad Bridge recently reported an inundation of 3.6 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 95.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Just out from NHC (9AM CDT): Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 900 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE HOUSTON AREA... ...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Houston Hobby Airport (KHOU) recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 84 mph (135 km/h). A National Ocean Service (NOS) station at Morgans Point recently measured a sustained wind of 66 mph (106 km/h) and a gust to 77 mph (124 km/h). SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 95.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Impressive impacts as many have stated, definitely more like what you'd see with a cat 2 LF. Also going to echo that if this had even 12 more hours, (lets not talk about 24), the wind impacts to Houston might have more on par with Ike level+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Approaching 2 million customers out. Core of highest winds definitely tracked right over Houston. This is a serious outage-producing storm 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Beryl may end up being the most expensive Cat 1 landfall just from wind damage. Katrina was pretty high due to Miami. It's never good when you have an eyewall cross over a densely populated metropolitan and residential area, not even a Cat 1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 46 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Houston getting 80 mph gusts is impressive for an 80 mph hurricane that came ashore nearly 85 miles away Yes this hurricane's large size gives it more total energy and more impact - thus its peak winds (category) are only part of the story. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 18 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Impressive impacts as many have stated, definitely more like what you'd see with a cat 2 LF. Also going to echo that if this had even 12 more hours, (lets not talk about 24), the wind impacts to Houston might have more on par with Ike level+. Yes, local officials think this may surpass Ike both in the percentage of the population that loses power and the cumulative amount/speed of wind. Even though Ike was a Cat 2 landfall, most of the Houston area was not on the dirty side of that storm. Beryl put more of the metro on the dirty side, Also a lot of locations have exceeded predictions for both sustained winds and gusts. The total damage will also be magnified by the fact that 2 million more people live in the Houston area compared to 2008 (7.6 million estimated now.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't agree with your analysis at all. Window for 3, albeit always only ajar a hair, is now just about closed and the window for cat 2 is closing. But we shall see- Side note - I will say nice analysis on your part here. I truly expected this to tighten up more rapidly then it did. In this manner, I am happy to be wrong and wanted to say nice job on your analysis. That withstanding, seeing observations, I do wonder if the energy of the storm and category 1 winds across a much broader area for an extended period of time actually is causing more damage than a Cat 3 at Landfall. I guess therein lies the two edged sword. Either way, a learning experience and something to tuck into the back of my head for the future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Power outage numbers now surpass the height of Ike outages. Speaking of Ike, I have two different people who have texted this experience is scarier than Ike for them. Maybe because Ike was fully nocturnal and they're getting the brunt in daylight hours, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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