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Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas


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Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number  38...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Correct break point to Port Bolivar in Tropical Storm Warning

...BERYL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ALONG THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST EARLY MONDAY...
...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE,
FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 95.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch from San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar has been
upgraded to a Hurricane Warning.

The Hurricane Warning south of Mesquite Bay has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Baffin Bay has been
discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Mesquite Bay to
Port Aransas.
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Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Radar and satellite trends suggest Beryl is becoming better
organized tonight. Deep convection has increased near the center,
with new convective elements emerging around the northern and
southern portions of the circulation. Tail Doppler Radar data from
the NOAA aircraft suggest the radius of maximum wind has contracted
a bit, and the vortex has become more vertically aligned. However,
the eyewall is open to the west, where there is still some evidence
of dry air in the circulation. The intensity was raised to 60 kt
based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level
wind data (66 kt at 700 mb), and the most recent aircraft pass
through the northeast quadrant still supports the 60-kt intensity
for this advisory. The minimum pressure has continued to slowly
fall, with the latest dropsonde data supporting 986 mb.

The environmental and oceanic conditions remain quite favorable for
intensification while Beryl approaches the Texas coast overnight.
The recent structural changes noted above are expected to allow
Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane overnight, and the potential
for significant intensification leading up to landfall is still
indicated by some of the regional hurricane guidance, particularly
the HWRF and HMON. At this point, time is the greatest limiting
factor as the storm is less than 12 h from landfall. While the 12-h
forecast point shows a 65-kt hurricane inland over Texas, the peak
intensity is expected between now and the 12-h forecast point, and
is thus not explicitly shown in this forecast. After landfall, rapid
weakening is expected while the system moves farther inland.

The long-term motion of Beryl is north-northwestward at about 9 kt,
but recent radar and aircraft fixes have shown a motion just east of
due north. A northward motion overnight is expected to bring the
center of Beryl inland along the middle Texas coast roughly between
Matagorda Bay and Freeport early on Monday morning. The short-term
NHC track forecast is just slightly east of the previous one. After
landfall, Beryl is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a
mid-latitude trough while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 27.6N  95.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 29.2N  95.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/0000Z 31.5N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/1200Z 33.7N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/0000Z 36.0N  90.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  10/1200Z 38.4N  87.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  11/0000Z 40.4N  84.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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13 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Pretty confident we got a hurricane now. Northern eyewall velocities continue to tick higher and higher with each scan, they're about to do a pass through it so we'll see for sure in a few minutes.

Nevermind, we won't know because of cheapness of our government and tools breaking.

recon_AF306-3102A-BERYL_zoom.png

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  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 513 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES     IN SOUTHEAST TX AND INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALVIN, ANAHUAC, ANGLETON, BAY CITY,   CLEVELAND, CLUTE, CONROE, DAYTON, DICKINSON, FIRST COLONY,   FREEPORT, FRIENDSWOOD, GALVESTON, HOUSTON, LAKE JACKSON, LEAGUE CITY, LIBERTY, MISSION BEND, MISSOURI CITY, MONT BELVIEU, OLD RIVER-WINFREE, PALACIOS, PEARLAND, PECAN GROVE, ROSENBERG,   STOWELL, SUGAR LAND, TEXAS CITY, THE WOODLANDS, AND WINNIE.

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Apparently this was one of the reasons for upgrade to hurricane:

These radar echoes were the reasoning for the upgrade of #Beryl. Winds up to 88 mph are being measured at about 10,000 feet aloft. That translates into surface winds of 75 mph, supporting a hurricane.

https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1810163899653648530

Also, the decision may have been influenced by this buoy report:

NOAA buoy 42019 recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph  
(97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). The buoy also 
reported a pressure of 992.2 mb (29.30 inches).

In addition, the latest dropsonde posted above showed pressure dropped to 985 mb.

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Recon finding stronger FL winds. Latest VDM had a peak FL wind of 77kt but well away from the center still. That said, the eye has dramatically contracted, from 58 miles six hours ago to 8nm now. That’s a feat in itself lol. 

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