Chinook Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 this is out in the Gulf Quote KVAF 072255Z AUTO 15037G53KT 1 3/4SM BR FEW007 SCT019 BKN026 26/25 A2961 RMK A01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Down to 985.5 mb (extrapolated) at 5:55PM CDT at 27.0N, 95.7W per recon but dropsondes 988 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Interesting note from recon, they observed paint drying out in the Gulf while looking for significant signs of intensification within Beryl's inner core. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Interesting note from recon, they observed paint drying out in the Gulf while looking for significant signs of intensification within Beryl's inner core. Easy to do with a 58 mile wide ragged eye. It’s even larger than it was earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 7 Author Share Posted July 7 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Down to 985.5 mb (extrapolated) at 5:55PM CDT at 27.0N, 95.7W per recon. It would now need to come due N or even NNE to landfall Galveston. As spread out as it is, the island would max out on winds with a landfall nearer Port Jackson, though even that requires a turn due N almost immediately. Sargent seems as good a place as any for landfall. I suspect it does start to deepen quickly, but it has enough time to get low end Cat 2, looking at HWRF, which shows the upper bound. HAFS have ot on the brink of Cat 1. Minimal Cat 1 is probably the way to go. There'll be flooding, but not as bad as Imelda or beta, or even close to Alison or Harvey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 System is just too broad to ramp up quickly in the last 12 hours before landfall IMHO. High end Cat 1 is probably the ceiling at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 3 minutes ago, dan11295 said: System is just too broad to ramp up quickly in the last 12 hours before landfall IMHO. High end Cat 1 is probably the ceiling at this point. Yea...I think my call is the ceiling...agree.....gun to head now, it will be lower than that...like 80 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 The process of mixing the dry air out of Beryl's inner core has been painfully slow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Despite being on the cusp of hurricane status again I totally agree. Too broad, too much time mixing out dry air, not much time left. Gradual is the word of the day. Only thing to watch however is that conditions improve all the way to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Despite being on the cusp of hurricane status again I totally agree. Too broad, too much time mixing out dry air, not much time left. Gradual is the word of the day. Only thing to watch however is that conditions improve all the way to the coast. The improving conditions is my only shot at this hitting 95MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 700 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERYL SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 95.6W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning south of Port Aransas has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning south of Port Aransas, including Corpus Christi Bay, has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Port Mansfield has been discontinued. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 The upper level outflow is beautiful. If Beryl had a tight and moist inner core, it would be cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The improving conditions is my only shot at this hitting 95MPH. That and an east slide. One thing I’m watching…….the storm is due south of Houston and intensifying. The trough is digging and will start to influence beryl. I’m not seeing this getting far enough west to matagorda from its current position 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The improving conditions is my only shot at this hitting 95MPH. I feel like we keep saying this, but this is the best it has looked. Almost a fully closed eye and lightning starting (maybe) to show up in the northern eyewall. 12 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The upper level outflow is beautiful. If Beryl had a tight and moist inner core, it would be cranking. Yep. We’re likely to avoid a real disaster. 10 minutes ago, Normandy said: That and an east slide. One thing I’m watching…….the storm is due south of Houston and intensifying. The trough is digging and will start to influence beryl. I’m not seeing this getting far enough west to matagorda from its current position I’m not sure it’s going to ride due north the next ~9 hours, but wobbles of course always matter in these final hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 We would need to see persistent intense CBs in the core, and that just hasn't occurred yet. Beryl is gradually improving but still lacks a well-formed eyewall. Good news so far to mitigate wind and surge. We're within the 12-hour window from landfall. Unless there is a rapid change in core convection, a Cat 2 is looking less likely. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 At least on IR satellite the shape resembles having an eye:https://col.st/Y7YNB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 983.7 extr last pass 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Also NNE if previous fix. Have to watch closely over the next few hours. This might be feeling the trough more than expected (which is great for Houston if true) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 983 mb...not bad Beryl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 "Standby for news!" - Paul (not hurricane) Harvey Harris County's top official is back in town, Emergency Mgmt returns to full strength, and she will hold a news conference to update the situation any moment now. Here's the link: https://x.com/HarrisCoJudge/status/1810106275067478038 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 14 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 983.7 extr last pass That’s down ~2 mb from an extrap pass 1.5 hours earlier. If this slow rate of fall were to persist through the projected time of landfall, that would still mean a further drop of 10 mb well down into the 970s. But with the broad center, I’m thinking it may need to get below 970 mb to have a shot at cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 At least on IR satellite the shape resembles having an eye:https://col.st/Y7YNBSubsidence helps to clear out an eye feature, but if you analyze the current structure of the core, you'll see the broad structure remains. Note the area of 50 kt + 2-km winds away in the NE quadrant. Shallow convection is too slow in process to force the contraction of the vortex and RMWs in the small window of time. We need to see explosive deep convection ASAP to drive rapid pressure falls and create a sink for contraction. (Image Source: Lidar from the LROSE project @ CSU) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Live stream from Sargent, TX (Josh M. is also there): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Beryl barely moved between those center fixes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm3&zoom=&time= The stronger this storm gets the more its going to be pushed NNE. the slowdown and due north center fix is interesting and might indicate this might be happening. Seeing zero gains longitudinally now and still due south of houston. gotta keep watching. Additionally, looks like we got a big meso on the south side again. lets see what happens as it rotates around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 The surface pressure is the same as it was six hours ago. The radar presentation continues to look pretty disheveled. As has been the case all day, a pocket of modest convection will pop up within the core, but as it rotates around, it dries up.... rinse, repeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The surface pressure is the same as it was six hours ago. Was the last dropsonde at 988? If so, do you know when that was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Was the last dropsonde at 988? If so, do you know when that was? There have been several center dropsondes through the afternoon and evening, but the one at 18:49z was 989. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Is it just me or is Beryl slowing down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Looks like a slow motion to the N on the edge of this CRP radar display: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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