Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[Windspeed]

From Eric Webb at 1:42 PM EDT in response to Ryan Maue showing a sat. image of Harvey 48 hours prior to landfall:
While I do agree that #Beryl may rapidly intensify into landfall in Texas later tomorrow, we need to pump the brakes on the “this could be Harvey all over again” paradigm. There are some truly gigantic differences between this and Harvey, in that during Harvey you started from basically nothing, whereas here w/ #Beryl you have a broad center and wind maxima that needs time to consolidate before really getting going again. Also, not to mention #Beryl’s environment isn’t exactly pristine, with a lot of mid-level dry air lurking to the south and moderate-strong southerly wind shear helping to force this dry air into the core. While there are a few exceptions, it’s **much, much** easier for a TC to intensify more quickly when you start with next to nothing like Harvey and just wrap up a tight initial inner core. Contrast that with #Beryl where you’re try to tighten up something that’s initially broad, with a lot more inertial stability to overcome. Historically speaking, most tightly wound cat 4-5s in the Atlantic that unwind then try to reintensify later on usually do so at a much slower pace, even in a great environments. This is likely because the broad pressure field left by the older, relic inner core pumps the breaks truly rapid intensification when it comes to surface winds. In these kinds of storms, you tend to get a lot more deepening, pressure falls, & a larger wind field at the expense of the peak winds having a harder time keeping up. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here w/ #Beryl
 
https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809643994177237427?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1809643994177237427|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

I really don't understand why Ryan posted that image, especially without any context. It's two completely different scenarios, and it just misleads. I am astounded sometimes at professional mets. I realize they're human and susceptible to excitement and hype. The adrenaline gets to me sometimes as well. But there is a limit. This is not Harvey 2.0.... Good on Webb there. It deserved a good thorough explanation of why this is not the same situation to curb any fears for pre and post landfall.

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

From Eric Webb at 1:42 PM EDT in response to Ryan Maue showing a sat. image of Harvey 48 hours prior to landfall:

While I do agree that #Beryl may rapidly intensify into landfall in Texas later tomorrow, we need to pump the brakes on the “this could be Harvey all over again” paradigm. There are some truly gigantic differences between this and Harvey, in that during Harvey you started from basically nothing, whereas here w/ #Beryl you have a broad center and wind maxima that needs time to consolidate before really getting going again. Also, not to mention #Beryl’s environment isn’t exactly pristine, with a lot of mid-level dry air lurking to the south and moderate-strong southerly wind shear helping to force this dry air into the core. While there are a few exceptions, it’s **much, much** easier for a TC to intensify more quickly when you start with next to nothing like Harvey and just wrap up a tight initial inner core. Contrast that with #Beryl where you’re try to tighten up something that’s initially broad, with a lot more inertial stability to overcome. Historically speaking, most tightly wound cat 4-5s in the Atlantic that unwind then try to reintensify later on usually do so at a much slower pace, even in a great environments. This is likely because the broad pressure field left by the older, relic inner core pumps the breaks truly rapid intensification when it comes to surface winds. In these kinds of storms, you tend to get a lot more deepening, pressure falls, & a larger wind field at the expense of the peak winds having a harder time keeping up. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here w/ #Beryl

 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809643994177237427?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1809643994177237427|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

That last part is what I’ve been thinking about a lot. It’s a relatively compact storm but has a very broad wind field. It’s entirely possible that intensification means more that the RMW contracts some but remains broad, rather than contracts a lot and is very intense at the core.

I do think we need about 24 hours to have a real sense of which prevails. I do think a low end 3 remains plausible but unlikely. I think a Harvey like outcome is extremely unlikely.

I’ll also say again that I think the angle of approach will also help to tighten this up near landfall. 

[Normandy]

I think because this storm has been so unpredictable thus far in the face of adverse conditions, I get where Ryan Maue and Eric Webb are coming from.  It’s not the same condition as Harvey, but Harvey also wasn’t a north moving storm with a HELLISH jet stream to the north.  There are also very high CAPE values in the new gulf as well.  Both could potentially really help this storm fire deep convection and ventilate it well.  I honestly have no idea how intense it will be.  I think the cap is a major but that’s also dependent on track (does it move further up the coast and get more time over water?).  Just gotta watch and see, I don’t envy the NHC with this storm (and they have done great so far)

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, Normandy said:

I think because this storm has been so unpredictable thus far in the face of adverse conditions, I get where Ryan Maue and Eric Webb are coming from.  It’s not the same condition as Harvey, but Harvey also wasn’t a north moving storm with a HELLISH jet stream to the north.  There are also very high CAPE values in the new gulf as well.  Both could potentially really help this storm fire deep convection and ventilate it well.  I honestly have no idea how intense it will be.  I think the cap is a major but that’s also dependent on track (does it move further up the coast and get more time over water?).  Just gotta watch and see, I don’t envy the NHC with this storm (and they have done great so far)

  The bolded is worth noting as another big difference from Harvey, which was blocked by highs both to the N and to the W. This resulted in incredibly slow movement once onshore, an avg of a mere ~2 mph over a 48 hour period resulting in historically high rainfall!

[canderson]

7 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Good. The farther east, the better. I would not mind it hitting Biloxi.

Dude. Central Texas needs rain desperately bad. This is the only hope. I pray it somehow rides up 35. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

From Eric Webb at 1:42 PM EDT in response to Ryan Maue showing a sat. image of Harvey 48 hours prior to landfall:
While I do agree that #Beryl may rapidly intensify into landfall in Texas later tomorrow, we need to pump the brakes on the “this could be Harvey all over again” paradigm. There are some truly gigantic differences between this and Harvey, in that during Harvey you started from basically nothing, whereas here w/ #Beryl you have a broad center and wind maxima that needs time to consolidate before really getting going again. Also, not to mention #Beryl’s environment isn’t exactly pristine, with a lot of mid-level dry air lurking to the south and moderate-strong southerly wind shear helping to force this dry air into the core. While there are a few exceptions, it’s **much, much** easier for a TC to intensify more quickly when you start with next to nothing like Harvey and just wrap up a tight initial inner core. Contrast that with #Beryl where you’re try to tighten up something that’s initially broad, with a lot more inertial stability to overcome. Historically speaking, most tightly wound cat 4-5s in the Atlantic that unwind then try to reintensify later on usually do so at a much slower pace, even in a great environments. This is likely because the broad pressure field left by the older, relic inner core pumps the breaks truly rapid intensification when it comes to surface winds. In these kinds of storms, you tend to get a lot more deepening, pressure falls, & a larger wind field at the expense of the peak winds having a harder time keeping up. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here w/ #Beryl
 
https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809643994177237427?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1809643994177237427|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

I really don't understand why Ryan posted that image, especially without any context. It's two completely different scenarios, and it just misleads. I am astounded sometimes at professional mets. I realize they're human and susceptible to excitement and hype. The adrenaline gets to me sometimes as well. But there is a limit. This is not Harvey 2.0.... Good on Webb there. It deserved a good thorough explanation of why this is not the same situation to curb any fears for pre and post landfall.

Yes, we have been on the same throughout and that remains the case.

[Windspeed]

That last part is what I’ve been thinking about a lot. It’s a relatively compact storm but has a very broad wind field. It’s entirely possible that intensification means more that the RMW contracts some but remains broad, rather than contracts a lot and is very intense at the core.
I do think we need about 24 hours to have a real sense of which prevails. I do think a low end 3 remains plausible but unlikely. I think a Harvey like outcome is extremely unlikely.
I’ll also say again that I think the angle of approach will also help to tighten this up near landfall. 

Hypothetically, Beryl needs a strong eyewall already evolved and nearly constant CBs by at least tomorrow evening if we're presented with enough time to reach Category 3. The pressure needs to be in a nosedive and rein in that RMW to allow rapid intensification to occur. But something like Harvey? That is going to take extreme pressure drops in a 24-hour period to overcome Beryl's current structure. Harvey bottomed out at 937 mb at landfall. I have been shocked plenty of times during my obsession with this discipline, and this would no doubt be right up there near the most. Beryl may find itself under a pristine ULAC with northerly jetstreak enhancement, but there will still be a trade-off between intermittent gulps of dry air that may occur. I think a Category 2 is a safe forecast. A three should be the ceiling. But hell, there is always the absurd when it comes to 30°C SSTs to fuel it. We'll see what Beryl's structure is like in 12 hours.

[WBadger]

18 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Good. The farther east, the better. I would not mind it hitting Biloxi.

I don't know about you, but we really need the rain. Despite last year being an El Nino year we never fully got out of the drought.

At this point Lake Medina will never recover.

[dbullsfan]

Not to mention, I’m no Mod but usually people aren’t really in the business of rooting for places to get hit with a Hurricane. We are all here because we are enamored with these beauties but don’t forget they can also be deadly forces. Sometimes reading more and typing less is a good way to go.


.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Just by the science, what Beryl did 4 or 5 days ago in the Caribbean in no way influences what it does now.  Beryl is not a sentient thing that learned the value of hard work in the Caribbean and will therefore defy the models and become a major hurricane.  That isn't how physics work.

[Jebman]

34 minutes ago, canderson said:

Dude. Central Texas needs rain desperately bad. This is the only hope. I pray it somehow rides up 35. 

Okay. Agreed there. Areas west of I35 DO need rain badly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

Dude drops a, I hope Biloxi gets hit out of nowhere. He seems new, but not my place so I’ll stand down and just lurk.


.

Jeb has been on these board for the better part of two decades, he isn't new.

[Jebman]

11 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

Not to mention, I’m no Mod but usually people aren’t really in the business of rooting for places to get hit with a Hurricane. We are all here because we are enamored with these beauties but don’t forget they can also be deadly forces. Sometimes reading more and typing less is a good way to go.


.

I did not mean to appear to root for a TC to hit someplace. I will post with more care. I guess I wish for Beryl to be a weak tropical depression then bring beneficial rain to places that need it.

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Just by the science, what Beryl did 4 or 5 days ago in the Caribbean in no way influences what it does now.  Beryl is not a sentient thing that learned the value of hard work in the Caribbean and will therefore defy the models and become a major hurricane.  That isn't how physics work.

Especially because the current structure is nowhere close to its structure of a few days ago when it rapidly deepened. For all practical purposes, it is like a different storm. Plus the atmosphere is far different though SSTs are similarly very warm.

[Jebman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jeb has been on these board for the better part of two decades, he isn't new.

Yes I should know better I will post with more care. Better yet, I will go take a walk for a bit.

[Normandy]

14 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Just by the science, what Beryl did 4 or 5 days ago in the Caribbean in no way influences what it does now.  Beryl is not a sentient thing that learned the value of hard work in the Caribbean and will therefore defy the models and become a major hurricane.  That isn't how physics work.

I think you are analyzing this the wrong way.  It’s not the beryl is a sentient being that can overcome shear at will.  Beryl has a certain relationship with shear that, frankly, models and Mets missed (and that’s fine, happens).  What that relationship is I don’t know.  But during this storms life it’s always been in a high shear environment and thrived (and still is btw).  Each storm is different, and this one does well with shear.  Others don’t.  To your point though, can’t use past success to predict future success for beryl.  What happened in the carribean is in the past 

[Roger Smith]

18z report says WNW but difference in position 15z to 18z is +0.6N and +0.4W which would suggest NW or NNW. 

15z 23.0 96.3

18z 23.6 96.7

I would expect rapid intensification to begin tonight, still looks east for landfall. 

[Normandy]

^i feel you.  Now is the time to banter tho as beryl is in the middle of the ocean.  Once we get closer to game time / landfall the banter will slow

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, Normandy said:

I think you are analyzing this the wrong way.  It’s not the beryl is a sentient being that can overcome shear at will.  Beryl has a certain relationship with shear that, frankly, models and Mets missed (and that’s fine, happens).  What that relationship is I don’t know.  But during this storms life it’s always been in a high shear environment and thrived (and still is btw).  Each storm is different, and this one does well with shear.  Others don’t

 I’m closer to Ed on this. How Beryl handled shear a few days ago shouldn’t be all that relevant to how well she is handling shear now due to a much different storm structure vs then….imho.

[NeffsvilleWx]

22 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Just by the science, what Beryl did 4 or 5 days ago in the Caribbean in no way influences what it does now.  Beryl is not a sentient thing that learned the value of hard work in the Caribbean and will therefore defy the models and become a major hurricane.  That isn't how physics work.

You don’t know that sentience isn’t an unexpected result of AGW —- you’re just guessing!

[cptcatz]

11 minutes ago, Normandy said:

I think you are analyzing this the wrong way.  It’s not the beryl is a sentient being that can overcome shear at will.  Beryl has a certain relationship with shear that, frankly, models and Mets missed (and that’s fine, happens).  What that relationship is I don’t know.  But during this storms life it’s always been in a high shear environment and thrived (and still is btw).  Each storm is different, and this one does well with shear.  Others don’t.  To your point though, can’t use past success to predict future success for beryl.  What happened in the carribean is in the past 

I think you are analyzing this the wrong way. Again, the storm isn't a sentient being. Everything that has happened is because of physical occurrences that happened in the atmosphere. I don't think you can even say "this storm has done well in a high shear environment". There's a scientific answer to that, although I'm not sure what it is. Maybe the shear simply wasn't as strong as scientists think it was, or there's some other reason why this specific storm wasn't impacted by that specific shear in that specific environment. But all those specifics has nothing to do with what's happening right now a thousand miles away from that previous occurrence. 

[Normandy]

So you quoted me to simply repeat what I said lol.  Cool.  It was more eloquent at least.

[csnavywx]

Land-disrupted TC cores like this are almost always tougher to spin back up in the early stages. Concur with Webb here -- inertial stability is a barrier. Likely going to take until the shear magnitude drops <10 kt and the vector aligns with the track. Last 24 hours before landfall looks very good environmentally, but has a lot of work to do before it can truly take advantage of that. A good signal marker will prob be when that burst pattern starts wrapping upshear.

[Amped]

Euro finally out and it landfalls near Port O'conner. Its on the northeast edge of guidance. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Nice burst of deep convection going up around the eye. Deepest convection is in the N and NE quads of the core.

[csnavywx]

If it gets its act together overnight and into tomorrow morning, then this may become relevant:

 

[wkd]

Something has changed in the last 5-10 years regarding modeled changes in the increase in hurricane intensity although they are still good at forecasting track. This seems especially true once storms are in the gulf. I am a total novice in respect to tropical systems and the physics involved  but I think forecasters need to increasingly use intuition/experience and not just models.

As an aside, kudos to 40/70 (Ray) for saying yesterday or the day before that he felt the models were too far south at land fall. Looks at this point he was correct.

[GaWx]

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE 
COAST OF TEXAS...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 93.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from
Baffin Bay northward to Sargent.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast
north of Sargent to High Island.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from North Entrance of 
the Padre Island National Seashore northward to San Luis Pass, 
including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the Texas coast east of 
High Island to Sabine Pass.

 

[GaWx]

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Beryl's convective organization has increased since the last 
advisory, with a ragged band forming in the western semicircle.  
However, this band is best organized around what appears to be a 
mid-level center to the north or northeast of the low-level center. 
Earlier aircraft data indicated that the maximum winds were near 50 
kt and the central pressure was in the 997-999 mb range, and since 
that time various objective intensity estimates have shown little 
change.  Thus, the initial intensity remains 50 kt.  The next 
aircraft missions into the cyclone should arrive around 2300-0000Z.  
Beryl is still being affected by shear and dry air entrainment, 
which helped produce a large arc cloud that was visible for most of 
the day to the south and southwest of the convection.

The initial motion is now 310/11 kt.  Water vapor imagery 
continues to show a developing mid-latitude trough over the central 
United States that is opening a break in the subtropical ridge over 
Texas.  Beryl should move northwestward for the next 24 h or so, 
then gradually turn north and move into the break.  This motion 
should lead to the cyclone making landfall on the Texas coast 
between 36-48 h.  Recurvature to the northeast is subsequently 
expected after 60-72 h.  There has been a little bit of a northward 
shift in the guidance and track, due mainly to a more northward 
initial position.  While this has produced only a small change in 
the forecast landfall location, the landfall time is now a few 
hours earlier than in the previous advisory.  It should be noted 
that some erratic motion could occur tonight due to possible center 
reformations.

While Beryl remains in an area of southerly vertical shear and mid- 
to upper-level dry air, the convection has been persistent during 
the past several hours.  The shear is forecast to decrease by 
Sunday morning, which should allow Beryl to re-intensity as 
shown by all of the guidance.  The intensity forecast calls for 
Beryl to regain hurricane status Sunday or Sunday night, and to 
reach an intensity of around 75-kt near the time of the Texas 
landfall.  This intensity is based on the regional hurricane models, 
which have landfall intensities ranging from 65-85 kt.  After 
landfall, Beryl is expected to weaken, with the system forecast to 
decay to a remnant low pressure area by 96 h.

It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 36
hours is about 50-60 miles and the average intensity error is close 
to one category.  Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 23.9N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 24.8N  94.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 26.0N  95.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 27.5N  96.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 29.1N  96.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 60H  09/0600Z 30.8N  96.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  09/1800Z 32.4N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  10/1800Z 35.0N  91.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  11/1800Z 38.0N  88.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Eskimo Joe]