Scott747 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 12z Euro says to buckle up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 The 12Z Euro is significantly NE of the 6Z’s CC landfall with it going ashore about dead-on mid TX coast. Also, it is much stronger at 971 mb vs 989 mb at 6Z! Those old ICON and JMA runs into Galveston are looking more realistic. There were a good number of runs of these two models in that vicinity. Example: ICON 12Z 6/30 run: (the 12Z 6/30 JMA was actually similar!) 12Z 6/30 JMA: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 On 7/3/2024 at 12:39 PM, CurlyHeadBarrett said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 I still think Corpus Christi is favored but honestly these north trends are significant. Hurricane models at 12z are split on how much Beryl recovers in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I still think Corpus Christi is favored but honestly these north trends are significant. Hurricane models at 12z are split on how much Beryl recovers in the Gulf. I think a healthy cat 1 is a good bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Hurricane models are showing it takes at least 48hrs before any signifigant deepening resumes. How strong it gets may depend on how long it avoids landfall. Most likely it gets back to a cat1 or cat2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Also, the Euro is 20mb deeper than the gfs at 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I still think Corpus Christi is favored but honestly these north trends are significant. Hurricane models at 12z are split on how much Beryl recovers in the Gulf. Both HAFS's are losing where Beryl's center is this afternoon and are fixing on a "false" center of circulation north of the Yucatan peninsula by hour-6 during the run. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 1PM CDT: Beryl as expected downgraded to a TS/986 mb: NHC 1:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 5Location: 20.8°N 88.8°WMoving: WNW at 15 mphMin pressure: 986 mbMax sustained: 70 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 9 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Both HAFS's are losing where Beryl's center is this afternoon and are fixing on a "false" center of circulation north of the Yucatan peninsula by hour-6 during the run. This is exactly why I’m hedging my bets and not buying a rapid reintensification and a more northerly track just yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 37 minutes ago, Scott747 said: 12z Euro says to buckle up. Yep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Just now, Chargers09 said: This is exactly why I’m hedging my bets and not buying a rapid reintensification and a more northerly track just yet I think that was a glitch, not representing reality. Hr-6 is right now- Beryl did not relocate to north of the Yucatan in the past 6 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think its time for one of your patented "Jeb Walks"......particularly one that takes you in the opposite direction from your keyboard. I might take your advice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think a healthy cat 1 is a good bet. Respectfully, I think SE Texas should prepare for a major hurricane. I pray I'm wrong but.. That core is relatively in tact and it moved over less land than initially thought. Combine that with very warm waters and South Texas really needs to be on alert. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think a healthy cat 1 is a good bet. Importantly, strengthening upon final approach. For the Texas crew following along, that’s far more impactful than if this were weakening as it did reaching the Yucatán. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 20 minutes ago, Amped said: Also, the Euro is 20mb deeper than the gfs at 24hrs. Now with that said the Euro may also be indicating more favorable conditions for development as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 29 minutes ago, Chargers09 said: This is exactly why I’m hedging my bets and not buying a rapid reintensification and a more northerly track just yet A- Nothing and Noone is forecasting RI. B- All guidance has shifted north into TX, not just the HAFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Importantly, strengthening upon final approach. For the Texas crew following along, that’s far more impactful than if this were weakening as it did reaching the Yucatán. Remember Erin and Katrina in FL ...came in as intensifying cat 1's and damage looked more like cat 2. Intensifying systems more proficiently mix down stronger wind gusts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 22 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Respectfully, I think SE Texas should prepare for a major hurricane. I pray I'm wrong but.. That core is relatively in tact and it moved over less land than initially thought. Combine that with very warm waters and South Texas really needs to be on alert. Should always be prepared for the worst, so sound advice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Call me crazy and I know the models aren’t showing it but I hope the folks in Louisiana aren’t turning off their TVs just yet. It’s getting closer but still far enough out this can shift further east, and well more so make the turn north before getting to the Texas coast. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 5 Author Share Posted July 5 Eye is finally gone but satellite still shows a fairly organized low which is getting close enough to open water to probably not weaken much more. If it hits water now, it still looks like it might have enough organization to need less than the expected day to organize enough to start deepening again. The difference between TCHP and SST pops up if something like the HWRF crawling offshore comes close to happening. The width off the offshore shallow water widens heading N on the Texas Coast from Deep South Texas. Data buoy 22 nm E of Galveston is cycling between 87 and 90°F, but the water is only 16 meters deep there. A faster storm wouldn't have much time to upwell that much, a slower system will react to the warm water being churned. That larger shallow water, OTOH, adds to surge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 A company with billions in assets along the coast is telling its folks their meteorologists anticipate a Cat 3 hitting Matagorda Bay. So there’s that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Eps is also further north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Don't forget the two 2020 Greek storms that did this same thing. Delta went over the Yucatan and weakened to a cat 1, Zeta went over the Yucatan and weakened to a tropical storm, and both made landfall in Louisiana as major hurricanes... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is also further north A lot of spread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 1 hour ago, dbullsfan said: Call me crazy and I know the models aren’t showing it but I hope the folks in Louisiana aren’t turning off their TVs just yet. It’s getting closer but still far enough out this can shift further east, and well more so make the turn north before getting to the Texas coast. . I was just saying that to my buddy in college station. I said get ready but it may trend east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 That part of the TX coastline has the same forecasting challenge as FL. In a system predominantly heading north toward landfall, small changes left or right in the forecast can propagate to significant changes in the final landfall location- like with Ian. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Excellent point @gymengineer. This is why I’m very nervous for the upper Texas coast. At this point I’m hoping for an east trend to TX/LA but that seems wishful at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 46 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Don't forget the two 2020 Greek storms that did this same thing. Delta went over the Yucatan and weakened to a cat 1, Zeta went over the Yucatan and weakened to a tropical storm, and both made landfall in Louisiana as major hurricanes... Delta was only a Cat 2 when it came ashore, it did make it up to 105-110 kt cat 3 again though if I remember correctly, but it unraveled a bit before landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 About to splash into the GoM in the next hour or so. It's moving right of the forecasted track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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