Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Recon definitely shows a continued gradual weakening, but I think current radar and satellite shows that trend may have halted, if not starting to reverse a bit, at least structure wise. Deepening and intensification may follow suit. I think that the reason is that shear may be abating a bit, due to what I explained above, the ULL pinching off the TUTT, the TUTT slowly lifting up and the ULL redirecting part of the upper level winds around it, instead of impinging the TC. Not saying that it will explode or anything of that sort, but I can see it steady state (or slightly strengthen) before the Yucatan LF.

Next recon will dissipate any questions about the weakening trend halting for the time being.

There is def. a bit of a lag between presentation and actual intensity changes.

I still like the northern side of the track envelop at this time...probably a First Call either tonight or tomorrow and Final on Sunday.

TCHP isn't nuts in the SW GOM like it was in the Caribbean, but certainly enough to support intensification back to a hurricane assuming favorable mid levels.

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Come on man don’t post S2K bullshit on here.  The mets AND amateurs here are far more knowledgeable than him

I disagree. Wxman57, a pro met, is about as knowledgeable as the pro mets and more knowledgeable amateurs here. Plus he has 4 decades of experience largely with tropical meteorology. Thus, it isn’t at all BS. @Ed, snow and hurricane fanand anyone else should be welcomed to post 57’s thoughts as well as the thoughts of other pro mets that don’t post here.

[Normandy]

I say it tongue in cheek since they are the OTHER board.  That being said I find him too conservative as a forecaster and he doesn’t make adjustments to his thinking when things aren’t going as planned (both intensity and track).  He’s def knowledgeable tho I just use others guidance more than his.

[wxmx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is def. a bit of a lag between presentation and actual intensity changes.

I still like the northern side of the track envelop at this time...probably a First Call either tonight or tomorrow and Final on Sunday.

TCHP isn't nuts in the SW GOM like it was in the Caribbean, but certainly enough to support intensification back to a hurricane assuming favorable mid levels.

Yes, there is, it's usually structure->central pressure->wind speed ... both in the strengthening and weakening phases.

[wxmx]

Re: Hurricane models and intensity. With the exception of the HMON, they all show more favorable GOM conditions.

Regarding track. How much will the central plains trough erode the SE ridge is the central question. Also, if it will eventually hook Beryl up to the NW/N  capturing it or not. This is important regarding flooding issues in MX and/or TX. Some of the models, at times, show  Beryl completely missing the trough and continue to the W or WNW farther into MX (12z HAFS-X and the CMC), with little TX effects. Most runs show MX landfall, but turning right into TX fairly soon (most GFS runs, and the latest Euro and Ukie). The latter is what's have been favored by the NHC since advisories had shown a W GOM LF.

[Boston Bulldog]

hmmmmm, good burst of upshear convection and the eye pops back out

[wxmx]

33 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Wobble or trend?  Satellite and Cayman radar seems to be showing movement almost due W,

I'll say a bit of both. There are definitely structure changes to the core, hence the propensity for wobbles, but i also think that there will be a farther left track from here to the Yucatan, probably not a 270 heading, but around 275/280, gaining a few tenths of latitude before LF

[NorthHillsWx]

Beryl wins. I’m done trying to forecast this storms intensity. It was on the ropes going by the caymans but has clearly reorganized this early afternoon. Unbelievable 

[wxmx]

Beryl has been straddling the neutral shear threshold (20kts) her whole trek over the Caribbean. Yesterday, it crossed it into 25+kts of shear, and earlier today it went back to ~20kts. 

 

While S of Jamaica 

 

After Jamaica

 

Right now

[jbenedet]

Beryl is forecasted only 12 hours over the Yucatán which—to begin with— historically isn’t inhospitable to tropical cyclones.  Atmospheric conditions are also tilted to favorable at that time. If core is anything like today, upon landfall, I believe odds strongly favor hurricane status vs tropical storm upon entry into the GOM. 

[GaWx]

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL HEADING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 84.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with 
the center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico early Friday.  Beryl is expected to emerge over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and move northwestward 
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday 
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow weakening is forecast before the center makes 
landfall, with additional weakening expected while Beryl crosses 
the Yucatan Peninsula.  Slow re-intensification is expected when 
Beryl moves over the Gulf of Mexico.

 

[GaWx]

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that left the storm 
around 17Z reported that the central pressure had risen to near 974 
mb, and also reported flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an 
intensity of 95 kt.  Since that time, as happened yesterday 
afternoon, despite the ongoing shear the eye has become better 
defined in both satellite imagery and in radar data from Grand 
Cayman and Cuba.  Given this increase in central core organization, 
the initial intensity will be held at 95 kt pending the arrival of 
the next aircraft near 00Z.  Satellite imagery also shows that the 
outflow has become better defined in the northeastern semicircle.

The initial motion is 285/17, although the last several satellite 
images suggest a westward wobble is in progress.  There is again 
little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track 
forecast from the previous advisory. A large ridge centered over 
the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to move westward or 
west-northwestward during the next day or so, with the model 
guidance tightly clustered about a landfall on the Yucatan 
Peninsula in 12-18 h and emerging into the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico at around 30 h.  After that, Beryl should turn northwest 
toward a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a 
mid-latitude trough over the central United States. This general 
motion should continue until the cyclone makes landfall on the 
western Gulf coast between 72-96 h.  There is still some spread in 
the track guidance regarding a landfall location, with the range of 
possibilities from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast.
Users are reminded that the average track forecast error at day 3 
is about 100 miles and at day 4 is about 150 miles, and so it is 
still too early to pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. 
The new official forecast is a little north of the previous 
forecast through 24 h and similar to the previous forecast after 
that.

It is unclear whether the current developments with the hurricane 
core and outflow are temporary or a sign that the westerly shear 
has somewhat abated.  The intensity forecast follows the premise 
that the shear has not fully abated and that Beryl will weaken 
before landfall.  However, even the intensity guidance that 
forecasts weakening keeps Beryl at hurricane strength at landfall 
on the Yucatan Peninsula.  Additional weakening should occur while 
the center is over land.  Over the Gulf of Mexico, the guidance 
does not forecast a lot of strengthening, but conditions appear 
generally favorable and the intensity forecast continues to show 
Beryl at hurricane strength before landfall on the western Gulf 
coast.  It should be noted that the dynamical models suggest that 
the best chance for re-intensification could be during the last 
12-18 hr before the western Gulf landfall, with the storm slow to 
intensify before that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 19.5N  84.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 20.0N  86.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 20.7N  89.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  06/0600Z 21.6N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  06/1800Z 22.6N  93.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 23.6N  95.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 24.5N  96.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 26.5N  98.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  09/1800Z 29.0N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

[GaWx]

18Z ICON: very slightly SW of 12Z run on S-central TX coast

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[g0ldl10n]

Well, this is looking better on satellite .. curious what recon finds. 

 

 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[wxmx]

Latest MW

 

[BooneWX]

Ghost of Harvey….?

[Jebman]

42 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Ghost of Harvey….?

That, is not even funny. I do NOT want 6 feet of rain in Texas or Mexico.

 

Thanks for trolling me, Boone lol. Hey, it worked!

[wxmx]

Shear has once again increased according to UWisc CIMSS analysis. That's the cue for the eye clouding over.

[wxmx]

Recon's extrapolated pressure is 961.9mb. I expect the dropsonde to show values a few mb above that, but still, that would probably be a 8-10mb drop between recon penetrations.

[hawkeye_wx]

Dropsonde says about 963 mb, so it's an 11 mb drop since the last recon report several hours ago.

[Windspeed]

Recon's extrapolated pressure is 961.9mb. I expect the dropsonde to show values a few mb above that, but still, that would probably be a 8-10mb drop between recon penetrations.

The eye is presently covered by high cirrus, but if you look closely, there are convective towers rotating around all quadrants of the eyewall. Shooting overtops just remain restricted to the southeast. In other words, the vortex remains healthy. Obviously, Beryl is not even within a moderately favorable upper environment, and a system that did not have such a well-formed vortex would struggle way worse. But Beryl has remained just barely outside the stronger axis of shear to avoid a breakdown of its strong vortex, even when it has tilted to nearly the breaking point. Yet, if anything, Beryl has actually recovered some this afternoon/evening to allow it to be, in the least, a steady-state from the previous weakening downtrend versus last night and this morning. If the ULL can retrograde west with some haste while partially filling due to Beryl's 300-150 hPa outflow, the hurricane might not weaken much further beyond land interaction. This presents some interesting possibilities for high intensity in the GOM. On the other hand, the ULL may not cooperate with Beryl, and shear could still take Beryl's vortex out at any time. We'll just have to see how this evolves.

[Eskimo Joe]

Big yikes

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The eye is presently covered by high cirrus, but if you look closely, there are convective towers rotating around all quadrants of the eyewall. Shooting overtops just remain restricted to the southeast. In other words, the vortex remains healthy. Obviously, Beryl is not even within a moderately favorable upper environment, and a system that did not have such a well-formed vortex would struggle way worse. But Beryl has remained just barely outside the stronger axis of shear to avoid a breakdown of its strong vortex, even when it has tilted to nearly the breaking point. Yet, if anything, Beryl has actually recovered some this afternoon/evening to allow it to be, in the least, a steady-state from the previous weakening downtrend versus last night and this morning. If the ULL can retrograde west with some haste while partially filling due to Beryl's 300-150 hPa outflow, the hurricane might not weaken much further beyond land interaction. This presents some interesting possibilities for high intensity in the GOM. On the other hand, the ULL may not cooperate with Beryl, and shear could still take Beryl's vortex out at any time. We'll just have to see how this evolves.

I remain on the aggressive side of things. Never expected as much weakening as the official forecast implied INVO Jamaica, either.

[Windspeed]

Big yikes
 
 

And yes, the high shallow-layer SSTs are obviously a huge reason Beryl has been able to keep its strong vortex intact. Persistent strong updrafts so far have won the battle against any mid-level dry intrusions and downdrafts. Those have occurred. But Beryl rebounds every single time. Bery has also just been, well, lucky. Very lucky. How close can a vorticity maximum at 500 hPa flirt with disaster? Beryl is now the case study. It has been on the cusp of 25+ kts of shear numerous times the past 36 hours, and yet here it is still maintaining.

TCHP at depth really doesn't matter too much right now either. It's the shallow immediate surface layer of 29-30° that is driving Beryl's vortex. Beryl's motion is way too fast at 20+ MPH for deep oceanic heat content to matter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

And yes, the high shallow-layer SSTs are obviously a huge reason Beryl has been able to keep its strong vortex intact. Persistent strong updrafts so far have won the battle against any mid-level dry intrusions and downdrafts. Those have occurred. But Beryl rebounds every single time. Bery has also just been, well, lucky. Very lucky. How close can a vorticity maximum at 500 hPa flirt with disaster? Beryl is now the case study. It has been on the cusp of 25 kts numerous times the past 36 hours, and yet here it is still maintaining.

TCHP at depth really doesn't matter too much right now either. It's the shallow immediate surface layer of 29-30° that is driving Beryl's vortex. Beryl's motion it way too fast at 20+ MPH for deep oceanic heat content to matter.

I don't think I agree that it doesn't matter......yes, the fast rate of movement helps the system by limiting upwelling, but the the starting point of the latent energy is still about as high as it can possibly be. I Think that helps mitigate the detrimental impact of relatively hostile mid levels.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Place it over cool water and it is still going to weaken, albeit at a slower pace than it would at a more deliberate rate of movement.

[Windspeed]

I don't think I agree that it doesn't matter......yes, the fast rate of movement helps the system by limiting upwelling, but the the starting point of the latent energy is still about as high as it can possibly be. I Think that helps mitigate the detrimental impact of relatively hostile mid levels.

Place it over cool water and it is still going to weaken, albeit at a slower pace than it would at a more deliberate rate of movement.

I should clarify that TCHP maps are very misleading. They should put a warning label on them for fast-moving hurricanes. Beryl does not care what's below 30 meters when it is essentially moving too fast to utilize anything but the immediate shallow layer, which within 10 meters is pushing 30°C. I only give regards to depth with slower moving TCs. That is when TCHP maps become critical. For something moving at 20 MPH, all you need to give regards to is the actual SSTs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I should clarify that TCHP maps are very misleading. They should put a warning label on them for fast-moving hurricanes. Beryl does not care what's below 30 meters when it is essentially moving too fast to utilize anything but the immediate shallow layer, which within 10 meters is pushing 30°C. I only give regards to depth with slower moving TCs. That is when TCHP maps become critical. For something moving at 20 MPH, all you need to give regards to is the actual SSTs.

Okay, you aren't saying the SST don't matter...got it. I think I would still rather have the warmth be deep with 190 MPH gusts, but point absolutely taken.