Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Quote to bump this radar loop. Still looking formidable in the last frames. Recon also finding winds stronger than what all models were showing by this time. 

It has weakened of course but the resilience has been impressive. Having a solid inner core has really been key to keeping Beryl an over performer. We have not seen nearly the erosion you’d expect under that ribbon of high shear.

 

I think the shear being analyzed has been lesser in magnitude than what some guidance expected. Even lower shear can take a toll over time, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens in the next day. 

 

 

One particular area of interest for me is convection. We’ve seen Beryl continue to fire deep convection that has been persistent enough to frequently wrap around the center, even if transiently. With very high OHC and SSTs on the path to the Yucatán, how much does this aid in maintaining the strength of the system?

 

We will see how the landfall in the Yucatán impacts the core, as that’ll be critical to the intensity and track in the Gulf. It looks like there’s a decent consensus now, but it would not take much for slight shifts north or south. 

The Euro has maintained that this’ll be on the southern envelope of guidance. However, note that the stronger members are still further north.

 

Meanwhile, much of the other guidance continues to settle further north, but the degree remains in question.

 

Notably perhaps, many of this morning’s hurricane models shifted slightly north. We’ll see if that changes. Meanwhile other guidance is again near the border. 

 

The 00z super ensemble was further south of these models, but we’ll see if that changes at 12z. Any shifts, particularly with a NW heading likely, will have meaningful impacts. 

[GaWx]

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 82.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

[GaWx]

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Beryl continues to weaken due to the effects of westerly shear.  
Radar data from the Cayman Islands shows that the eyewall is open 
to the south and that there is very little precipitation occurring 
in the southwestern semicircle.  This matches the asymmetric cloud 
pattern seen in satellite imagery.  Data from the NOAA and Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters support surface winds of 90-100 kt, 
and that the central pressure has risen to near 971 mb.  Based on 
this, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 100 
kt.  The initial wind radii have be modified downward based on the 
aircraft data.

The initial motion is 285/16.  There is little change in either the 
track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous 
advisory. A large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should 
cause Beryl to move westward or west-northwestward during the next 
day or two, with the model guidance tightly clustered about a 
landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula just before 24 h and emerging into 
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico just after 36 h.  After that, Beryl 
should turn northwest toward a developing break in the subtropical 
ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the central United 
States. This general motion should continue until the cyclone makes 
landfall on the western Gulf coast near 96 h.  While the guidance 
has come into better agreement, there is a spread in the guidance 
landfall points from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast, 
and users are reminded that the average error at day 4 is about 150 
miles.  Thus, it is still too early to pinpoint a specific region 
for the worst hazards.  The new official forecast is similar to, but 
a touch slower than, the previous forecast and it lies close to the 
consensus models.

Water vapor imagery continues to show a upper-level trough moving 
west-southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico, with 
westerly flow on the south side of this system helping to impart
moderate-to-strong shear over Beryl.  While the shear could 
decrease some during the next 24 h, it is unlikely to decrease 
enough to stop Beryl from steadily weakening until landfall on the 
Yucatan Peninsula.  This part of the new intensity forecast follows 
the trend of the intensity guidance.  Beryl should weaken more 
after landfall.  There is uncertainty in how much shear the cyclone 
may encounter over the Gulf of Mexico, but the guidance shows slow 
intensification during that time.  This is reflected in the new 
intensity forecast that brings the system back to hurricane strength 
right at landfall on the western Gulf coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 19.0N  82.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 19.5N  85.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 20.1N  87.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 36H  06/0000Z 20.9N  90.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  06/1200Z 22.0N  92.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  07/0000Z 23.0N  94.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 23.9N  95.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 25.5N  97.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
120H  09/1200Z 28.0N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

[GaWx]

NHC 11AM forecast yesterday: 

 36H  05/0000Z 19.0N  85.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

NHC 5AM forecast today:

 12H  04/1800Z 19.0N  83.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

 

NHC 11AM actual location:

INIT  04/1500Z 19.0N  82.6W  100 KT 115 MPH

 
 By comparing these 3, one can see the trend that she gets as far N as 19.0N at a further E longitude: note that current location of 19.0N is with longitude of 82.6W vs 85.5W on yesterday’s 11AM forecast and 83.6W on today’s 5AM forecast. The implications are that this may mean a further N landfall in the W Gulf than earlier forecasted.

[hawkeye_wx]

The models are all too far south with the track today.  The eye of Beryl is now near the point that is due south of the Isle of Youth and west of Grand Cayman.  None of the GFS, Euro, Canadian, ICON, are that far north.  And, the Cayman radar shows the wnw track has not stopped.

[BooneWX]

Beryl:

[BooneWX]

Beryl could be an entirely different beast in the GOM if it continues its trajectory. It’s looking less and less likely that this thing hits the widest part of the Yucatán. If I’m in Texas, I’m getting a little sweaty this morning.

[GaWx]

12Z global model runs vs earlier runs:

-ICON: Matagorda, TX (furthest SW yet) after many runs at Galveston

-GFS: ~60 miles S of TX border (slightly S of last 3 runs)

-CMC: ~125 miles S of TX border (slightly further S of last 2 runs)

-UKMET: ~90 miles S of TX border, which may be slightly further N than last run and is ~55 miles N of yesterday’s 12Z run

-Euro: out next hour

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z global model runs vs earlier runs:

-ICON: Matagorda, TX (furthest SW yet) after many runs at Galveston

-GFS: ~60 miles S of TX border (slightly S of last 3 runs)

-CMC: ~125 miles S of TX border (slightly further S of last 2 runs)

-UKMET: ~90 miles S of TX border, which may be slightly further N than last run and is ~55 miles N of yesterday’s 12Z run

-Euro: out next hour

Thanks. Still a lot of uncertainty in the Gulf. We’ll see what the 12z hurricane model runs think on intensity and track. 

[wxmx]

A good reference of which models are handling Beryl better for the GOM is whether it hits the Yucatan near 19N (like the CMC, Ukie and 06z Euro do) or 20N (like the GFS and others do). Currently it is at ~19.1N, and a more westward track appears to have begun according to radar and recon.

[wxmx]

One thing is for sure, the environmental conditions sure look much better in modeling world than what they were forecasted to be 24 hours ago. The ULL moves away from Beryl faster, with a greater separation between the two, with lot less shear impacting the cyclone, and an ULAC building atop Beryl. If it has a good structure post-Yucatan, then it can intensify significantly before the W GOM LF.

[g0ldl10n]

Microwave imaging from the last several hours showed no distinct eye, but in the past hour or so, it seems to be taking shape again.
 

 

[wxmx]

The ULL was pinched off the TUTT earlier today and is positioned to the WNW of Beryl. If the distance between the two widens, by the ULL retrograding at a faster pace than Beryl, and/or the ULL filling up and weakening then we would get a very favorable environment in the GOM

[40/70 Benchmark]

Post the link for the microwave imaging?

TIA....

[g0ldl10n]

@40/70 Benchmark here ya go https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2024_02L/web/mainpage.html

[GaWx]

 The 12Z UKMET has Beryl already at 85.4W when at 19.0N at 8PM EDT/7PM CDT today. But regarding the 11AM EDT/10AM CDT actual position, the NHC was already up to 19.0N with her only to 82.6W. That means she was a whopping ~185 miles E of the 12Z UKMET 7PM CDT position. That implies to me that the UKMET is likely going to verify too far S when it reaches the W GOM.

[wxmx]

This is another source for MW imagery @40/70 Benchmark
 https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[wxmx]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z UKMET has Beryl already at 85.4W when at 19.0N at 7PM CDT today. But regarding the 10AM CDT actual position, the NHC was already up to 19.0N with her only to 82.6W. That means she’s now a whopping ~185 miles E of the 12Z UKMET 7PM position. That implies to me that the UKMET is likely going to verify too far S when it reaches the W GOM.

The thing is if that the Ukie, CMC and Euro all three have a due west path starting around 19N (which is right now) until the Yucatan, while the GFS has a more poleward track.

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Beryl could be an entirely different beast in the GOM if it continues its trajectory. It’s looking less and less likely that this thing hits the widest part of the Yucatán. If I’m in Texas, I’m getting a little sweaty this morning.

Yeah it does look more concerning  for Texas but the system IS showing some slow weakening. Max sustained winds at 115mph is sure better than 165. Beryl is not going to slow down and be like Allison. As long as she keeps on moving, should not be too bad. We can handle a few inches of rain, if we even get that.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: slightly N of its 0Z run and near yesterday’s 12Z run; it is ~90 miles S of TX border, which is where 12Z UKMET is and is between 12Z GFS and 12Z CMC

 

 So, from N to S for 12Z global runs:

ICON (Matagorda)

GFS (60 miles S of TX border)

Euro/UKMET (90 miles S of TX border)

CMC (125 miles S of TX border)

[wxmx]

Recon definitely shows a continued gradual weakening, but I think current radar and satellite shows that trend may have halted, if not starting to reverse a bit, at least structure wise. Deepening and intensification may follow suit. I think that the reason is that shear may be abating a bit, due to what I explained above, the ULL pinching off the TUTT, the TUTT slowly lifting up and the ULL redirecting part of the upper level winds around it, instead of impinging the TC. Not saying that it will explode or anything of that sort, but I can see it steady state (or slightly strengthen) before the Yucatan LF.

Next recon will dissipate any questions about the weakening trend halting for the time being.

[Jebman]

I am hugging the CMC like a long lost lover.

[WxWatcher007]

41 minutes ago, g0ldl10n said:

Microwave imaging from the last several hours showed no distinct eye, but in the past hour or so, it seems to be taking shape again.
 

 

Yeah on radar it’s ragged but clearly defined. Recon’s last VDM said the following but it keeps trying to rebuild.

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
 

EYEWALL BCMG MORE RAGGED, WEAKNESS TO THE NE IN ADDITION TO BEING OPEN ON THE WEST

6 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Recon definitely shows a continued gradual weakening, but I think current radar and satellite shows that trend may have halted, if not starting to reverse a bit, at least structure wise. Deepening and intensification may follow suit. I think that the reason is that shear may be abating a bit, due to what I explained above, the ULL pinching off the TUTT, the TUTT slowly lifting up and the ULL redirecting part of the upper level winds around it, instead of impinging the TC. Not saying that it will explode or anything of that sort, but I can see it steady state (or slightly strengthen) before the Yucatan LF.

Next recon will dissipate any questions about the weakening trend halting for the time being.

Agree—going back to what I said earlier about the convection, this really has seemed to help Beryl maintain a minimum level of inner core stability sufficient for reorganization whenever shear tries to rip the vortex apart. 

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 83.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

[TriPol]

She's finally lost major hurricane status. FINALLY.

[WxWatcher007]

12z Euro

 

[Amped]

Beryl has produced 27.7 ACE so far.  Amazing for a July storm. Will probably top 30 when all is said and done.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

26 minutes ago, wxmx said:

The thing is if that the Ukie, CMC and Euro all three have a due west path starting around 19N (which is right now) until the Yucatan, while the GFS has a more poleward track.

Wobble or trend?  Satellite and Cayman radar seems to be showing movement almost due W,

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

His job is tropical forecasting for private clients and he doesn't have to hedge his bets in the interest of public safety.

 

Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

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•  

#2420 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 04, 2024 12:30 pm

Don't read too much into wobbles. Should track south of Cozumel (maybe not too far south) and make landfall south of Brownsville. Of course, the key will be how much the core is destroyed over the Yucatan tomorrow. If it's really torn up, then a farther south track is likely. HAFS-A and HAFS-B shifted south to near Tampico.

Levi has a new video just published: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpC6Z_OCI-0

[Normandy]

Come on man don’t post S2K bullshit on here.  The mets AND amateurs here are far more knowledgeable than him