gymengineer Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 This was the southwest "corner" I was talking about in an earlier post- the Treasure Beach area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 This was the southwest "corner" I was talking about in an earlier post- the Treasure Beach area.I had to step away. A busy day and trying to keep tabs. But unfortunately, yes, the northern eyewall is now over the southwestern shoreline of Jamaica.Ouch!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 That is located here for a perspective of distance from the SW shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 Hurricane force winds at FL well N of Jamaica. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 My cousin from NJ is in Montego Bay stuck while on vacation. She says no power but getting breezy. Nothing to note so far. Messenger_creation_21369813-2038-4540-9e75-30fb2924fee4~2.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 It’s been every night- recon checks and winds are roaring despite any satellite presentation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 I know it’s almost 10PM, but still wanted to get this in the thread: Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL MOVING NEAR SOUTHWESTERN JAMAICA... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 78.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 17 minutes ago, gymengineer said: It’s been every night- recon checks and winds are roaring despite any satellite presentation Its just like the Energizer Bunny...........it keeps going and going and going......... GaWx!!! That is great news! It is down to 130 mph! Maybe that shear and dry air finally starting to wear Beryl down! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 22 minutes ago, Jebman said: Its just like the Energizer Bunny...........it keeps going and going and going......... GaWx!!! That is great news! It is down to 130 mph! Maybe that shear and dry air finally starting to wear Beryl down! Well, Jebman, I agree it’s good to see any weakening, especially while still in the vicinity of Jamaica and with the Caymans not too far away. But unfortunately 130 is still very powerful. You’re right, it is the Energizer Bunny of hurricanes! Who would have thought that on July 3 we’d have a hurricane that “weakened” to 130 mph? It’s crazy! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 11 minutes ago, Jebman said: Its just like the Energizer Bunny...........it keeps going and going and going......... GaWx!!! That is great news! It is down to 130 mph! Maybe that shear and dry air finally starting to wear Beryl down! Clearly looks like there was definite weakening also due to the proximity to the land mass of Jamaica. Last hour looking at the water vapor map there is a blow up on the southeast side where there was pretty much nothing just a bit ago. It will be interesting to see how Beryl fairs as it moves away from Jamaica. Grand Cayman outside of any shear and or dry air will have zero impact on Beryl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 It’s great to have radar too to analyze any trends tonight/tomorrow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Well, the Energizer Bunny is still a cat 4 at 11PM! Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BERYL PULLING AWAY FROM JAMAICA... ...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 79.2W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Shear is really cranking now. You can see it on IR and the S eyewall is open on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 The core of Beryl has now passed through Jamaica and is approaching the Cayman Islands. Satellite images indicate that the eye has become cloud filled, and reports from both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the eyewall is open on the southwest side. Despite the degraded structure, a blend of the NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance data indicates that Beryl is still an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with an initial intensity of 115 kt. The crews on board also reported that there was significant turbulence in the northern eyewall. NOAA's P-3 Tail Doppler Radar data does suggest that there is some vertical tilt to the vortex, likely due to moderate westerly vertical wind shear. The center of Beryl is a little to the north of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate is 295/16 kt. A ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to turn more westward during the next couple of days, taking the core of the major hurricane just south of the Cayman Islands overnight and across the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday. The ridge is expected to weaken late Friday, which should cause Beryl to slow down and gain more latitude this weekend as it moves toward a trough over the south-central U.S. The models are tightly clustered through the Yucatan landfall, and given the pronounced steering currents through that time, the NHC track forecast is of high confidence. However, the spread in the models increase by the time Beryl nears eastern Mexico and southern Texas and accordingly, confidence in the details of the track forecast are low at long range. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the north of the previous one and very near the various consensus aids. Beryl is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly shear, and the models suggest that the shear will either hold steady or increase a little during the next couple of days. These less favorable winds aloft combined with some intrusions of dry air should cause weakening, but Beryl is still expected to be a powerful hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatan. The interaction with the landmass of the Yucatan should cause rapid weakening, but gradual re-intensification is expected when Beryl moves over the western Gulf of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 18.0N 79.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.5N 81.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 19.1N 85.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 19.8N 87.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 20.7N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/1200Z 21.7N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/0000Z 22.8N 94.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 24.6N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 26.7N 98.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 For the 3rd run of the last 5 and the 2nd in a row, the ICON has a major H hit on Galveston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Central pressure is up to 961. That's up from the mid 930s. It's getting weaker. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 42 minutes ago, Jebman said: Central pressure is up to 961. That's up from the mid 930s. It's getting weaker. Now that the core is finally disrupted, perhaps we can see this truly weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 “From all the reports I have received we have taken a most devastating blow in St Elizabeth from Hurricane Beryl. Significant numbers of roofs being lost, houses destroyed, trees uprooted, light poles downed, almost all roads are impassable. Going to be an extremely long night.” https://x.com/floydgreenja/status/1808696512471245249 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 I can’t anymore with this storm lol. That can’t be a pinhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 The resilience of this storm is pretty incredible, and speaks volume about the OHC and potential heat energy of the oceans right now. If it remained favorable conditions, Beryl could have maintained Cat 4+ all the way up to the Yucatan. Pretty incredible for early July, but again, I'm surprised that in 150 years of data there aren't many examples of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Radar reveals a lack of banding besides the rapidly degrading eyewall. Coupled with pressure rises, I think this thing is unraveling at a quickening pace (finally) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Beryl has finally fallen below cat 4 as it is now a strong cat 3. It appears that SW Jamaica may have been the hardest hit of that island based on that tweet I just posted and the radar images showing the very strong N eyewall over that area. Get ready Caymans, especially Grand Cayman! Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 80.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 4 Author Share Posted July 4 16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Radar reveals a lack of banding besides the rapidly degrading eyewall. Coupled with pressure rises, I think this thing is unraveling at a quickening pace (finally) All the hurricane models, GFS and Canadian show weakening to a strong TS or Cat 1 before Yucatan landfall, and little restrengthening back over the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite continues to degrade. Shear in the Gulf doesn't look horrible, but I assume there isn't enough organization to allow much strengthening until just before landfall/ GFS and Canadian both suggest dry air is still close to the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 The Euro run to run variation on intensity is just absurd. Much stronger on the western Gulf coast compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Two members on the thread. Beryl is weakening apace. Thank goodness. The GoMex Coast need worry no more. Shear is tearing Beryl apart. We can hope, and I will hope enough for millions of people all along the GoMex Coast, in the Caymans, and on the east Yucatan Coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s great to have radar too to analyze any trends tonight/tomorrow. Quote to bump this radar loop. Still looking formidable in the last frames. Recon also finding winds stronger than what all models were showing by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Of course I have to fly to texas next week. Tuesday, land at IAH in the evening. Lookout Texas. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Thread on important short-term northward/stronger trends noted regarding Beryl, and how this influences her potential TX/MX impacts:https://x.com/yconsor/status/1808853711629746332 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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