Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[Normandy]

20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Absolute utter devastation. This looks more like tornado damage. Just wow

Shout out to those concrete exterior walls that undoubtedly saved hundreds of lives yesterday.  United States wood framed construction would have been flattened by these winds

[NorthHillsWx]

23 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Shout out to those concrete exterior walls that undoubtedly saved hundreds of lives yesterday.  United States wood framed construction would have been flattened by these winds

100%. Anything that wasn’t concrete is gone. That’s one of the heaviest wind damage videos I’ve ever seen 

[Normandy]

To add more to the construction/ damage convo (which interests me since I’m an architect and love seeing how our structures perform against the big bad wolves).  I cannot imagine how terrifying it must have been for people In These houses….hiding in a corner under a mattress while the wind just plows through the inside of your house, sucking out all things from inside since the roof is gone.  scary scary shit.

the fact that there are not hundreds of people dead is a damn testament to these islands and how they build.  The United States of improper building codes should fucking take notice.  Make all gulf coast states design to the same code as California seismic code (which is equivalent to designing for a cat 5 more or less without getting too much into the weeds).  Just watch when one of these monsters comes ashore in the US, going to be really ugly.  

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

It is only the last hour I could see signs the shear limiting the W side convection has finally starting getting to the core.  I'd think data further W closer to the TUTT would be useful for predicting how much it does weaken.  ECENS still suggest strength in the Caribbean has some influence on track.

[Windspeed]

This ERC isn't going as smoothly as the first. Atmospheric conditons likely aren't what they were before with the TUTT in place. Still, the new eyewall should take over eventually, and the core is still outside of the strong axis of shear. Beryl should still be a major hurricane as it approaches Jamaica. Still, some questions remain on if the TUTT can get pinched off and where exactly the ULL develops with regards to shear in the NW Caribbean.

RE: Building codes. Most structures in the Windwards are made to withstand high winds. Generations of folks that aren't strangers to high wind events, most of which aren't due to hurricanes, but strong trade winds by the occasional stout low level easterly jet, beyond just an easterly storm or tropical disturbance. They don't have to necessarily be under threat of a hurricane to have gusty 30-60 mph days. That kind of weather is much less common along the GOM coastline unless there actually is a tropical cyclone. Unfortunately, it's a situation of economic factors and poor demographics versus the low frequency of high wind events, even if you live near the GOM coastline, that has led to years of bad building practices. Not everyone can afford a hurricane house, much less afford to live in a well-built house at all, hence all the mobile home parks and cheap flats that plague our residential infrastructure.

[GaWx]

18Z ICON sticking to its much further N guns.

[Normandy]

10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

This ERC isn't going as smoothly as the first. Atmospheric conditons likely aren't what they were before with the TUTT in place. Still, the new eyewall should take over eventually, and the core is still outside of the strong axis of shear. Beryl should still be a major hurricane as it approaches Jamaica. Still, some questions remain on if the TUTT can get pinched off and where exactly the ULL develops with regards to shear in the NW Caribbean.

RE: Building codes. Most structures in the Windwards are made to withstand high winds. Generations of folks that aren't strangers to high wind events, most of which aren't due to hurricanes, but strong trade winds by the occasional stout low level easterly jet, beyond just an easterly storm or tropical disturbance. They don't have to necessarily be under threat of a hurricane to have gusty 30-60 mph days. That kind of weather is much less common along the GOM coastline unless there actually is a tropical cyclone. Unfortunately, it's a situation of economic factors and poor demographics versus the low frequency of high wind events, even if you live near the GOM coastline, that has led to years of bad building practices. Not everyone can afford a hurricane house, much less afford to live in a well-built house at all, hence all the mobile home parks and cheap flats that plague our residential infrastructure.

Well the why we are in this situation is complicated and is more to do with how we are set up as a society.  But at a holistic level poorer countries having better building construction in vulnerable areas than a world “superpower” is unacceptable.  And this low frequency of wind events I don’t buy as a reason / justification.  Hurricanes have demolished communities for decades upon decades and this country refuses to change building codes to match the situation.  Same shit with tornado alley.  The only place we have even remotely modified building codes to mitigate disaster is in seismic zones.  After north ridge and and the Frisco quake of 1989 Cali codes were incredibly revamped, and nobody complained about costs because it had to be done to protect the life and safety of the people living in these buildings.  This even caused mass retrofitting of existing buildings to make them safer (and again nobody complained about costs, and if they did I’d didn’t matter because it became the law)  That level of detail and action does not occur in hurricane prone zones, even in Florida.

[Floydbuster]

The question becomes if Beryl increases in size and becomes less susceptible to the shear. Nevertheless, a large 115 mph hurricane could be worse than a tiny 145 mph one.

[Random Chaos]

The core looks unhealthy in this 2 hour old SSMIS 85GHz microwave pass:

[Floydbuster]

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtB-lXAmxYg

[Windspeed]

Well the why we are in this situation is complicated and is more to do with how we are set up as a society.  But at a holistic level poorer countries having better building construction in vulnerable areas than a world “superpower” is unacceptable.  And this low frequency of wind events I don’t buy as a reason / justification.  Hurricanes have demolished communities for decades upon decades and this country refuses to change building codes to match the situation.  Same shit with tornado alley.  The only place we have even remotely modified building codes to mitigate disaster is in seismic zones.  After north ridge and and the Frisco quake of 1989 Cali codes were incredibly revamped, and nobody complained about costs because it had to be done to protect the life and safety of the people living in these buildings.  This even caused mass retrofitting of existing buildings to make them safer (and again nobody complained about costs, and if they did I’d didn’t matter because it became the law)  That level of detail and action does not occur in hurricane prone zones, even in Florida.

The frequency of events has had an effect, however, in combination with economic status. Strict building codes are a recent development versus decades of lower income infrastructure. Prior to the 2000s, you could count the number of major landfalling GOM hurricanes on one hand since the population boom of the 1950s. Strict codes weren't in practice. Now we do have codes being implemented. But you consider the average household income and the cost of building? Take a supply list to Lowe's. Good luck. Poor people in general, not just contractors, do what they can to cut corners. I do not think mobile home parks should even exist near hurricane prone regions. Not to confuse with RV parks, because those are temporary, and you can evacuate them. But specifically, trailer homes. Additionally, for as great and world hyped as the US is as a military and economic superpower, there is a huge separation between the lower working classes and the few percent that can afford stricter building codes. The vast majority of its citizens struggle paycheck to paycheck. Most cannot afford to spend 300k on a home that can withstand a major hurricane. These islands, and Latin nations, may be poorer countries, yet they somehow have better access to lower cost building infrastructure than Americans do.

I am not arguing your point. I am simply stating empirical observation that the odds of an eyewall crossing your home are very low even along the GOM coastal region. People do what they can to survive the cost of living. The Southeastern US struggles with more than just building practices. Hence why we are where we are. You brought up California. Try to shop for a home there. If you can afford it, you aren't worried about building materials.

[Normandy]

I digress as this is a beryl discussion and perhaps a separate thread can be made for building code construction, but cost of living in California isn’t actually related to our building codes being stringent.  It does impact cost of construction, but land values are high because of the weather in Cali (and proximity to all types of natural forms entertainment like beach, snow, mountains, etc.  

[Floydbuster]

8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The frequency of events has had an effect, however, in combination with economic status. Strict building codes are a recent development versus decades of lower income infrastructure. Prior to the 2000s, you could count the number of major landfalling GOM hurricanes on one hand since the population boom of the 1950s. Strict codes weren't in practice. Now we do have codes being implemented. But you consider the average household income and the cost of building? Take a supply list to Lowe's. Good luck. Poor people in general, not just contractors, do what they can to cut corners. I do not think mobile home parks should even exist near hurricane prone regions. Not to confuse with RV parks, because those are temporary, and you can evacuate them. But specifically, trailer homes. Additionally, for as great and world hyped as the US is as a military and economic superpower, there is a huge separation between the lower working classes and the few percent that can afford stricter building codes. The vast majority of its citizens struggle paycheck to paycheck. Most cannot afford to spend 300k on a home that can withstand a major hurricane. These islands, and Latin nations, may be poorer countries, yet they somehow have better access to lower cost building infrastructure than Americans do.

I am not arguing your point. I am simply stating empirical observation that the odds of an eyewall crossing your home are very low even along the GOM coastal region. People do what they can to survive the cost of living. The Southeastern US struggles with more than just building practices. Hence why we are where we are. You brought up California. Try to shop for a home there. If you can afford it, you aren't worried about building materials.

This is true. I think Frances 2004 would not cause the same kind of damage if it occurred today. 

[wxmx]

46 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

The core looks unhealthy in this 2 hour old SSMIS 85GHz microwave pass:

Most recent pass. The eyewall is opening to the W. Looks like the SW quad is getting the brunt of the shear.

[Windspeed]

Lots of comparisons to Ivan and Gilbert with respect to Jamaica impacts on social media. I don't want to downplay Beryl, as folks there should prepare for a major hurricane landfall, or worst case, but potential is there for significant weakening of Beryl before it reaches the island. Those two storms were either rapidly intensifying (Gilbert) or close to MPI (Ivan) on their approach. Unless the TUTT closes off post haste and retrogrades quickly (this appears unlikely) prior to Beryl reaching Jamaica, Beryl should still be in a weakening trend on approach. It may even drop below Category 3 status prior to interaction. There are obvious differences between a weakening vortex and one that is intensifying or close to MPI. Again, trying not to downplay potential wind impacts there, I just do not think Beryl will be as severe as those previous TCs. Perhaps shear will do its job here. I should note that most of the TC (HWF and HAFS suites) models do maintain a major huricane on impact for now. We shall see...

I am concerned for flash flooding and mudslides. Not just for Jamaica, but Haiti as well. It's an old hat with these strong Caribbean TCs, but there is a strong boundary of ascent between Beryl and the ridge to the north. Training bands combined with orographic lift over the mountains of Hispaniola are going to squeeze 10-20 inches out of that airmass, despite Beryl's swift forward motion.

[Floydbuster]

Recon about to make a pass.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

NOAA FL winds to SE still support a Cat 3 storm, near 115 knots at flight level.  But that is still weaker than earlier, not a surprise which microwave images posted around the internet.  Is there any reason to favor the ICON or at least consider it a peer to the GFS, Euro or even Canadian? Maybe I have bias from a few years back when ICON's main value it was the first available global.  Maybe ICON has had an upgrade.

[gymengineer]

Probably stronger than most of us expected at this point!

[Normandy]

This is perfect timing for recon.   Monster convective burst commencing

[GaWx]

18Z Euro vs 12Z slightly N at Jamaica (right over it) followed by 70 miles further N at Yucatan and 150 miles further NE in BoC, where run ends at 90. Implies much further N landfall in W GOM had it gone further.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

18Z Euro vs 12Z slightly N at Jamaica (right over it) followed by 70 miles further N at Yucatan and150 miles further NE in BoC, where run ends at 90. Implies much further N landfall in W GOM had it gone further.

Like tennis volleys these models  

[MattPetrulli]

158 knot unflagged SFMR

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

158 knot unflagged SFMR

 

No chance 

[Floydbuster]

Wow Beryl is *much* stronger than I thought.

I think we may be getting too bullish on weakening. It will likely weaken but at this rate, likely still a potent hurricane until the Yucatan.

[NeffsvilleWx]

Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said:

No chance 

Eyewall meso?

[WxWatcher007]

All of those really high SFMR look rain contaminated to me. Even the unflagged 158kt wind comes with a rain rate of 2.12”/hr.

[Windspeed]

Lol... These SFMR readings are ridiculous.

[Floydbuster]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

All of those really high SFMR look rain contaminated to me. Even the unflagged 158kt wind comes with a rain rate of 2.12”/hr.

Likely, but I'm guessing this is still a solid Cat 4 right now.

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 71.7W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche.

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
south of Chetumal to Belize City.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Likely, but I'm guessing this is still a solid Cat 4 right now.

I agree. FL winds are still big time.