Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[Windspeed]

Pressure still dropping. Recon just had a pass with an extrapolated 934.9mb.

Pressures falling down into the 920s would be extremely impressive considering the higher background pressure regime across the eastern Caribbean and SW Atlantic Basin right now. 22 mph (19 kts) on a WNW heading is indicative of how strong the flow around the SPHS remains. Honestly, if Beryl wasn't already such a powerful vortex, or rather, a weak or developing TC, it would likely be having coupling issues with surface convergence and efficiency of latent heat content despite high SSTs. It's moving about as fast as Andrew was during its status as a Cat 5. I believe Janet was even a bit faster at 24 mph (21 kts). So fast Cat 5s do happen, obviously, but only after they're already strong TCs.

Edit: Actually, Andrew's top speed of 18 mph (16 kts) didn't occur until it reached the Bahamas. I am trying to find some other Category 5s that compare to Beryl with regards to forward motion if anyone wants to contribute.

Edit 2: Hurricane Ivan was moving at 17 mph when it attained Category 5 status in the same general area of ECARIB. Interestingly, it had a swift motion of 21 mph as a Category 4 storm in the MDR, but gradually slowed down to around 16 mph upon its tear through the ECARIB, then to nearly a stall and NW turn after Jamaica. *still looking*

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Nevermind yes, looked like it stayed barely off the coast. Otherwise it probably would've been another Gilbert for them.

I was listening to some radio station in Jamaica that night as were some others here on this forum or maybe easternwx, I recall the guys giving a play by play and it took somewhat of a last minute jog SW I think

[WEATHER53]

8 minutes ago, Jebman said:

145 kts = 171 mph.

Look, I dont want this. I never, EVER want to see a hurricane like this for real, but could this thing reach 200 mph?

I know this is a super anomalous season with above norm SSTs, but that would be beyond ridiculous. In early July. In the ECARIB, for gollys sakes.

People speak of the terrible shrieking  sound 

[Jebman]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

People speak of the terrible shrieking  sound 

Yeah I used to think I wanted to go chase a Cat 5 with a pro chaser, but naaaaah.

Risk can be fun but that would be pushing it. 

I'll stick with clearing brush in 103 weather in south Texas.

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

[WxWatcher007]

00z GFS significantly weakens Beryl but is a little further north for a direct hit on Jamaica Wednesday afternoon, a Yucatán landfall (also weak) Friday morning, and a further north track into south Texas (also weak) late Sunday. A good illustration of how much uncertainty there is later this week.

[GaWx]

1) Jamaica H landfalls since 1950, the first two of which were very bad major H hits from the E

1951: Charlie (E to W)(MH)

1988: Gilbert (E to W)(MH)

2012: Sandy (S to N on E end)

2) Jamaica H close misses since 1950: Ivan  and Dean very bad hits passing just S:

1950: King (W)

1964: Cleo (N)

1974: Carmen (S)

1980: Allen (N)

2001: Iris (S)

2004: Charley (S) and Ivan (S)(very bad hit)

2005: Dennis (NE)

2007: Dean (S)(very bad hit)

[Normandy]

Another MONSTER recon pass. 931 extrap. 154 KT FL winds In NE quad.  141 KT FL in NW quad.  Beast mode

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Just now, Normandy said:

Another MONSTER recon pass. 931 extrap. 154 KT FL winds In NE quad.  148 KT FL in NW quad.  Beast mode

Since I'm not a master of the various other sensors, and most are, by nature, hours out of date, I'm trying to work on change of lightning frequency.  Accurate for SETX storms near severe limits, more lightning, more likely severe, sudden drop, weakening imminent.

 

Lighting frequency is starting to decrease, Beryl is likely at the peak.  GFS well supported by ensembles in pronounced weakening before Jamaica, or odds of a major impact or even significant wind impact seems low.  Rain is still an issue.  I'm getting to IMBY mode, get to HEB or Kroger before the rush.  I still think signs are good so far for SETX.  Major hit in the US or MX mainland seems unlikely.  I still defer to NHC.

 

OT, models, why doesn't NHC use FSU super ensemble, which seemed to be AI before AI was cool, comparing model performance for different situations and learning to weight various model and ensembles based on prior forecast verification.?.  Is it just renamed, or did the FSU super-secret project only the NHC and select few could see, over?

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: big changes as it now skirts S coast of Jamaica, about worst possible track for them and would easily be worst hit there since Dean of 2007. Also, now crosses NE Yucatan on way to a central TX landfall with it restrengthening on way to TX. Prior run was Tampico! Ignore the winds (too low) and pressures (too high):

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.07.2024

             HURRICANE BERYL      ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N  63.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 02.07.2024    0  13.6N  63.8W      965            95
    1200UTC 02.07.2024   12  15.2N  67.7W      977            78
    0000UTC 03.07.2024   24  16.3N  71.6W      985            69
    1200UTC 03.07.2024   36  17.0N  75.3W      995            51
    0000UTC 04.07.2024   48  18.2N  78.8W     1000            47
    1200UTC 04.07.2024   60  19.2N  82.7W     1002            42
    0000UTC 05.07.2024   72  20.0N  86.0W     1002            40
    1200UTC 05.07.2024   84  21.3N  89.0W     1005            39
    0000UTC 06.07.2024   96  22.2N  91.6W     1003            35
    1200UTC 06.07.2024  108  24.2N  93.8W     1002            38
    0000UTC 07.07.2024  120  25.5N  95.6W      998            36
    1200UTC 07.07.2024  132  26.3N  96.5W      994            49
    0000UTC 08.07.2024  144  27.2N  97.0W      994            51
    1200UTC 08.07.2024  156  28.9N  97.3W      995            38
    0000UTC 09.07.2024  168  29.7N  98.3W      998            30

[jrips27]

...CATEGORY 5 BERYL STILL INTENSIFYING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK...

2:00 AM AST Tue Jul 2
Location: 14.2°N 65.8°W
Moving: WNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 935 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph


.

[Jebman]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z UKMET: big changes as it now skirts S coast of Jamaica, about worst possible track for them and would easily be worst hit there since Dean of 2007. Also, now crosses NE Yucatan on way to a central TX landfall with it restrengthening on way to TX. Prior run was Tampico! Ignore the winds (too low) and pressures (too high):

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.07.2024

             HURRICANE BERYL      ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N  63.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 02.07.2024    0  13.6N  63.8W      965            95
    1200UTC 02.07.2024   12  15.2N  67.7W      977            78
    0000UTC 03.07.2024   24  16.3N  71.6W      985            69
    1200UTC 03.07.2024   36  17.0N  75.3W      995            51
    0000UTC 04.07.2024   48  18.2N  78.8W     1000            47
    1200UTC 04.07.2024   60  19.2N  82.7W     1002            42
    0000UTC 05.07.2024   72  20.0N  86.0W     1002            40
    1200UTC 05.07.2024   84  21.3N  89.0W     1005            39
    0000UTC 06.07.2024   96  22.2N  91.6W     1003            35
    1200UTC 06.07.2024  108  24.2N  93.8W     1002            38
    0000UTC 07.07.2024  120  25.5N  95.6W      998            36
    1200UTC 07.07.2024  132  26.3N  96.5W      994            49
    0000UTC 08.07.2024  144  27.2N  97.0W      994            51
    1200UTC 08.07.2024  156  28.9N  97.3W      995            38
    0000UTC 09.07.2024  168  29.7N  98.3W      998            30

If Beryl were to hit Houston, Buda would have relatively weak north winds. It would not be all that bad for us. But if it hits Corpus........ uh - oh.

Everyone from Yucatan to Florida needs to watch. And pray.

This is getting serious scary. Nothing weakens Beryl. Not shear, not nothing.

[Windspeed]

Since I'm not a master of the various other sensors, and most are, by nature, hours out of date, I'm trying to work on change of lightning frequency.  Accurate for SETX storms near severe limits, more lightning, more likely severe, sudden drop, weakening imminent.
 
Lighting frequency is starting to decrease, Beryl is likely at the peak.  GFS well supported by ensembles in pronounced weakening before Jamaica, or odds of a major impact or even significant wind impact seems low.  Rain is still an issue.  I'm getting to IMBY mode, get to HEB or Kroger before the rush.  I still think signs are good so far for SETX.  Major hit in the US or MX mainland seems unlikely.  I still defer to NHC.
 
OT, models, why doesn't NHC use FSU super ensemble, which seemed to be AI before AI was cool, comparing model performance for different situations and learning to weight various model and ensembles based on prior forecast verification.?.  Is it just renamed, or did the FSU super-secret project only the NHC and select few could see, over?

In short, there is shear just to Beryl's NW. You can see strong 300-200 hPa level southwesterly flow blowing off the tops of storms in Beryl's bands to the north of the circulation. But the core remains separated from this stronger upper flow for now. How long Beryl's core remains undisturbed from that flow? Perhaps it can shrug it off until late Tuesday (today). Inevitably, it will have some impact. We'll have to watch how that upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) evolves, and if that fearure can close off and reteograde west (and at what distance it does so from Beryl) in the coming days. This will have a direct impact on Beryl and if it can maintain Major Hurricane intensity in close proximity to Jamaica. I do expect we will see a weakening hurricane, but how much and how quickly is the big question.

[Windspeed]

Meanwhile, Beryl continues to rip and may still be intensifying...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

In short, there is shear just to Beryl's NW. You can see strong 300-200 hPa level southwesterly flow blowing off the tops of storms in Beryl's bands to the north of the circulation. But the core remains separated from this stronger upper flow for now. How long Beryl's core remains undisturbed from that flow? Perhaps it can shrug it off until late Tuesday (today). Inevitably, it will have some impact. We'll have to watch how that upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) evolves, and if that fearure can close off and reteograde west (and at what distance it does so from Beryl) in the coming days. This will have a direct impact on Beryl and if it can maintain Major Hurricane intensity in close proximity to Jamaica. I do expect we will see a weakening hurricane, but how much and how quickly is the big question.

Levi Cowan said he doesn't buy storms get so strong they alter the surrounding environment, based on scale, but he did not discount a storm as intense as Beryl might put enough outflow out to pinch off the base of the TUTT, which shears or ventilates Beryl depending on how far it moves W ahead of Beryl.  Levi also said he is flying from Hawaii to the East Coast tomorrow, will be enough time zones from Hawaii to be jetlagged, and will post on a laptop.  I suspect a vacation from JTWC he thought would be before peak Pacific season.  That part is right, but nobody expects a Cat 4 (at the time) in early July in the Atlantic Basin.  I'm assuming most weenies like me have discovered his YouTube channel, hopefully he is getting paid for generating so many YouTube hits.

 

I'm still waiting for better agreement between global and high res hurricane models.  NHC forecasters earning their pay with beryl, and probably several more times this year.  Dr. Roundy told me the next favorable global wave pattern is probably late July/early August, and he doesn't see any reason it won't produce more storms.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Meanwhile, Beryl continues to rip and may still be intensifying...

So much for that brief decreae in lightning frequency meaning weakening.  It was just taking a short break.

[Normandy]

Watch the area around the coast of the southern DR / Haiti this morning.  This is where the shear zone / TUTT is currently.  The circulation of beryl is going to start interacting with this feature, and I’m guessing intense outer bands fire off on the NW quad.  The interaction between giants will be interesting, and im not sold on the TUTT shredding this.  Beryl is a really strong feature (not just at lower levels, it has a vicious anticyclone with great poleward outflow)

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

In short, there is shear just to Beryl's NW. You can see strong 300-200 hPa level southwesterly flow blowing off the tops of storms in Beryl's bands to the north of the circulation. But the core remains separated from this stronger upper flow for now. How long Beryl's core remains undisturbed from that flow? Perhaps it can shrug it off until late Tuesday (today). Inevitably, it will have some impact. We'll have to watch how that upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) evolves, and if that fearure can close off and reteograde west (and at what distance it does so from Beryl) in the coming days. This will have a direct impact on Beryl and if it can maintain Major Hurricane intensity in close proximity to Jamaica. I do expect we will see a weakening hurricane, but how much and how quickly is the big question.

 Jamaica’s only chance to avoid a very bad hit may be that shear between it and Beryl. So, that’s my hope to weaken it appreciably though it may not be enough to make much difference.

 Unfortunately, when looking at analogous tracks with a solid speed of movement from the E or ESE at/near Jamaica, I’m kind of discouraged. These storms, 1951’s Charlie, 1974’s Carmen, 1988’s Gilbert, 2001’s Iris, 2004’s Charley and Ivan, 2005’s Dennis and Emily, and Dean of 2007 either only weakened slightly, were steady, or strengthened on the way to Jamaica. As strong as it already is, I doubt it will be stronger than it is now once it gets there but am concerned it may only weaken slightly at most based on these 9 analogs and still be a MH. Fingers crossed it will weaken substantially. 

[TriPol]

165 mph winds. WOW.

[Windspeed]

Beryl has gone over 24 hours since the completion of its last EWRC. Perhaps a concentric band has intensified since last recon. I have no idea, as the most recent MW pass missed the TC. Regardless, the eyewall remains very stable. We may even have a sub 930s central pressure now due to the duration of persistent deep convection overnight. It doesn't look like Beryl has leveled off yet. Unfortunately, we've to wait a few more hours until the next reconnaissance mission.

[Jebman]

165 mph sustained winds. Just wow.

[NorthHillsWx]

My god. That is all. Speechless.

[Jebman]

51 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Beryl has gone over 24 hours since the completion of its last EWRC. Perhaps a concentric band has intensified since last recon. I have no idea, as the most recent MW pass missed the TC. Regardless, the eyewall remains very stable. We may even have a sub 930s central pressure now due to the duration of persistent deep convection overnight. It doesn't look like Beryl has leveled off yet. Unfortunately, we've to wait a few more hours until the next reconnaissance mission.

If Beryl becomes a sub-930 hurricane.......

[Windspeed]

Last MW pass scored a hit. And, well... though banding is evident, the eyewall remains solid and healthy.


Edit: Corrected image to SSMIS pass.

[Windspeed]

If this is an accurate video, Union Island in the Grenadines looks trashed.

[olafminesaw]

Could be a really bad track for pushing surge into Kingston

[Jebman]

AMZ001-022100-  Synopsis for Caribbean Sea, and Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to  19N W of 55W  500 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024      .SYNOPSIS...Major Hurricane Beryl is near 14.6N 66.9W at 5 AM  EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 19 kt. Maximum sustained  winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the minimum central  pressure is 935 mb. Beryl will move to 15.5N 69.6W this  afternoon, 16.5N 73.4W Wed morning, 17.4N 76.8W Wed afternoon,  18.2N 80.2W Thu morning, 18.7N 83.6W Thu afternoon, and 19.3N  86.7W Fri morning. Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm over  21.2N 91.8W early Sat. A surge of fresh to strong winds and  squalls is expected to move across the tropical N Atlantic  tonight through Wed, then across the eastern and central  Caribbean Wed through Fri, associated with a tropical wave,  Invest 96L.    $$

https://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.php?mz=amz041&syn=amz001

 

That's sustained winds of 166 mph, gusting to 201 mph.

This, is getting alarmingly BAD.

[MattPetrulli]

Wow.

Blend supports 155 knot+

[BooneWX]

928 on a recent drop…. Wow.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like cloud tops warming a bit on the western side. I know we thought this earlier, but likely has peaked.