WxSynopsisDavid Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 3 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: It cannot be emphasized enough how unbelievable this is. Not much to say except Beryl has defied pretty much all sense of climatology and conventional wisdom. It's going to be a long season. Also a textbook, classic example to teach in “Tropical Weather 101” of what happens when everything in the environment comes together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 8 minutes ago, Jebman said: I am concerned for wxmx's safety should Beryl strike Mexico. This is an extremely dangerous hurricane. Actually, the greater risk is for the Tampico area. I have seen this movie, multiple cyclones hitting near the Tampico area in a short period of time, with the Panuco and Tamesi basins over flooding, worst being 1933 and 1955. The rivers and lagoon system are already overflowing due to Alberto, PTC 2 and Chris, with the worst to come. If a Cat 2+ Beryl hits south or directly in Tampico, the Panuco river won't have a discharge channel due to the storm surge and a tragedy will ensue. Ironically, the region was in it's worst recorded drought a couple weeks ago. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 7 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: The fact it achieved this intensity so rapidly in an environment that wasn’t exactly pristine is all the more impressive. Other canes have had environments more conductive and failed to take advantage of the opportunity. Beryl more than achieved its peak. Really have to credit the high pressure overhead Beryl that aided in ventilation at the perfect time, right when diurnal max was peak. Wasn't a perfect environment but it did manage to go far enough south to dodge all the traditional early season barriers, including the area of high shear. Not to mention the consequences of record warm SSTs for this time of year. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 19 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Wasn't a perfect environment but it did manage to go far enough south to dodge all the traditional early season barriers, including the area of high shear. Not to mention the consequences of record warm SSTs for this time of year. We saw crazy pressure falls after the EWRC this morning. Winds responded and the last plane sampled a couple of hours ago and had 150mph cane. It's satellite presentation is impressive and has only gotten much better. The eye is nearly perfect and cleared out. We will likely never know but this is a good candidate to be upped to a cat 5 post-season (unless it's a cat 5 when next recon goes in). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 8 minutes ago, shaggy said: We saw crazy pressure falls after the EWRC this morning. Winds responded and the last plane sampled a couple of hours ago and had 150mph cane. It's satellite presentation is impressive and has only gotten much better. The eye is nearly perfect and cleared out. We will likely never know but this is a good candidate to be upped to a cat 5 post-season (unless it's a cat 5 when next recon goes in). Recon is scheduled to be in there in only 2.5 hours from now. It should still be at/near peak. The planes are flying from St. Croix, so it's a very short flight at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Recon is scheduled to be in there in only 2.5 hours from now. It should still be at/near peak. The planes are flying from St. Croix, so it's a very short flight at this point. If an EWRC does not commence, Recon Hunters will find Beryls true peak. This monster is a Category 5, and Beryl made the evolution to Cat 5 look easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 37 minutes ago, wxmx said: Actually, the greater risk is for the Tampico area. I have seen this movie, multiple cyclones hitting near the Tampico area in a short period of time, with the Panuco and Tamesi basins over flooding, worst being 1933 and 1955. The rivers and lagoon system are already overflowing due to Alberto, PTC 2 and Chris, with the worst to come. If a Cat 2+ Beryl hits south or directly in Tampico, the Panuco river won't have a discharge channel due to the storm surge and a tragedy will ensue. Ironically, the region was in it's worst recorded drought a couple weeks ago. Stay safe. Maybe Beryl will weaken some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 https://x.com/jpetramala/status/1807879154333016138?s=46 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 Euro ensembles suggest the strength of Beryl determines risk to Jamaica and landfall location in the Yucatan and beyond. The majority show weakening and a turn W. The minority that stays strong is further N the entire way and a threat to the Tamps. and TX coasts. There are some scary looking members even to Louisiana, but the strong/N members are about 20% of the ensemble members. Or I'll be watching, I may beat people to top off on gas, get a few more flashlights, fill empty gallon plastic bottles from the sink, but if the majority of the ensembles are correct, that won't happen at least for Beryl. The early big storm being the biggests, that would be nice. I don't know much about planetary waves, but I don't see why as summer progresses, the waters warm more, and South America starts to cool as the sun angle heads back for the equator, weakening trades in the Caribbean, that they'll be more majors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flapenny Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 2 hours ago, JoeStafford75 said: I think they meant the Grenada airport located on Carriacou. I've been following the Sandals resort feeds next to the Maurice Bishop Airport and it doesn't seem like they really had any gusts over 50mph. The resort staff is currently setting pool chairs and other items back up for use tomorrow. My friend's son is in Grenada going the medical school. He said it was not that bad there. Of course, he's a Florida boy so knows hurricanes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 4 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Euro ensembles suggest the strength of Beryl determines risk to Jamaica and landfall location in the Yucatan and beyond. The majority show weakening and a turn W. The minority that stays strong is further N the entire way and a threat to the Tamps. and TX coasts. There are some scary looking members even to Louisiana, but the strong/N members are about 20% of the ensemble members. Or I'll be watching, I may beat people to top off on gas, get a few more flashlights, fill empty gallon plastic bottles from the sink, but if the majority of the ensembles are correct, that won't happen at least for Beryl. The early big storm being the biggests, that would be nice. I don't know much about planetary waves, but I don't see why as summer progresses, the waters warm more, and South America starts to cool as the sun angle heads back for the equator, weakening trades in the Caribbean, that they'll be more majors Interesting on the strength component. Steering layers generally have differing guidance and that’s likely what it is picking up. Even if this storm weakens substantially (don’t see any reason that is likely), it will still be a very powerful hurricane. Weakening of a storm this strong often occurs by wind field expansion rather than central pressure increase. If this is the initial phase of weakening then even a weaker storm will be guided by deeper steering current guidance. Definitely can’t ignore northern tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
g0ldl10n Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Euro ensembles suggest the strength of Beryl determines risk to Jamaica and landfall location in the Yucatan and beyond. The majority show weakening and a turn W. The minority that stays strong is further N the entire way and a threat to the Tamps. and TX coasts. There are some scary looking members even to Louisiana, but the strong/N members are about 20% of the ensemble members. Or I'll be watching, I may beat people to top off on gas, get a few more flashlights, fill empty gallon plastic bottles from the sink, but if the majority of the ensembles are correct, that won't happen at least for Beryl. The early big storm being the biggests, that would be nice. I don't know much about planetary waves, but I don't see why as summer progresses, the waters warm more, and South America starts to cool as the sun angle heads back for the equator, weakening trades in the Caribbean, that they'll be more majors Yep, steering currents agree and show the stronger it stays, the more northerly path it will take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 12 minutes ago, g0ldl10n said: Yep, steering currents agree and show the stronger it stays, the more northerly path it will take. There are ensemble members that apparently shift or weaken the big high over Texas enough even Louisiana is in play. But as mentioned, the majority of the Euro members show weakening and a turn W with lower threats to Jamaica, the Yucatan, and mainland coast of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Rebuilding my Twitter share reputation here’s footage of the strike on the islands by Brandon Clement. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Definitely need to keep an eye on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Rebuilding my Twitter share reputation here’s footage of the strike on the islands by Brandon Clement. Reminds me of iCyclone coverage Beryl is one horrifically BAD storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Rebuilding my Twitter share reputation here’s footage of the strike on the islands by Brandon Clement. I'm trying to see why someone seemed to be yahoo-ing as homes were getting damaged, but at least the homes seem well built, Not well built enough not to prevent major roof damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 16 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I'm trying to see why someone seemed to be yahoo-ing as homes were getting damaged, but at least the homes seem well built, Not well built enough not to prevent major roof damage. I’ve never understood that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 I am holding out some hope, that Beryl gets weakened a lot passing over the Yucatan. If Beryl weakened to a tropical storm, I would not mind it hitting Texas. I'd get cool clouds, 15 mph winds and a couple inches of rain. No muss, no fuss, no one gets hurt. Maybe the dunes lose a couple inches of sand. We can stand that. But HURRICANE Beryl. No way. It needs to weaken then die over dry land as a TS. It better not hit Tampico either, they already have way too much water in those basins. One thing I just now found out. I am NOT so safe. I am only 142 miles from that GoMex. Gonnabe a long season, and I'll worry myself silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I'm trying to see why someone seemed to be yahoo-ing as homes were getting damaged, but at least the homes seem well built, Not well built enough not to prevent major roof damage. Same reason people screamed when Alex pereira nearly knocked the head off jiri this weekend. People like to see violence sometimes. No need to try and see the why when it comes to this situation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Beryl starting to look rugged, losing that symmetrical appearance. Shear and dry air impeding the northeast quad. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Beryl is currently around 13.3N 63.8W looking at imagery. The last hurricane this strong near those coordinates in the eastern Caribbean was Maria in 2017. Maria was at Category 5 intensity, but in September, with more climatological support. Remote sensing data has suggested Beryl may have continued to drop in pressure since the last reconnaissance data. The next flight may find that Beryl is now a Category 5 as well. If so, Beryl would be the earliest in record-keeping, breaking Emily's July 16th date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Beryl starting to look rugged, losing that symmetrical appearance. Shear and dry air impeding the northeast quad. that's a stretch. Maybe a touch of a degrading IEW but it's far from looking rugged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 What Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: that's a stretch. Maybe a touch of a degrading IEW but it's far from looking rugged Compared to earlier, its current appearance is rugged and lopsided. Beryl is certainly starting to feel the impacts of shear and dry air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 Refreshing the recon page on TT now. The plane is flying from the Virgin Islands, latest refresh it may have begun to descent to storm level. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Beryl does have strong banding that will inevitably lead to another EWRC or at least a merger. There are still CBs ongoing; the core appearance remains healthy, but there may also be a double eyewall structure in the eastern semicircle. Need recon or an MW scan, but overall, Beryl still looks like a high-end TC. Anxious for the next recon pass to see what is under the hood. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 I wish we had recon 2 hours ago 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 I wish we had recon 2 hours ago I think they're setting up for a NE to SW quad pass. If Beryl attained Category 5 a few hours ago, even if there is an outer wind maxima from a double eyewall, the inner is most likely still cranking 156+. Just based on the color differences in banding on IR, I don't think the current cycle or merger is mature enough to rob Beryl of peak intensity yet. They should have vortex data within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Extensive, high end wind damage on Carriacou. Many, many structures with roofs torn off and a good number that are completely destroyed, near complete vegetation loss. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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