canderson Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Brandon Clement is in Carriacou and tweeted 4 minutes ago as of this post they had their roof ripped off the room they were in but were OK and moving to another secure shelter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF BERYL MOVING OVER CARRIACOU ISLAND... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 61.3W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF GRENADA ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Latest recon pass is nuts. Hope that's an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks less menacing for the US in the longer term, but far too early to write it off. I have to wait to near 11 am CDT to see GFS, and I have an appointment, off to the shower, but if the 12Z models confirm the 0Z models, I think while nobody can't rule out the odd ensemble member that comes at Texas or Louisiana as a strong hurricane, the odds are quite remote. Some people seem to see the GFS 30 minutes before I do and the Euro more than an hour earlier. I also think the NHC forecast of a hurricane into the Yucatan is being on the side of caution. Jamaica, I think might be a hurricane, might not. It is good watches are up already there. They might get lucky on the winds, but they might not. Never been there, a James Bond movie from before I was born suggests some terrain which would enhance rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Is anybody streaming from down there?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1807792509869085153?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Latest recon pass is nuts. Hope that's an error. High rainfall rate, it could be an error but perhaps not “The SFMR performance is highly reliable at hurricane-force wind speeds, but accuracy is found to degrade at weaker wind speeds, particularly in heavy precipitation. Specifically, a significant overestimation of surface wind speeds is found in these conditions, suggesting inaccurate accounting for the impact of rain on the measured microwave brightness temperature.” https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atot/31/11/jtech-d-14-00028_1.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 We’ve also seen instances where SFMR are discounted at extremely high speeds, or found to be more instantaneous than sustained. Not saying that’s the case here but we’ve seen it before on our high end storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 150 mph at landfall, absolutely unreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: 150 mph at landfall, absolutely unreal. Absolutely incredible. July 1. In the MDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 150 mph at landfall, absolutely unreal.For posterity sake https://x.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1807795487132844468?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Everybody on deck Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1110 AM AST Mon Jul 1 2024 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL MAKES LANDFALL ON CARRIACOU ISLAND... ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL STRONGER... Satellite imagery and Barbados radar data indicate that the eye of Beryl has made landfall on Carriacou Island at 1110 AM AST (1510 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Beryl's maximum sustained winds have increased to 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 950 mb (28.05 inches). SUMMARY OF 1110 AM AST...1510 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 61.5W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF CARRIACOU ISLAND ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Kelly/Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 53 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I bet she already is high end cat 4. The satellite loop showing on the CNN home page is a terrifying sight. Really shows the rapid recovery and symmetry of the eye 150mph 950 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Must be horrifying for anyone who remained. Direct hit with very distinct mesovortices included. With an intensifying huirricane I would not be surprised if there were some EXTREME instantaneous local gusts over 175 mph. but we will never know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 A radar picture to remember this storm by: 19 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 6mb drop between recon passes. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Man it hit that island dead center.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 A radar picture to remember this storm by:Looks like an eye-wall merger. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Just now, Bhs1975 said: Man it hit that island dead center. . Eastern eye wall looks more fierce than western eye wall so a wild ride coming after the calm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Wow: H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 149kts (171.5mph) http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2024&product=vortex&storm=Beryl&mission=06&agency=AF&ob=07-01-145510-21-950-132(132)-149(149) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 6 minutes ago, MANDA said: Eastern eye wall looks more fierce than western eye wall so a wild ride coming after the calm. SEVERE TURB AND FREQ LTG IN NE QUAD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 8 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: A radar picture to remember this storm by: Highest winds likely on union Island. Even Canouan got a bit of the core with the larger eye. Surge up into Clifton harbor. Obviously near peak winds on Carricou as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Crazy jump in lightening counts in 1-2 radar sweeps (see my previous post for the last count): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 11 hours ago, GaWx said: As expected they just canceled the planned 7/3 stop in Jamaica. However, somewhat to my surprise they kept the 7/2 stop in Grand Cayman. I thought they’d probably also cancel that to be extra conservative to at least stay far enough away from higher waves. So, they’ll be in Cozumel on 7/1, GC on 7/2, and have an extra day at sea on 7/3. They'd go north up and around Cuba after the stop in Cayman. Still plenty of time to get out of there and still have a smooth ride for passengers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Thankfully it is moving along at a pretty fast clip of 20 mph thus shortening the duration of effects on the Windwards somewhat vs what would have occurred with slower movement. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flagman69 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Flying to Cancun on Friday. Hope the southern trend keeps up with weakening, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Thankfully it is moving along at a pretty fast clip of 20 mph thus shortening the duration of effects on the Windwards somewhat vs what would have occurred with slower movement. 6mb drop between passes and it was at 150mph......question is did that represent the winds had already caught up to pressure falls or do we see this make a run a cat 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 IMO there’s evidence this is already at cat 5. Radar, flight data, and satellite could all be used to say this is a 5. It’d close. I don’t think it’s done deepening yet either. 150 or 160, not terribly much difference. At least it missed the larger islands, those islands it did hit are likely shredded and will be uninhabitable after the storm for a long period. I hope everyone has safe shelter, I expect Irma-like images after the storm passes. As others have said, when you see these mesovortices you can get gusts much higher than the stated sustained wind. I have no doubt extreme winds well over cat 5 are being experienced at least in gusts. This storm is an absolute specimen. Hopefully we avoid loss of life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: IMO there’s evidence this is already at cat 5. Radar, flight data, and satellite could all be used to say this is a 5. It’d close. I don’t think it’s done deepening yet either. 150 or 160, not terribly much difference. At least it missed the larger islands, those islands it did hit are likely shredded and will be uninhabitable after the storm for a long period. I hope everyone has safe shelter, I expect Irma-like images after the storm passes. As others have said, when you see these mesovortices you can get gusts much higher than the stated sustained wind. I have no doubt extreme winds well over cat 5 are being experienced at least in gusts. This storm is an absolute specimen. Hopefully we avoid loss of life Structures seem pretty solid concrete. All the roofs will likely be gone though. Even in Irma many well built buildings faired well, and that was a much stronger hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 If you look at the high refresh IR imagery (for instance COD) i’m seeing gravity waves in the hurricane. Been watching for these since rapid intensification yesterday but only showed up in the last hour or so. Often indicative of a strengthening storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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