Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 First hint of a wind max away from the eyewall/EWRC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 11PM AST discussion with quite a focus on ongoing structural changes within Beryl and post-EWRC potential: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Barbados radar is seeing the eye/eyewall pretty well now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Beryl to be in the middle of an EWRC and maintaining its intensity and wind speeds is impressive. The case studies on Beryl will be great reads. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Beryl to be in the middle of an EWRC and maintaining its intensity and wind speeds is impressive. The case studies on Beryl will be great reads.Irma did the same thing at an even much higher intensity. Also, I repeat this ad nauseam, but replacement cycles do not follow a script. Sometimes, the outer band will merge into the inner eye, closing the moat, and never allowing a full concentric eyewall to form. This can actually cause the inner eye to expand into the larger band without a complete breakdown of the eyewall. It's more obvious on radar, but on satellite, the eye never cloud fills, the cloudless region just gets larger. Irma did this twice. We've watched numerous typhoons do the same. It's still considered an ERC, but it's really more of a partial cycle and eyewall merger.Edit: I should note that a full EWRC or partial can still result in the two wind maxima joining and an increase in the overall windfield. But a full collapse of the eyewall is not always a guarantee. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 17 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Beryl to be in the middle of an EWRC and maintaining its intensity and wind speeds is impressive. The case studies on Beryl will be great reads. I look forward to those, if I don't get swept away by a direct Beryl strike on Buda lol. I would like them in PDF form please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Tried to get a video from Jonathan Petramala to embed. Here’s the tweet. They are on the west side of the island of Carriacouhttps://x.com/jpetramala/status/1807605328919527549?s=46 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 A little more historical perspective on Beryl since record-keeping... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 The beauty of Carriacou breaks my heart. I wish there was some way this thing could turn away from that island. Its going to flatten that beautiful place. Its so remote, help is gonna be hard pressed as heck to get to them, no electric, no drinkable waters and no food and likely humid and hot as hades the day after. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 34 minutes ago, Jebman said: I look forward to those, if I don't get swept away by a direct Beryl strike on Buda lol. I would like them in PDF form please. I too request pdf, you are not alone in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 On 6/28/2024 at 3:27 PM, GaWx said: Does anyone have a feel for the risk to Jamaica for July 3rd? Relatives of mine have a cruise going there then and I haven’t had any time to look at progs. TIA As expected they just canceled the planned 7/3 stop in Jamaica. However, somewhat to my surprise they kept the 7/2 stop in Grand Cayman. I thought they’d probably also cancel that to be extra conservative to at least stay far enough away from higher waves. So, they’ll be in Cozumel on 7/1, GC on 7/2, and have an extra day at sea on 7/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 Globals seem to be trending S. I'm not planning to stay up for the Euro but I suspect it follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 sort of looks like a skull or face with its mouth open 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 Inner eyewall looks to be fading fast. https://www.barbadosweather.org/Radars/LeafScripts/BMSRadarProducts.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 Night. GFS ensemble also with a shift S. Almost all show weakening before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Inner eyewall looks to be fading fast. https://www.barbadosweather.org/Radars/LeafScripts/BMSRadarProducts.phpIt looks like it is merging into the intense eastern band that is essentially the eastern eyewall now. There isn't really a concentric moat feature. This looks like the merger style ERC I mentioned earlier, and now that we have a clear view from Barbados, it looks almost complete. Intensification may resume once finished. I'm curious if the eye ever fully fills in tonight on satellite with cloudcover since this looks like more of a merger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 I recall Hurricane Ian had the most terrifying eyewall replacement cycle, maintaining Category 3 intensity and then rapidly strengthening into a Category 5 near the Dry Tortugas. I also think back to Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and Hurricane Frances in 2004, both had constant eyewall replacement cycles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Oh wow... This is completing quickly! 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Starting to cook again. Lucky to have this in radar range to document inner core processes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 29 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Oh wow... This is completing quickly! Here is the latest radar return from Barbados, it looks dare I say practically complete with the EWRC... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 New hot towers going up on IR too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Impending very sad and scary situation for those islands. But at least it has weakened a little for now. Fingers crossed it won’t restrengthen before passing them. It’s going to be bad enough as it is barring a near miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 0Z Euro: a little S of Jamaica to Belize to Tampico. 0Z UKMET also into Belize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Doesn’t want to fully complete the ERC. Extreme hot towers going up now. Let’s see if this pushes it past the finish line. EDIT: radar looks like a complete ERC. Strengthening seems imminent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Doesn’t want to fully complete the ERC. Extreme hot towers going up now. Let’s see if this pushes it past the finish line. EDIT: radar looks like a complete ERC. Strengthening seems imminent Very explosive CB that's canopy cirrus is actually spilling over the eye. I expect that coverage to encircle and expand the CDO. Looks like an intensification trend is beginning to me. Not good timing for Grenada and the Grenadines. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 14 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Very explosive CB that's canopy cirrus is actually spilling over the eye. I expect that coverage to encircle and expand the CDO. Looks like an intensification trend is beginning to me. Not good timing for Grenada and the Grenadines. Nope, not good at all. Radar presentation is rapidly improving. I agree, the CDO is likely to become more symmetric again and radar seems to be confirming that with a strong band wrapping all the way around the eye. What looked like the islands may be catching a break a few hours ago now looks like a larger and just as strong storm may be the reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 New eye is starting to clear out now. Estimating the growth during this EWRC looks like the dense convection has more than doubled the radius since yesterday. Before EWRC: After EWRC: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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