Hurricane Beryl - Hurricane Warning - Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass Texas

[Normandy]

The lightning in the core, insane cloud motions in the eye, and general overall IMPRESSIVE vorticity signature pulling in inflow from hundreds of miles away suggest this is very likely on the cusp of cat 5 intensity.  Any intense convective bursts bring it near or at that level.
 

As has been said by others, impressive doesn’t even begin to describe it.  I’m still having a hard time believing it’s happening like THIS this early.  Wild.  

[Amped]

The ADT numbers have leveled off the last few hour,s so the intensification may have plateaued for now.   Hurricane models did show some brief dry air intrusions over the course of the day.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

If an EWRC started now, could Beryl weaken enough not to being major hurricane winds to at least some of the islands?  

 

Checking Wiki, they are privately owned islands.  I hope those had sea planes.  One thing in the islands favor, some are volcanic, which suggests little shallow water to build surge on.  Besides the small RMW.

[Castaway]

Hurricane Beryl is enjoying the depths by the Guiana Basin. It’ll pick up obviously as it approaches the islands. 

Currently where this beast popped up has depths of 4000 meters, or just east of it.

Also according to wiki:

“The beaches on the southern margin are important hatching grounds for the vulnerable Leatherback sea turtle, with the region supporting the largest Leatherback nesting area in the world.^{[13] [13]”}
 

Luckily for them it’s north and moving west of them. The newly discovered large oil field isn’t far from there also.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Didn't think there was going to be an ERC today, dry air is inhibiting the ability of the core to expand at this time, and the core usually expands prior to an ERC.

[Windspeed]

Didn't think there was going to be an ERC today, dry air is inhibiting the ability of the core to expand at this time, and the core usually expands prior to an ERC.

There are some outter bands, but like you said, dry air to the north is keeping them from consolidating into an outter ring. Irma went days with partial ERC failures due to the same scenario. However, moist southerly flow could abate drier stable airmass and allow an outter ring to form by the time Beryl reaches the islands. So we can't rule out an EWRC starting prior to land interaction. We still have a full 24 hour window.

[jrips27]

5PM advisory calling for a peak of 145mph overnight

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 11.1N 56.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 11.7N 59.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 12.8N 62.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 14.2N 66.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 16.4N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 18.8N 84.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Honestly, with Beryl being so small it’s growing highly unlikely that an EWRC begins before striking the islands. With the dry air preventing expansion of the windfield, it will take land interaction with the islands to induce an EWRC. 
 

This is where my concern grows. If Beryl waits until land interaction with the islands to induce an EWRC, than it’s possible that completes before entering the Caribbean near Jamaica. Smaller storms are more resilient to shear. If Beryl maintains this small compact size than those intensity forecast showing weakening approaching the Yucatan could be wrong.

It’s very possible that Beryl achieves a second peak on approach to the Yucatan. Really believe this is what Josh Morgerman is banking on. Reason why he did not play Island Roulette. Interesting enough, I heard that some in-house data at the NHC is starting to show this potential 2nd peak scenario.

[jrips27]

Certainly going to be wobble watching overnight, but its beginning to look like one of the most at risk islands of a direct hit will be Carriacou (part of Grenada)

A quick Wikipedia search reveals a population of 10,000 people. Hopefully they can avoid a direct hit

[Reb]

26 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

Certainly going to be wobble watching overnight, but its beginning to look like one of the most at risk islands of a direct hit will be Carriacou (part of Grenada)

A quick Wikipedia search reveals a population of 10,000 people. Hopefully they can avoid a direct hit

My wife’s cousin and wife are at St Vincent on their honeymoon. Due to leave tomorrow but flights have been delayed til next Saturday.

[Windspeed]

960 mb is a pretty high observed central pressure for a Category 4 hurricane. However, 1) Beryl has a very tight core of gradient-driven winds and 2) is embedded within higher overall background pressure regime influenced by the strong SPHS cell positioned directly to the north of the hurricane. Essentially, this means that if the central pressure continues to fall, Beryl could attain high-end Category 4 with only another 10 millibars of pressure drop and would hypothetically attain Category 5 windspeeds in the 940s hPa. I am not saying that it will, but background pressures and the core riding such a strong easterly low-level jet means that the northern eyewall could be very destructive if it encounters any of Windward islands.

[GaWx]

Guess where Beryl is:

[Windspeed]

Recon just punched the weaker western and southern eyewall.

[cptcatz]

955 mb on this new recon pass. NW winds no higher but we'll need to see the NE pass

[Tezeta]

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

What chasers are covering this storm? Need to get my social media searches prepped for tomorrow 

 

 

you can usually count on Jim Edds to not be scared off by island roulette

[BlunderStorm]

Beryl is beginning to show up on Barbados radar. https://www.barbadosweather.org/Radars/LeafScripts/BMSRadarProducts.php

[Floydbuster]

 

[Windspeed]

The biggest concern is for the northern eyewall raking across one of the Grenadines. There are a number of communities, port and resort towns located on these islands.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Any sign of a concentric eye wall yet? I would be surprised if Beryl doesn't begin an EWRC prior to direct impact with the Windwards given the size/structure attm......which may not be good news because the more intense/tighter system may very well miss all of the larger islands with the truly dangerous winds. It probably wouldn't have much time to expand, though....myabe just drop the max sustained winds.

I feel like beginning an EWRC PRIOR to encountering the more hostile environment in the Caribbean will be key to its ability to reintensify down the road.

Some signs that awaited EWRC has commenced...

[Windspeed]

Some signs that awaited EWRC has commenced...

The eye has moved into an attenuated section of returns on the radar beam, blocked by a mountain to the SE of the tower on Barbados. However, there is definitely good banding outside the eyewall right now that might be consolidating into an outer ring.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Windspeed]

RE: EWRC ... Some discussion ongoing right now between Webb and Hazelton about any potential for this.

Ahhh... @WxWatcher007 beat me to it. lol..

[BooneWX]

At its current size, it’s more likely to complete the ERC efficiently (and unfortunately). 

[Windspeed]

We should also remember that the MPI in Beryl's location based solely on SSTs and OHC is much higher than what atmospheric conditions would support. Obviously, Beryl is now an intense Category 4 cyclone; however, it is still fighting moderate mid-to-upper easterly flow in position to the strong SPHS cell to its north. These conditions were not enough to prevent Beryl from rapidly intensifying, but such flow can interrupt intensification or at least prevent MPI from occurring. Brief ingestion of dry air due to this flow can erode the eyewall or perhaps allow a faster onset of EWRC if outer banding is already strong. Again, as has been repeated, structural evolution is hard to predict. EWRCs do also fail to complete or get interrupted by such an environment as we have found out with other swiftly tracking CV systems like Irma. The HAFS-B simulations that show an EWRC completing tonight are interesting but must be taken with a grain of salt. It's a chaotic process in a nutshell.

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

RE: EWRC ... Some discussion ongoing right now between Webb and Hazelton about any potential for this.

Ahhh... @WxWatcher007 beat me to it. lol..

It will be interesting to see how quickly the ERC finishes, and if that actually precedes another period of RI. 

Longer term is interesting even with so much consensus right now. 
 

 

 

 

 

Edit: yup ^  

 

[Jebman]

NE Mex landfall. That is bad for Mexico, but at least all south central Tx would see are a few low scudding cumulus and maybe a 25 mph breeze, maybe a couple of stray tropical showers.

I'll take it.

[Windspeed]

To reiterate the previous points, a nice snippet from Dr. Levi Cowan on any structural changes and intensity fluctuations tonight and tomorrow:

It wouldn't be surprising for Beryl's small core to go through organizational phases that lead to intensity fluctuations both up and down. This is especially true in the presence of light northeasterly shear that is beginning to change direction, leading to perturbations in the hurricane's structure. The NOAA_HurrHunter aircraft recently measured a vortex tilt of 12 km from a height of 2 to 5 km, indicating that the shear is having some impact on the inner core.

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

RE: EWRC ... Some discussion ongoing right now between Webb and Hazelton about any potential for this.

Ahhh... @WxWatcher007 beat me to it. lol..

I figured it had too in short order given how small it is and how rapidly it spun up.

[Windspeed]

NE Mex landfall. That is bad for Mexico, but at least all south central Tx would see are a few low scudding cumulus and maybe a 25 mph breeze, maybe a couple of stray tropical showers.
I'll take it.

Wayyyy too early to try and nail down specifics for landfall points in the western GOM, north or south, for now. Modeling can change pretty drastically that far out. Really, everyone around the GOM should keep tabs on this.