Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 95L has been designated. Possible Caribbean threat next week. Euro and ensembles are aggressive moving it into the Caribbean, GFS and ensembles less so, showing weakening. Post the images and model goodies here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Jfl at the 2005 comparison it’s ogre https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1806056643374805498 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 The 12z Euro is giga aggressive, has a mogger low-end Cat 4 in the western Caribbean at +216. This would be very weird for July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Giga aggressive is a good way to put it, though I assume giga=uber for us olds I’m going to be skeptical of high end development with SAL and the graveyard lurking, but let’s see if this can organize in the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Giga aggressive is a good way to put it, though I assume giga=uber for us olds true. Or tera aggressive 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m going to be skeptical of high end development with SAL and the graveyard lurking, but let’s see if this can organize in the next few days. Ah yes the fluffy cloud reaper in the Caribbean awaits. We shall see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Euro shows the TUTT disappearing, which is why it is going crazy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 50 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 95L has been designated. Possible Caribbean threat next week. Euro and ensembles are aggressive moving it into the Caribbean, GFS and ensembles less so, showing weakening. Post the images and model goodies here. JFL AT THE SHIPS FORECAST THEY ARE SAYING BERYL MIGHT UNIRONICALLY BE A TERAMOGGER THIS IS CAGEFUEL IT’S OVER 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 22 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: Euro shows the TUTT disappearing, which is why it is going crazy. Don’t check SHIPS or the Euro it’s jova for TUTTcels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 It’s over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 The last few GFS OP runs have strong westerly shear embedded across the western and central Caribbean during the range in which a hypothetical TC/95L would be running through the region. Which is why, though the GFS brings 95L to hurricane intensity through the Lesser Antilles, ramps down the TC significantly late in the forecast.The most recent ECMWF that has caught everyone's attention does something much different with the upper Caribbean environment. Shear is initially there, however, a TUTT closes into a potent ULL that retrogrades west at enough distance in front of hypothetical TC track to allow significant intensification from the central into the WCARIB prior to the Yucatan.These sims are very late in the forecast so it will change, but it is worth explaining the difference between the two mid-range solutions. Confidence must remain low on anything until we have a center to track and upper pattern within closer proximity to forecast. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 26 Author Share Posted June 26 18Z GFS has a pretty MOGified TC into the Windward Islands. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 37 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 18Z GFS has a pretty MOGified TC into the Windward Islands. Peak intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 26 Author Share Posted June 26 About 970 mb. I don't have a PPV model service which would show max wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: About 970 mb. I don't have a PPV model service which would show max wind. Any possible analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Giga aggressive is a good way to put it, though I assume giga=uber for us olds I’m going to be skeptical of high end development with SAL and the graveyard lurking, but let’s see if this can organize in the next few days. Giga-Mog 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 26 Author Share Posted June 26 9 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Any possible analogs? I could be crazy and say Dennis. But I won't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 17 minutes ago, Jebman said: Giga-Mog The Hernan Drago of hurricanes 13 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I could be crazy and say Dennis. But I won't. Is Elsa an underestimate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 27 Author Share Posted June 27 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95): Satellite images indicate that a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better organized since yesterday with a more concentrated area of thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be unusually conducive for late June across the central and western tropical Atlantic, and further development of this system is anticipated. A tropical depression or tropical storm could form this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Sometimes a season shows you who it is early. Believe it folks. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95): Satellite images indicate that a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better organized since yesterday with a more concentrated area of thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be unusually conducive for late June across the central and western tropical Atlantic, and further development of this system is anticipated. A tropical depression or tropical storm could form this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. It’s jova. Is 95L on cyclone HGH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Wow this season is gonna be insane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Is it August 26, or is it June 26? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: It’s jova. Is 95L on cyclone HGH? If it is we are in serious trouble, Jova had 160mph sustained winds. Storm like that smashing into the GoMex communities would be a catastrophe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 5 minutes ago, Jebman said: Is it August 26, or is it June 26? August 26 in Minecraft 2 minutes ago, Jebman said: If it is we are in serious trouble, Jova had 160mph sustained winds. Storm like that smashing into the GoMex communities would be a catastrophe. Do you think it might happen one day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: If it is we are in serious trouble, Jova had 160mph sustained winds. Storm like that smashing into the GoMex communities would be a catastrophe. It would be jova for gomexcels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 8 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: August 26 in Minecraft Do you think it might happen one day? I hope it never does. However the SSTs are high with a developing Nina. Its unfortunately a possibility this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 56 minutes ago, Jebman said: I hope it never does. However the SSTs are high with a developing Nina. Its unfortunately a possibility this season. I hope it never happens. I’m on edge especially since I tracked last year’s EPAC. it’s so jova it if happens though but hopefully never in a million years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Good lord 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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