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July 2024 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith
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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Table of forecasts for July 2024

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

hudsonvalley21 ______________+4.3 _ +2.9 _ +2.9 ___+2.4 _ +2.6 _+2.2 ___ +2.5 _+2.3 _+0.7

rainsucks ____________________+4.2 _ +4.2 _ +4.3 ___+4.5 _ +3.3 _+3.1 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.4

RJay _________________________+3.7 _ +3.7 _ +3.7 ___ +3.7 _ +3.7 _+3.5 ___+3.5 _+2.7 _+1.0

George BM ___________________+3.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.7 ___ +2.2 _ +3.0 _+1.9 ___ +0.7 _+1.2 _ -0.7

wxallannj _____________________+2.8 _ +2.6 _ +2.7 ___ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +1.6 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _+2.3

Tom __________________________+2.6 _ +2.8 _ +2.6 ___ +3.1 _ +2.8 _ +2.4 ___ +2.3 _+1.9 _+0.8

so_whats_happening ________ +2.4 _ +2.2 _ +2.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.3 _+1.9 __ +1.1

___ Consensus ______________+2.4 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 ___ +2.3 _ +2.0 _+1.6 ___+2.2 _+1.9 _ +0.8 

DonSutherland1 _____________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +2.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _+1.8 _ +0.2

Scotty Lightning _____________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___+2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _+2.0 _ +0.5

Roger Smith__________________ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ +2.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 ___ +2.3 _ +4.5 _+2.3

Stormchaser Chuck __________+1.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +3.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.1 ___ +3.4 _ +0.6 _ -0.5

RodneyS _____________________+0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.9 ___ -0.1 _ +0.6 _ +1.0 ____+1.1 __ +1.0 _ +1.1

wxdude64 ___________________+0.4 _ +0.3 _ +0.2 ___ -0.3 _ -0.4 _ -0.3 ____+1.7 _ +1.6 _ +1.4

___ Normal ____________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

==================

Color coded for high and low forecasts. Normal is lowest for DCA, NYC, BOS and DEN. 

___ Persistence (June 2024) ______+3.4 __ +3.1 __ +2.9 ___ +3.3 __ +3.5 __ +1.6 _____ +5.6 __ +5.6 __ -1.0

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Updated highs for 2024 so far ... see June contest thread for forecasts and previous values to date. 

DCA_104 (7/16) ... NYC_95 ... BOS_98 ... ORD_97 ... ATL_100 ... IAH_ 100 ... DEN_102 (7/12) ... PHX_118 ... SEA _ 98 (9th)

I have beat them all except PHX so far (105 locally today July 10). Las Vegas 120 and Death Valley 129, not going to want to beat those. 

Will update anomalies at mid-month after 16 days as I consider 1-16 first half of a 31-day month.  

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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..Anomalies so far in July ...

 

___________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(7-17) __ anom for 1-16 ______ +4.8 _ +3.8 _ +4.0 ___ +0.2 _ +3.5 _ +0.8 ___ +0.7 _ +6.3 _ +5.9

(7-17) __ (p anom 1-31) ______ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.5

(7-22) _ updates July anom__ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ____ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.5

(7-26) _ updates July anom__ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ____ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ -1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +4.5 _ +2.5

(8-01) _ final anoms __________+2.7 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____-0.4 _+1.5 _ -1.0 _____+0.6 _ +5.6 _ +2.7

 

(17) _ Projections are based on +1 anoms for rest of July in east, central, and +3 to +4 in west.

(22) _ Adjusted ORD, IAH and DEN down.

(26) _ Adjusted IAH and SEA down.

(01) _ Final anomalies posted. Scoring adjusted.

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Seasonal max contest _ scoring update

 

(a) Forecasts

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 

Scotty Lightning __________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____96 __ 104 _ 118 ____ 100 _ 121 __ 92

wxdude64 ________________ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 101 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 104 _ 118 __ 98

Roger Smith _______________102 _ 100 _ 100 ____101 __ 101 _ 109 ____ 104 _ 119 __ 97

rainsucks __________________102 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 104 __ 102 _ 107 ____ 104 _ 120 __99

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 95 ___ 98 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 98

Rhino16 ____________________101 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 102 __ 102 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 115 __ 98

___ Consensus ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 ____99 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 97  

DonSutherland1 ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 96 ___ 97 _ 104 ____ 101 _ 118 __ 97

Tom _______________________ 101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 99 ___102 _ 106 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 96

RJay _______________________100 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 100 __ 101 _ 105 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 95

so_whats_happening ______100 __ 98 __100 ____ 97 ___ 99 _ 102 ______98 _ 119 __ 97

RodneyS ___________________99 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 96 ___ 97 _ 102 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 97

wxallannj __________________98 __ 98 __ 96 _____ 99 ___ 97 _ 102 _____101 _ 120 __ 95

__ max to date (Aug 21) __104 _ 95 __ 98 _____ 97 __ 100 __102 _____102 _ 118 _ 98

 

(b) Errors to date

underlined-italic errors are subject to increase as values so far are above forecast. Sum of "accumulated non-reversible error" appears after error totals.

 

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__ORD_ATL_IAH__DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL ___ Acc n-rev err

Scotty Lightning __________ 1 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 1 __ 4 __16 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 6 ____ 38 ______ 10

wxdude64 ________________ 2 __ 7 __ 4 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 0 __0 ____ 24 _______ 2

Roger Smith ______________ 2 __ 5 __ 2 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 7 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1  ____ 25 _______ 3

rainsucks _________________ 2 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 7 __ 2 __ 5 ___ 2 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 27 _______ 2

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 3 __ 6 __ 1 ____ 2 __ 2 __ 1 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 18 _______ 7

Rhino16 ___________________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 5 __ 2 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 0_____ 25 _______ 8

___ Consensus ___________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1  _____ 20 _______ 6

DonSutherland1 ___________ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 2 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 _____ 16 _______ 9

Tom _______________________ 3 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 2 __ 2 __4 ___ 3 __ 0 __ 2 _____19 _______ 8

RJay_______________________ 4 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 3 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 22 _______ 9

so_whats_happening ______ 4 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 1 _____16 _______ 6

RodneyS ___________________ 5 __ 4 __ 1 ____ 1 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 3 __ 0 __ 1 _____18 ______ 14

wxallannj___________________ 6 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 2 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 1 __ 2 __ 3 _____22 ______ 15

===================================

Scoring will be updated whenever new data require, and table will be moved to Aug and eventually Sep contests.

It appears to be a very close contest so far. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Final scoring for July 2024

based on data in previous post.

 

FORECASTER ________________DCA_NYC_BOS__ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTALS

 

 

Roger Smith__________________82 _ 98 _ 92 __ 272 __ 46 _ 98 _ 46 __ 190 _ 462 _ 66 _ 84 _92 __ 242 ____ 704

so_whats_happening ________ 94 _ 98 _ 84 __ 276 __ 56 _ 94 _ 60 __ 210 _ 486 _ 86 _ 32 _ 68 __ 186 ____ 672

wxallannj ____________________ 98 _ 90 _ 84 __ 272 __ 58 _ 90 _ 48 __ 196 _ 468 _ 68 _ 24 _ 92 __ 184 ____ 652

DonSutherland1 _____________ 86 _ 98 _ 98 __ 282 __ 50 _ 86 _ 60 __ 196 _ 478 _ 82 _ 30 _ 50 __ 162 ____ 640

Scotty Lightning _____________86 _ 98 _ 92 __ 276 __ 42 _ 90 _ 60 __ 192 _ 468 _ 82 _ 34 _ 56 __ 172 ____ 640

___ Consensus _____________ 94 _ 98 _ 98 __ 290 __ 46 _ 90 _ 48 __ 184 _ 474 _ 68 _ 32 _ 62 __ 162 ____ 636

RodneyS _____________________56 _ 78 _ 80 __ 214 __ 94 _ 82 _ 60 __ 236 _ 450 _ 90 _ 14 _ 68 __ 172 ____ 622

wxdude64 ___________________54 _ 64 _ 66 __ 184 __ 98 _ 62 _ 86 __ 246 _ 430 _ 78 _ 26 _ 74 __ 178 ____ 608

George BM ___________________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 _ 42 __ 160 _ 442 _ 98 _ 18 _ 32 __ 148 ____ 590

Tom __________________________98 _ 86 _ 86 __ 270 __ 30 _ 74 _ 32 __ 136 _ 406 _ 66 _ 32 _ 62 __ 160 ____ 566

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 68 _ 84 _ 80 __ 232 __ 44 _ 78 _ 36 __ 158 _ 390 _ 62 _ 40 _ 60 __ 162 ____ 552

___ Normal ___________________46 _ 58 _ 62 __ 166 __ 92 _ 70 _ 80 __ 242 _ 408 _ 88 _ 00 _ 46 __ 134 ____ 542

Stormchaser Chuck _________ 74 _ 86 _ 86 __ 246 __ 22 _ 98 _ 58 __ 178 _ 424 _ 44 _ 06 _ 36 __ 086 ____ 510

RJay _________________________ 80 _ 66 _ 64 __ 210 __ 18 _ 56 _ 10 __ 084 _ 294 _ 42 _ 48 _ 66 __ 156 ____ 450

rainsucks ____________________ 70 _ 56 _ 52 __ 178 ___ 02 _ 64 _ 18 __ 084 _ 262 _ 52 _ 44 _ 54 __ 150 ____ 412

 

__ Persistence (June 2024) __86 _ 80 _ 80 __ 246 __ 26 _ 60 _ 48 __ 134 _ 380 _ 00 _100 _ 26 __ 126 ____ 506

==================

Color coded for high and low forecasts. Normal is lowest for DCA, NYC, BOS and DEN. 

----------------------------

Extreme forecast report

DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL no extreme forecasts

ORD and IAH were wins for wxdude64 with lowest forecasts. 

DEN was a win for George BM with lowest forecast. Counts as a loss for Normal.

PHX and SEA were wins for Roger S with highest forecasts (SEA shared wxallannj).

 

Annual updates to follow ...

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-July 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> 

 

wxallannj _______________ 532 _514 _530 __1576 __ 426 _532 _438 __1396 _2972 __440 _504 _566 _1510 ____ 4482

___ Consensus _________504 _508 _530 __1542 __ 412_498 _446 __ 1356 _2898 __378 _482 _496__1356____4254

rainsucks _______________ 586 _582 _498__1666 __ 383 _466 _428 __1277 _ 2943 __328 _440 _434 _1202____ 4145

DonSutherland1 ________ 492 _536 _550 __1578 __ 420 _446 _404 __1270 _ 2848 __428 _428 _430 __1286____ 4134

so_whats_happening ___ 478 _490 _524 __1492 __ 411 _462 _404 __1277 _ 2769 __ 414 _ 416 _512 __1342 ____ 4111

RJay ____________________540 _537 _478 __1555 __ 404 _475 _372 __ 1251 _ 2806 __364 _475 _443 __1282____ 4088

Scotty Lightning ________489 _435 _455 __1379 __ 290 _519 _475 __1284 _ 2663 __ 389 _433 _507 __1329 ____ 3992

hudsonvalley21 _________470 _434 _456 __1360 __ 398 _490 _460 __1348 _2708 __388 _408 _446 __1242____ 3950

Roger Smith ____________ 440 _428 _344 __1212 __ 440 _539 _408 __1387 _2599 __364 _502 _420 __1286 ____ 3885

Tom ____________________ 460 _446 _472 __1378 __ 332 _456 _410 __1198 _2576 __ 340 _452 _492 __1284 ____ 3860

RodneyS _______________ 324 _444 _474 __1242 __ 289 _ 378 _466 __1133 _ 2375 __470 _362 _532 __1364____ 3739

wxdude64 ______________ 319 _359 _453 __1131 __ 350 _343 _403 __1096 _ 2227 __ 421 _417 _491 __ 1329 ____ 3556

BKViking (6/7) __________436 _432 _450 __1318 __ 291 _389 _333 __1013 _ 2331 __ 316 _ 431 _405 __ 1152 ____ 3483 (4064)

---------------------  

Persistence _____________ 538 _496 _524 __1558 __254 _456 _402 __ 1112 _2670 _ 078 _366 _446 __ 890 ____ 3560

Normal __________________ 270 _272 _368 __ 910 __ 246 _364 _352 __962 _1872 __ 352 _374 _538 __1264 ____ 3136

------------------ 

Stormchaser Chuck (5/7)_256 _300 _320 __876 __252 _242 _240 __734 __1610___ 190 _300 _300 __ 790 ____ 2400 (3360)

Rhino16 (4/7) ____________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ____ 2154 (3770)

George BM (1/7) ___________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 __ 42 __ 160 __ 442 ___ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 _______ 590 (4130)

pro-rated scores for entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal.

Persistence stayed well above Normal but back near last in forecaster group after a relatively poor July. 

-----------------------------------

 

Best forecasts

 

* tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) 

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL 

wxallannj ________________3*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 ______ 1 _May

___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 _____ 0 

rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb 

DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 1^ ___ 2 ____ 3* ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2^____ 0 ______ 0 

so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar 

Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 

hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2^ ___1* ____2 _____ 2 _Apr,Jul 

Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0  

RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan

wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 

BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 

Normal __________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2^____0 ______0 

Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1  ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 1 _ Jun

Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2**__0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 0 

(George BM) _____________0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

July NYC five tied, added to table ^  ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. 

RodneyS also DEN in July 

 

EXTREmE  FORECAST  REPORT 

so far, a total of 35 qualified (28 for warmest, 7 for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1. 

* tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col.

 

FORECASTER _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul __ TOTAL __ adj for ties

rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 __8-2 ___ 8.0 - 1.5

Roger Smith __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0__6-2 ___ 4.5 - 2

Rhino16 ______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0

Scotty Lightning _____________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-0 ___ 4.5 - 0

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 __ 4-0 ___3.0 - 0

wxallannj _____________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0__ 5-1 ___ 3.5 - 1

RodneyS _____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 ___ 3-0 ___ 3.0 - 0

wxdude64 ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 ___ 3-0 ___ 3.0 - 0

DonSutherland1 ______________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 ___ 2-0 ___ 2.0 - 0

Stormchaser Chuck __________0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 2-2 ___ 1.5 - 2.0

___ Normal ___________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 ___ 2-2

RJay _________________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-2

BKViking _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-1

Tom, swh ______________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0

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