June 25 - July 4, 2024 Severe Weather

[Quincy]

An active pattern has returned and should continue for at least a few days across the Plains and surrounding areas. 

Just a really quick post because I’m wrapping up a storm chase, but I’ll add more analysis tonight or first thing in the morning. 

I observed a few tornadoes in Madison County, Nebraska today. The first was a dusty hybrid tornado, while a second was a brief cone and the third was a more well defined, but brief tornado over Kalamazoo, NE:

I’m uploading better resolution video, but here’s a preview from Twitter:

There have been numerous other storms, including a supercell over north-central Oklahoma. I debated on staying local to chase that, but ultimately went for the target that had greater tornado potential. It looks like @andyhbwas on that storm:

 

[andyhb]

Also that very intense (unwarned for a time, yikes) tornado near Whitman Nebraska.

That supercell in N OK was massive, good local chase.

[Quincy]

More video from yesterday's tornado in northeastern Nebraska:

Today’s threat has been largely disrupted by the surging early day MCS. With a ridge over New Mexico and most of the favorable shear displaced to the NE of the region, only isolated pulse or transient supercell storms are anticipated across the Southern Plains.

Tomorrow, a shortwave ejects towards the Northern Rockies with seasonably strong deep layer shear targeting the western Dakotas.. SPC has issued a Day 2 enhanced risk for portions of the northern/central High Plains.

 

[Quincy]

I updated the title to cover threats through the 4th, before the pattern breaks down a bit. 

I chased marginally archers storms in eastern Wyoming yesterday. Nothing too remarkable, although there was a lot of lightning:

Today looks like a localized, conditional tornado threat near the Kansas/Nebraska border. The environment near a warm front across the area  is very favorable for tornadoes. However, as the front lifts northward, residence time of storms along the narrow favorable environment may be limited. This combined with mixed storm modes casts uncertainty. Still, if a storm can thread the needle, you could see a few tornadoes and possibly a significant tornado. 

Tomorrow, SPC has a day 2 enhanced risk from northeastern Kansas into northern Missouri and southern Iowa. The risk is wind-driven, but it’ll be the second day in a row with 5% tornado probabilities across portions of the Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley. 

 

[BYG Jacob]

https://x.com/Mary_reports/status/1808626236450877750

Tornado confirmed in Tucson