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Sunday, June 23, 2024 Convective Thread


weatherwiz
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39 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Perfect depiction of the rte 2 to ASH t-storm dead zone. 

IMG_6789.png

MHT always seems to do better with thunderstorms. Some of the worst storms I've ever experienced have been at Fisher Cat games and baseball games at St Anselm College. I also attended games at Holman Stadium but off the top of my head I don't recall a severe thunderstorm while attending a game there.

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Looking kinda messy up in VT already. Both the Rap and HRRR seem to want to bring strong convection through the Northern half of CT in the 5 to 7pm time frame. Could definitely get interesting. Feeling a bit better about my decision to stay close to home today. 

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19z mesoanalyses:

Still some convective inhibition across New England, but looks like that will erode quickly from west to east. 

Enlarged hodographs in place and increasing low level instability. It’s almost go time!

IMG-1033.jpg

IMG-1031.jpg

IMG-1032.jpg

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Special 18z ALB sounding is actually one of the more impressive ones I can recall, for local climo. Mid level lapse rates are marginal, but that was expected and is limiting this from being a more substantial event:

IMG-1036.jpg

Subjective surface analysis places the warm front in southern NH with slow progress northward:

IMG-1038.jpg

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