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Sunday, June 23, 2024 Convective Thread


weatherwiz
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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s get that one in W CT to long track across state!

Mesoscale analysis shows only the northwest corner of CT is free from MLCIN. That storm should survive at least until it outruns the good air, and possibly even after. 

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Looks like it’s go time now. Storms starting to fire and presentation on radar is looking interesting. New severe thunderstorm warning heading just north of Loudon has a tornado possible tag. 

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7 minutes ago, Skivt2 said:

Honestly all that means is there is some minuscule chance of a tiny bit of rotation in the clouds.  The chance of you even seeing a tornado trying to form up in the clouds over in New England let alone being impacted by one is so small that the change of winning mega millions is probably higher.

I hope you're right, but seeing a Tornado Warning one week after I got up here and then seeing another Tornado Warning in the state the next day is making me worried for sure. I feel cursed.

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s get that one in W CT to long track across state!

Turned into a TOR warning?

WTF

I'm just south of that 'box' = a little distant muffled thunder is all that I've heard from it, but sun came out here.

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1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The three cells in southern New Hamshire are becoming isolated. Should be entertaining. But still think something is missing. They’re not crisp. 

I get what you mean by crisp. Agree on that. 
 

We’ll have to see if the structure improves as the they isolate from the inflow/outflow of the competing cells/line further north.

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I get what you mean by crisp. Agree on that. 
 

We’ll have to see if the structure improves as the they isolate from the inflow/outflow of the competing cells/line further north.

I’m currently watching Moana with my 2 yr old. Didn’t know how else to describe it.  
 

These storms just look like garden variety New England storms. 
 

Real storms have a crisp definition and a lima bean shape. 

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I get what you mean by crisp. Agree on that. 
 

We’ll have to see if the structure improves as the they isolate from the inflow/outflow of the competing cells/line further north.

On vis satellite the structure of the cell heading for Manchester appears to be improving…Getting those overshoots into the stratosphere.

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15 minutes ago, Harmonie said:

I hope you're right, but seeing a Tornado Warning one week after I got up here and then seeing another Tornado Warning in the state the next day is making me worried for sure. I feel cursed.

I’d save your worrying for two things; a devastating ice storm or a devastating hurricane.  Research 1938 for a good idea of what has happened in the last 100 years.  When the big hurricane comes it’s going to lights out for a long time around here.

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4 minutes ago, Skivt2 said:

I’d save your worrying for two things; a devastating ice storm or a devastating hurricane.  Research 1938 for a good idea of what has happened in the last 100 years.  When the big hurricane comes it’s going to lights out for a long time around here.

The natural disaster risk that has increased the most around here in recent years is fresh water flooding. That’s something worth worrying about…

Forget the tornado, worry about the rain that’s coming with the spin-up.

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3 minutes ago, Skivt2 said:

I’d save your worrying for two things; a devastating ice storm or a devastating hurricane.  Research 1938 for a good idea of what has happened in the last 100 years.  When the big hurricane comes it’s going to lights out for a long time around here.

My number one concern coming up here was actually flooding. I would certainly take a hurricane seriously if it was coming up this way. Thankfully those seem pretty rare.

Anyway, looks like there are no active Tornado Warnings right now, that's good news! (hopefully that didn't change by the time I posted this)

I'm watching that cell West/SW of Danbury, hoping that it doesn't explode and turn more eastward, because then I might be in the track of it. D:

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