weatherwiz Posted June 23 Author Share Posted June 23 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea very meh for just about the entire region I still think we'll see 2 or 3 very nasty cells, its just a matter of where they occur and whether anyone going out can get lucky enough to catch em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Well I have a 40 mile view to the SW so will stay right here. Up to 61F brightening skies. Obviously, this pic from our front yard is not from today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Sun is out now and temperatures are responding in kind (up to 77 and rising here). My guess is much ado about nothing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 @weatherwizi def won’t be able to make it super far north today. But if you were in my shoes. Would you a. Go up rt 7 into the great Barrington Pittsfield area? b. Go up 91 into Northampton to take advantage of it being in the CTRV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 There are just way too many modes that result in failure when it comes to high end severe in NE. I mean the last real derecho event was maybe July 1995? Similar to the last hurricane in 1991. May 1998 derecho was in upstate NY mostly. Plus, since the Great Barrington tornado in 1995, the only EF3+ we have had was in 2011. It really seems like high end severe is less common than it used to be around here for whatever reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23 Author Share Posted June 23 6 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said: @weatherwizi def won’t be able to make it super far north today. But if you were in my shoes. Would you a. Go up rt 7 into the great Barrington Pittsfield area? b. Go up 91 into Northampton to take advantage of it being in the CTRV I would go up 91 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23 Author Share Posted June 23 6 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: There are just way too many modes that result in failure when it comes to high end severe in NE. I mean the last real derecho event was maybe July 1995? Similar to the last hurricane in 1991. May 1998 derecho was in upstate NY mostly. Plus, since the Great Barrington tornado in 1995, the only EF3+ we have had was in 2011. It really seems like high end severe is less common than it used to be around here for whatever reason. High-end severe is certainly difficult to obtain here, especially on a widespread scale. It's so difficult to advect an EML into our region and it's even more difficult to time it with an advancing shortwave/front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Most of the 12z CAMs show convection initiating along a trough across central Massachusetts around early to mid afternoon. The HRRR and RRFS are less enthused. The HRRR shows semi discrete storms tracking over NH with this earlier round. The RRFS delays convection across most areas until late afternoon/early evening. It’s really going to be a nail biter I think for southern New England. If there’s slightly better heating or dews run 1-2F higher than HRRR, closer to NAM progs, then you could see a storm or two go up in Massachusetts or northern CT. Otherwise, more widespread convection seems likely during the evening, but with deep shear vectors more parallel to the boundary then, it should be a messy storm mode with bowing segments the predominant storm mode. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 The warm front seems roughly on pace…MA/NH border by 16z on modeling. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23 Author Share Posted June 23 2 minutes ago, Quincy said: Most of the 12z CAMs show convection initiating along a trough across central Massachusetts around early to mid afternoon. The HRRR and RRFS are less enthused. The HRRR shows semi discrete storms tracking over NH with this earlier round. The RRFS delays convection across most areas until late afternoon/early evening. It’s really going to be a nail biter I think for southern New England. If there’s slightly better heating or dews run 1-2F higher than HRRR, closer to NAM progs, then you could see a storm or two go up in Massachusetts or northern CT. Otherwise, more widespread convection seems likely during the evening, but with deep shear vectors more parallel to the boundary then, it should be a messy storm mode with bowing segments the predominant storm mode. I'm really watching those dewpoints because they will certainly factor into development today. Lots of stations into the lower 70's for dews. I still think there may be some dewpoint pooling later and we see dews in the 74-76 range. If those dews can get into S NH and any discrete cell can get going...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Here are the 12z HREF paintball maps with old runs omitted, valid at 21z/5 PM. The first graphic shows the high reflectivity signal, with attempted discrete storms across southern New England. The second graphic shows the stronger UH tracks, mostly confined to NH/VT: 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 A good t storm tutorial for those that want to know more: https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/thunderstorm_stuff/Thunderstorms/thunderstorms.htm#:~:text=The dry air aloft is,a sounding displaying convective instability. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 8 minutes ago, Quincy said: Here are the 12z HREF paintball maps with old runs omitted, valid at 21z/5 PM. The first graphic shows the high reflectivity signal, with attempted discrete storms across southern New England. The second graphic shows the stronger UH tracks, mostly confined to NH/VT: I know dynamics are different yesterday to today, but yesterday We struggled with getting sun to burn off the deck, and hovered 78-80; today sun is out and into the low 80’s and noticeably more humid. Does it mean anything for this afternoon, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Dews are definitely on the juicier side across Connecticut. You don’t want full clearing (unexpected anyway), as that could result in deeper mixing. Most guidance holds dews fairly steady, except to the north, as the warm front lifts. This surface map will auto update hourly: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: maybe some stuff later in the evening/overnight but nothing outside of showers and maybe some thunder Figures :/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Tornado Watch incoming 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1pf Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 76/75 here in the highlands of Holyoke, temp and DP climbing, occasional peeks of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: The warm front seems roughly on pace…MA/NH border by 16z on modeling. Its 85/73 at DDH… that seems warm and juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23 Author Share Posted June 23 2 minutes ago, FXWX said: Tornado Watch incoming LET'S GO!!! making the move to New Hampshire shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Wedge of ass at Winni 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Latest HRRR shows a broken line of storms with the early trough as far south as NW CT at 21z. Could be a damaging day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: LET'S GO!!! making the move to New Hampshire shortly. Get to Concord and reassess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Watching SPC Tornado Parameters (Violent Parameter shown) and SPC SREF products... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 2 minutes ago, Quincy said: Latest HRRR shows a broken line of storms with the early trough as far south as NW CT at 21z. Could be a damaging day Damage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wedge of ass at Winni Yep. Although brighter than it was in Hooksett a couple of hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wedge of ass at Winni Just have another beer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Think the front is through here. Ceilings just lifted over 1,000ft up the mountain rapidly with some clearing and it’s noticeably more humid/warm than it was just a half hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 16 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Damage. I like the southern appendage dangling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSnow Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 I have much to learn from the language you all use here. I'm just hoping that we'll be safe from this stuff ("damage" as you call it?) down here in central Connecticut. That Tornado Warning yesterday was enough for me for a very long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wedge of ass at Winni Lake Wedgesuckee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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