Damage In Tolland Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: i thought yesterday maybe this would be more south but central VT to lakes region on east look good. Should be able to land on time TF Green at 4:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Which of us is in Bridgewater on Newfound Lake? Feel like that area is a magnet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23 Author Share Posted June 23 May have to end up going a bit farther north into New Hampshire. Have to look deeper into stuff but looks like storm mode is going to be super messy. Also looking like a bit later for timing (not a bad thing). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Not chasing on purpose, but heading up to Loudon this morning. Hopefully things stay further north until after 6:00pm, but latest HRRR run cuts it close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Not chasing on purpose, but heading up to Loudon this morning. Hopefully things stay further north until after 6:00pm, but latest HRRR run cuts it close.Heading up for the Cup race huh?Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 I'm chucking a few on the Today Show this morning at 8 a.m. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I'm chucking a few on the Today Show this morning at 8 a.m. First time? That’s awesome, good luck. You’ll crush it. 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: May have to end up going a bit farther north into New Hampshire. Have to look deeper into stuff but looks like storm mode is going to be super messy. Also looking like a bit later for timing (not a bad thing). I’m honestly not sure what I’ll do. I see the cap further south on the soundings, but I also wonder if that opens the door to perhaps less widespread storms but a couple of big storms that have enough to break the cap. I also hate chasing in New England. Not fond of the terrain or road network. Not a lot of ways to get into good position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 37 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Which of us is in Bridgewater on Newfound Lake? Feel like that area is a magnet. That is me. Currently 58 Thunderstorm in progress .55" overnight https://www.bridgewaternhweather.com/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23 Author Share Posted June 23 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: First time? That’s awesome, good luck. You’ll crush it. I’m honestly not sure what I’ll do. I see the cap further south on the soundings, but I also wonder if that opens the door to perhaps less widespread storms but a couple of big storms that have enough to break the cap. I also hate chasing in New England. Not fond of the terrain or road network. Not a lot of ways to get into good position. Yeah chasing here sucks. You can’t even really chase. I know I call it chasing but I don’t really chase. What I just try to do is pick an area which looks to be a decent spot before hand and then look on google maps for any like open fields, golf courses, etc. in the vicinity. Then get there a few hours before hand. I always prefer northern CT being in the game because BDL is great for views. I tend though not to go after stuff as it’s ongoing. Too much traffic, if you are in areas with lots of trees blocked roads become a concern, and getting caught in the torrential downpours driving can be dicey. Difficult to see and the way people drive…always afraid of getting rear ended 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Are these storms going to fire up all day, or do we clear out this am and for the afternoon storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 It's going to have to clear out soon if we want to see anything today 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah chasing here sucks. You can’t even really chase. I know I call it chasing but I don’t really chase. What I just try to do is pick an area which looks to be a decent spot before hand and then look on google maps for any like open fields, golf courses, etc. in the vicinity. Then get there a few hours before hand. I always prefer northern CT being in the game because BDL is great for views. I tend though not to go after stuff as it’s ongoing. Too much traffic, if you are in areas with lots of trees blocked roads become a concern, and getting caught in the torrential downpours driving can be dicey. Difficult to see and the way people drive…always afraid of getting rear ended How do we look here south of the pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: It's going to have to clear out soon if we want to see anything today The warm front will slowly push north all day. It’s fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 1 minute ago, dendrite said: The warm front will slowly push north all day. It’s fine. Hard to believe we're going to see any significant sun though to get things really firing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 1 minute ago, NoCORH4L said: Hard to believe we're going to see any significant sun though to get things really firing I think after 4 is our best shot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 If there’s a fail mode down here in CT it’s the cap, not how much instability we build imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23 Author Share Posted June 23 27 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: How do we look here south of the pike? I don't think there is going to be much activity but there may be a window between like 5-8 PM for activity to develop across western CT as there is some shortwave energy approaching. Showers may start popping during the afternoon but they will struggle to intensify given the capping and weak forcing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't think there is going to be much activity but there may be a window between like 5-8 PM for activity to develop across western CT as there is some shortwave energy approaching. Showers may start popping during the afternoon but they will struggle to intensify given the capping and weak forcing. Kind of interesting that the guidance went from more widespread activity to more isolated stuff between the 00z and 06z suites. I do wonder how strong the cap will be in actuality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Definitely need some warming to erode the cap, especially in southern New England. That’s probably why CAMs have backed off on earlier activity. Satellite shows clouds socked in across most of New England, with some breaks in NY and around the Berkshires. 12z ALB sounding shows enlarged low level hodographs, but weak lapse rates and some messiness with the upper level wind profile too. Assuming there are cloud breaks, there’s still the potential for a conditionally favorable environment around central Mass, otherwise there’s a higher probability for storms up in NH/VT. Not sure much if anything will be triggered early with subtle forcing. Unless you can get some daytime heating and erode the CAP. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 It’s quite possible most of SNE doesn’t see any storms today unless way up on VT/ NH border. Hi res has that look. When Scooter says wagons way north he means it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23 Author Share Posted June 23 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Kind of interesting that the guidance went from more widespread activity to more isolated stuff between the 00z and 06z suites. I do wonder how strong the cap will be in actuality. Was just looking at the 12z balloon launches from Albany (and even Upton) and there is an evident cap in place. The better forcing and height falls during the day will be northern and central New England and that should be enough to break any capping up there. South into Mass and CT I don't think the cap breaks. Seems too strong to me and by the time it may break with that approaching shortwave the best dynamics may be lifting out. I'm not even sure if there will be much activity across Mass. But anyone in Mass and CT should definitely not let their guard down. All it takes is for one cell to get going and develop a mature enough updraft and it will have plenty to CAPE/shear to utilize. WE'll have to watch the progression of the warm front too. It seems the trend has been to lift the warm front north and east a bit more quickly. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Was just looking at the 12z balloon launches from Albany (and even Upton) and there is an evident cap in place. The better forcing and height falls during the day will be northern and central New England and that should be enough to break any capping up there. South into Mass and CT I don't think the cap breaks. Seems too strong to me and by the time it may break with that approaching shortwave the best dynamics may be lifting out. I'm not even sure if there will be much activity across Mass. But anyone in Mass and CT should definitely not let their guard down. All it takes is for one cell to get going and develop a mature enough updraft and it will have plenty to CAPE/shear to utilize. WE'll have to watch the progression of the warm front too. It seems the trend has been to lift the warm front north and east a bit more quickly. Seems like a classic tough severe forecast day down here lol. Like you said, even if we’re mostly capped it only takes one to break through to get things real interesting. Tricky messaging for a CT audience. 12 minutes ago, Quincy said: Definitely need some warming to erode the cap, especially in southern New England. That’s probably why CAMs have backed off on earlier activity. Satellite shows clouds socked in across most of New England, with some breaks in NY and around the Berkshires. 12z ALB sounding shows enlarged low level hodographs, but weak lapse rates and some messiness with the upper level wind profile too. Assuming there are cloud breaks, there’s still the potential for a conditionally favorable environment around central Mass, otherwise there’s a higher probability for storms up in NH/VT. Not sure much if anything will be triggered early with subtle forcing. Unless you can get some daytime heating and erode the CAP. As always, really helpful and informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 15 minutes ago, Quincy said: Definitely need some warming to erode the cap, especially in southern New England. That’s probably why CAMs have backed off on earlier activity. Satellite shows clouds socked in across most of New England, with some breaks in NY and around the Berkshires. 12z ALB sounding shows enlarged low level hodographs, but weak lapse rates and some messiness with the upper level wind profile too. Assuming there are cloud breaks, there’s still the potential for a conditionally favorable environment around central Mass, otherwise there’s a higher probability for storms up in NH/VT. Not sure much if anything will be triggered early with subtle forcing. Unless you can get some daytime heating and erode the CAP. Getting brighter here in E CT compared to yesterday not getting sun until afternoon and a decent breeze at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s quite possible most of SNE doesn’t see any storms today unless way up on VT/ NH border. Hi res has that look. When Scooter says wagons way north he means it. Yeah, already moved on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah, already moved on Wednesday night be better in SNE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23 Author Share Posted June 23 12z NAM sounding within southwest NH for 21z today. Can still see some capping. llvl shear certainly pretty strong though as is instability 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wednesday night be better in SNE Yeah looks wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 At the Hooksett plaza and nothing screams severe like 65* and sheet drizzle... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 5 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said: At the Hooksett plaza and nothing screams severe like 65* and sheet drizzle... Go inside. Get yourself some well priced liquor. Pound some shots down in the NHMS parking lot. And enjoy a PDS one way or another. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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