Terpeast Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: After getting burned for several years, I'm paying more attention to the pacific jet and the PDO. While it's just August, I'm happy to see this pool of warmer waters off the Inside Passage. Hopefully this persists and gets the east coast a few chances for snow this winter. Yeah, i see a warm blob moving east from that marine heatwave into the GoA / west NA coast. Winter 24-25 looks ugly af but would be happy to get a 1-2 week period of wintry weather in either Jan or Feb, most likely Jan. Feb will probably torch 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 23 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, i see a warm blob moving east from that marine heatwave into the GoA / west NA coast. Winter 24-25 looks ugly af but would be happy to get a 1-2 week period of wintry weather in either Jan or Feb, most likely Jan. Feb will probably torch I just want snow. I don't think I can deal with another winter of 65 and bad air quality on Christmas. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Every year, we gather in the fall to throw darts at the winter. This is entertaining and somewhat hilarious Other than a trivial distraction, interest is limited. Real Deal analogs are based on historical data............... I will provide some of this before Nov. 1....... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 So I believe we’ll have another below normal season. Question is though will we have another 19-20 or 22-23 where the metros fail to get even an inch? Maybe we’ll luck out and get like 3-4” in the metro for the season. Let’s be real, our next shot at a huge snowstorm is 26-27 since Niñas tend to happen back to back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So I believe we’ll have another below normal season. Question is though will we have another 19-20 or 22-23 where the metros fail to get even an inch? Maybe we’ll luck out and get like 3-4” in the metro for the season. Let’s be real, our next shot at a huge snowstorm is 26-27 since Niñas tend to happen back to back. If it were November and the atmosphere/sst patterns look similar to today, I’d give it a 60% chance of a shutout and a 40% chance of eeking out an advisory/low-end warning event (of which we had 2 last January) during a brief -epo period. Beating climo? Fuggedaboutit. Too soon though. We’ll see how the tropical season pans out and how the MJO behaves in October. Either way, the upslope regions (Deep creek, snowshoe, etc) should have better winters than last year and even the year before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 With the Niña looking fairly weak, that gives me more tempered optimism than I had a few months ago. PDO looks about as bad as can be though…I think we probably get a 1-2 week wintry period at some point. Hopefully we can maximize it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: With the Niña looking fairly weak, that gives me more tempered optimism than I had a few months ago. PDO looks about as bad as can be though…I think we probably get a 1-2 week wintry period at some point. Hopefully we can maximize it. This here. To me, this is the reason enso doesn't matter much to getting better snow chances...until this changes (if it does) there's no point in tracking, no point expecting anything more than what we've gotten in any year since 2016...just plug in a year and you'll get it right, lol Feels like there's nothing left to learn (I mean we've seen the worst with 0.2 inches) and that we've seen everything our winters can (or can't) be since then! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 8 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So I believe we’ll have another below normal season. Question is though will we have another 19-20 or 22-23 where the metros fail to get even an inch? Maybe we’ll luck out and get like 3-4” in the metro for the season. Let’s be real, our next shot at a huge snowstorm is 26-27 since Niñas tend to happen back to back. Wennie hope: Well, if the PDO is a decadal cycle and that would be 10 years...maybe then? (at least it would be worth watching since we don't know if a +PDO period still works or not) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 19 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wennie hope: Well, if the PDO is a decadal cycle and that would be 10 years...maybe then? (at least it would be worth watching since we don't know if a +PDO period still works or not) When did the PDO go negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 18 Author Share Posted August 18 20 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wennie hope: Well, if the PDO is a decadal cycle and that would be 10 years...maybe then? (at least it would be worth watching since we don't know if a +PDO period still works or not) Decadal- i.e. decadal scale. It is often multiple decades. Doesn't mean the phase shifts every 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 One might argue that the PDO went negative after the 1998 super nino, and stayed mostly negative except for a few years here and there. Or it could also be argued that it went negative after the 2016 super nino with a special flavor being the Japan marine heat wave. Depends on how you want to slice it… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 On 8/18/2024 at 4:24 PM, Terpeast said: One might argue that the PDO went negative after the 1998 super nino, and stayed mostly negative except for a few years here and there. Or it could also be argued that it went negative after the 2016 super nino with a special flavor being the Japan marine heat wave. Depends on how you want to slice it… I think on a grander, multi decadal scale, it shifted in the late 90s.....if you go back throughout history, you are never going to find a stretch where it is exclusively either positive or negative for 30 years or so...one phase will be prevalent throughout a given period. I consider this negative phase as having began after the 1997 super el nino with a couple of periods of positive PDO mixed in amidst a sea of negatve. The last + multidecadal period was from about 1975-1998....Its been negative from 1998-2024. Its going to flip later this decade. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Our best winters seem to coincide with a +PDO. Until that changes, embrace the suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/ar-AA1pcupU Get your ice skates sharpened up, we'll be skating in the bay this winter. You heard it here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 28 minutes ago, IronTy said: https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/ar-AA1pcupU Get your ice skates sharpened up, we'll be skating in the bay this winter. You heard it here first. Hudson Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hudson Bay? It's lowering at an EXPONENTIAL rate. Even Skynet could only learn at a geometric rate. Amateurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 On 8/18/2024 at 4:24 PM, Terpeast said: One might argue that the PDO went negative after the 1998 super nino, and stayed mostly negative except for a few years here and there. Or it could also be argued that it went negative after the 2016 super nino with a special flavor being the Japan marine heat wave. Depends on how you want to slice it… I lean towards the latter, the 2016 marine heatwave. Heck, even a neutral PDO would be better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I lean towards the latter, the 2016 marine heatwave. Heck, even a neutral PDO would be better for us. 2009-10 was a neutral PDO on average after a long duration -PDO, fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 12 hours ago, IronTy said: https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/ar-AA1pcupU Get your ice skates sharpened up, we'll be skating in the bay this winter. You heard it here first. "No one can figure out why the Atlantic Ocean is cooling at record speed" Ummm...that's easy. The volcanoes are no longer active. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 16 minutes ago, mattie g said: "No one can figure out why the Atlantic Ocean is cooling at record speed" Ummm...that's easy. The volcanoes are no longer active. Saw a movie about this once.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 34 minutes ago, mattie g said: "No one can figure out why the Atlantic Ocean is cooling at record speed" Ummm...that's easy. The volcanoes are no longer active. Obviously nobody asked JB, he already posted that a day or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 Lock in the WB CFSV2 control. January to remember.... 2 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 31 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Lock in the WB CFSV2 control. January to remember.... WeatherBell CFS maps are wrong. Apparently it has algorithm issues. @GaWx has been harping on this for months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 37 minutes ago, Terpeast said: WeatherBell CFS maps are wrong. Apparently it has algorithm issues. @GaWx has been harping on this for months. I choose to ignore this reality 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 50 minutes ago, Terpeast said: WeatherBell CFS maps are wrong. Apparently it has algorithm issues. @GaWx has been harping on this for months. Thanks for pointing this out. By the way, note that same warm anom spot that’s on most of the WB CFS over N Mich/N L Mich (+1C) while just 200 mi S (where it is almost always much colder on these WB CFS) it is -7C. So, a whopping 8C difference! And then note the cold to the N of the warm spot. Like clockwork. Keep in mind that the bogus map is merely a control run. To compare, here’s a much more believable Jan CFS map from TT, the avg of the last 12 runs: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 3 hours ago, GaWx said: Thanks for pointing this out. By the way, note that same warm anom spot that’s on most of the WB CFS over N Mich/N L Mich (+1C) while just 200 mi S (where it is almost always much colder on these WB CFS) it is -7C. So, a whopping 8C difference! And then note the cold to the N of the warm spot. Like clockwork. Keep in mind that the bogus map is merely a control run. To compare, here’s a much more believable Jan CFS map from TT, the avg of the last 12 runs: If Harris wins I might attend her inauguration. I’m willing to bet that I won’t even need a jacket that day, or at the very most I’d need a windbreaker. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 On 8/17/2024 at 6:46 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Wennie hope: Well, if the PDO is a decadal cycle and that would be 10 years...maybe then? (at least it would be worth watching since we don't know if a +PDO period still works or not) PDO should start to flip late this decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 On 8/12/2024 at 11:53 AM, Eskimo Joe said: After getting burned for several years, I'm paying more attention to the pacific jet and the PDO. While it's just August, I'm happy to see this pool of warmer waters off the Inside Passage. Hopefully this persists and gets the east coast a few chances for snow this winter. Part of me thinks everyone is going to call for a rinse & repeat outlook of the past few years, only to miss something and it ends up decent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 On 8/23/2024 at 9:31 PM, MN Transplant said: I choose to ignore this reality Love the full transparency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Part of me thinks everyone is going to call for a rinse & repeat outlook of the past few years, only to miss something and it ends up decent. From your mouth to the snow gods ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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