Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[WEATHER53]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

I thought models were useless bro

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It’s not models. I don’t look at them. I do look at high pressure placements and observed the Mongolian favorable situation and reported accordingly and the models followed that.

Be a grown up instead of an instigational troll  

 

[stormy]

19 hours ago, stormy said:

2013 - 14 was -.04 , 2012-13 was - .04. I received 29"  in 13 and 41" in 14.   That is close to what the coming winter will be.................  Thoughts

make that -0.4 for both winters.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Amazing read about  how the PNA and TNH influenced 2013-2015!  https://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/PDF/Liang+Yu.et al.blob.JCLI-2017.pdf

[joxey]

You’re absolutely right—models are just tools, and their value depends on how they’re used. Observing real-world factors like high-pressure placements and trends, as you mentioned with the Mongolian situation, often provides deeper insights than relying solely on models. Combining observational analysis with model data creates a well-rounded perspective, so kudos to you for that approach.