Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[Terpeast]

I’m a little more optimistic than the worst case scenarios, more like 7-10” for DC and west, 4-7” SE (similar to Don S’s thoughts). Could really happen in one storm and then that’s all she wrote. 

Could also be a <4” shutout but I think this season will have a surprise curveball or two for us. 

[winter_warlock]

21 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I’m a little more optimistic than the worst case scenarios, more like 7-10” for DC and west, 4-7” SE (similar to Don S’s thoughts). Could really happen in one storm and then that’s all she wrote. 

Could also be a <4” shutout but I think this season will have a surprise curveball or two for us. 

 I think it will be a normal winter  for most. Not too far from the normal snowfall  for most.  Maybe a little less but nothing like the snowless winter we had a couple years ago.  But.  Winter predictions. Almost never pan out lol always a wait and see.  It's hard enough for modeling to predict a week out , let alone 3 months!!! Lol

[Deck Pic]

On 11/13/2024 at 7:04 AM, WxUSAF said:

CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. 

I was really tempted to just say it would be a hot winter lol and present no data.  But I guess Jason wanted something more

I use analogs pretty loosely.  I will say they were grouped very close together for Feb.  All 4 were below normal vs 91-2020 norms. Feb 2006 would be a -1.4 today but it was slightly above norm at the time.  So I'm curious if I stumbled on to something there. 

as far as snow, maybe bullish vs conventional wisdom?  

I think I referenced 2018-19 (19" imby) and 2021-22 (15" imby) as benchmarks.   It's not like we have to go back to the pleistocine era to find a half decent above median winter.  Of course it could totally shit the bed and not a single person would be surprised lol, but doesn't look like a total dud to me

[Deck Pic]

On 11/15/2024 at 4:28 PM, Terpeast said:

I’m a little more optimistic than the worst case scenarios, more like 7-10” for DC and west, 4-7” SE (similar to Don S’s thoughts). Could really happen in one storm and then that’s all she wrote. 

Could also be a <4” shutout but I think this season will have a surprise curveball or two for us. 

persistence seasonal forecasting isn't the worst way for us lol.  It pretty much works every summer to ignore all data and just go above normal.  

But I think sometimes we all forget it can snow here.  I thought the back to back 4"ers in January were pretty cool. We just need to be able to be generate one other snowy period.  A couple 1-3" events for me and one 4-8" and all the sudden I'm nearing a 20" winter.  And you quite a bit more.  getting a december snow would be nice, but it's just too elusive these days to expect anything