Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[Terpeast]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I will put my full bias on the table...2009 is my top analog and it was by far my least favorite winter EVER.  Because it was generally cold for long stretches, at least a cold enough pattern to snow...and it did snow a decent amount just to our north, so I was tracking and invested and watching every freaking wave, and almost nothing came of any of them.  Yea I got slightly more snow that winter than a few others (but other than a bunch of 1" evens it was all from one March storm), but those years the pattern was no hope awful and I just checked out, 2009 was the biggest waste of my time for little return of any winter.  

2008-09 is indeed one of my analogs for this winter. Even with all the brouhaha over the upcoming pattern and the stalling “nina”, my thoughts about this winter haven’t changed. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

2008-09 is indeed one of my analogs for this winter. Even with all the brouhaha over the upcoming pattern and the stalling “nina”, my thoughts about this winter haven’t changed. 

I see the reason for the hype, there are some similarities to 2013/14 and the pattern looks fairly good coming up. The problem is that the same can be said of most of the other analogs that didn’t lead to much snow.   Look at the patter late November in 2008. Perfect march also.  This type of pattern has only ever really worked in a cold enso or neutral season once.  Since we don’t have reliable records far ending back I can’t say if it was a 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 type fluke but I can say it was an outlier result and not one I’d want to bet on repeating in any one given similar season. The more likely outcome is the less exciting one unfortunately. But y’all know I’m rooting for it. I didn’t see 2014 coming either. 

[notvirga!]

Was 08-09 the infamous “40 north winter” where a lot of stuff looked good but only ended up up being decent for those north of 40 degree latitude? 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2009 would be almost identical to last year overall for D.C.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

2009 would be almost identical to last year overall for D.C.

I’d argue last year was better. A good week of winter. 2009 almost all the snow fell in one March storm and melted the next day. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, notvirga! said:

Was 08-09 the infamous “40 north winter” where a lot of stuff looked good but only ended up up being decent for those north of 40 degree latitude? 

That’s almost every “cold” Nina. 

[psuhoffman]

Seriously that could be describing like 10 years in the last 20 and most were cold neutral or Nina years. But I know 2009 there was a sharp gradient near 40 where snow went from way below to near and slightly above normal. It wasn’t amazing to our north. Philly had 23” which is slightly above avg. NYC had 27” also a little above avg.  There were no major storms but several minor to moderate events went just to our north during several cold periods in Dec-Feb. We got all our snow from one storm early March. 

[Ji]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Seriously that could be describing like 10 years in the last 20 and most were cold neutral or Nina years. But I know 2009 there was a sharp gradient near 40 where snow went from way below to near and slightly above normal. It wasn’t amazing to our north. Philly had 23” which is slightly above avg. NYC had 27” also a little above avg.  There were no major storms but several minor to moderate events went just to our north during several cold periods in Dec-Feb. We got all our snow from one storm early March. 

maybe we will have one of those head scratching winters that dont make any sense but we take

[winter_warlock]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

maybe we will have one of those head scratching winters that dont make any sense but we take

After the last few winters we've had ill take it lol

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Ji said:

maybe we will have one of those head scratching winters that dont make any sense but we take

It’s possible. At this time in 2013 I didn’t expect what was about to happen. I was expecting another 2008-9 type year then also. It definitely happens sometimes. But it’s not something I bet on. A lot of forecasting is just playing probability 

[CAPE]

 

[cbmclean]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

 

Great, another index to obsess over.

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, CAPE said:

 

I do think this means something...it's hinting that this is likely to be the colder variety (northward displaced ridge) version of a "cold enso" season.  And with that in mind I might revise my final snowfall forecast this week upwards, a smidge.  Because I might pull out some of the warmer complete ratter analogs that were still within my set previously, I really don't think that is how this winter is going now.  But I don't think it necessarily means a 2014 repeat either, and I don't plan to include that year in my calculations since as I've stated its an outlier even among other similar seasons with a similar pattern.  It just went to an extreme we don't often see.  So this is definitely "good" and sure it opens the door to the slim possibility that some crazy extreme outcome like 2014 could happen, but the most realistic take imo is that this winter is likely a "colder" variety of nina, more in line with seasons like 2009, 2018, 2022 where there are legit periods of cold and snow chances, than a 2012 or 2023 type total dud.  But its important to keep in mind that even the colder nina or cold neutral types while definitely preferable to the warmer flat pac ridge ones...can be frustrating wrt to snowfall also since they usually still feature a fast NS that often disrupts the ability for southern waves to amplify and get to our latitude and those NS waves stay to our north.  

[Jebman]

Cold Neutral Patterns in the Mid Atlantic can yield opportunities and sometimes you guys can maximize the snow. I now think many of you will end up with slightly above normal snow tallies by April 2025.

[psuhoffman]

Finally got my full winter forecast up, I did make some minor changes based on new information 

 

[Terpeast]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Finally got my full winter forecast up, I did make some minor changes based on new information 

 

Nice work. I’m on the same page. It’s tempting to say something like the winter pattern remembers the late Nov pattern, but I don’t think we see another 2013-14. I also think the chance of a total ratter has gone down a bit. 

[jayyy]

Possibility of highs in the mid 30s around day 10. Nice to see some cold weather at least in December. Now let’s get some precipitation in the area!

[Jebman]

I really am starting to feel deep in my bones, that the Mid Atlantic will maximize opportunities this winter for snow, and Bob Chill will have to stack up a lot of Faces. Might have to set up a 12 inch wide Face that takes up an entire post lmao.

[anotherman]

I really am starting to feel deep in my bones, that the Mid Atlantic will maximize opportunities this winter for snow, and Bob Chill will have to stack up a lot of Faces. Might have to set up a 12 inch wide Face that takes up an entire post lmao.

[stormy]

On 11/24/2024 at 2:17 AM, psuhoffman said:

Finally got my full winter forecast up, I did make some minor changes based on new information 

 

2013 - 14 was -.04 , 2012-13 was - .04. I received 29"  in 13 and 41" in 14.   That is close to what the coming winter will be.................  Thoughts

[WEATHER53]

I didn’t expect much but more favorable elements starting showing up 10-15 days ago 

[Ji]

I didn’t expect much but more favorable elements starting showing up 10-15 days ago 

I thought models were useless bro

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[WEATHER53]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

I thought models were useless bro

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

It’s not models. I don’t look at them. I do look at high pressure placements and observed the Mongolian favorable situation and reported accordingly and the models followed that.

Be a grown up instead of an instigational troll  

 

[stormy]

19 hours ago, stormy said:

2013 - 14 was -.04 , 2012-13 was - .04. I received 29"  in 13 and 41" in 14.   That is close to what the coming winter will be.................  Thoughts

make that -0.4 for both winters.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Amazing read about  how the PNA and TNH influenced 2013-2015!  https://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/PDF/Liang+Yu.et al.blob.JCLI-2017.pdf

[joxey]

You’re absolutely right—models are just tools, and their value depends on how they’re used. Observing real-world factors like high-pressure placements and trends, as you mentioned with the Mongolian situation, often provides deeper insights than relying solely on models. Combining observational analysis with model data creates a well-rounded perspective, so kudos to you for that approach.