Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[scope1]

On 11/11/2024 at 6:56 PM, 87storms said:

Kammerer went a little below average, but respectable snow totals for a La Niña.

He hit the nail on the head winter 22-23 he predicted pretty much a shutout and that’s exactly what happened. 

[WEATHER53]

7 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Considering enso, climo, and recent pac jet history... oh boy is it easy to jump to doomclusions lol. I never really felt that this fall. Just gut stuff but I've watched enough unfold over the last 20 years to trust my intuition algorithm. Now that we're deep into fall, my conscious mind likes what it sees. 

Like I said some weeks back, my gut is yelling that this winter will have its highlights that will put it ahead of the last couple years. Warm periods will almost certainly include some form of an annoying SER. But i really doubt it will be a statue. HL blocking has been flexing on and off quite a bit last few months. No reason to think that goes poof.... yet.... lol

I agree it will be a bit better than last year which was better than year before 

it’s going to be two days normal, 3-4 days above to well above, 2 very cold and quickly back to normal for day 3. 

[brooklynwx99]

 

[Chris78]

15 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. 

21 to 42 inches for the far western burbs lol. I'd be tickled with that.

Seems very very bullish.

[Roger Smith]

I posted in NYC discussion that a similar dry spell (to 2024) in Oct-Nov 1924 was followed by a winter where almost all the snow (93%) fell in Jan which had a few severe cold spells (record low Jan 28) and that Feb 1925 was mild. 

Anyway, my winter forecast is along similar lines to discussion above, mixed temperatures, storm track often a bit north of this region, but wit variations so some opportunities for snow. I have predicted 13 to 19 inches at local airports in contest, and 6.5" RIC. 

It may be a gangbusters winter for parts of central plains, midwest, lower lakes and inland n.e., so when that happens this region is not likely to be shut out entirely. 

 

[stormy]

The CPC drops from 71% in September to 57% now regarding a La Nina dominated winter.

[CAPE]

Just a reminder- weak La Ninas historically almost always feature below average snowfall for the MA. Seems a weak event is most likely at this juncture.

[87storms]

On 11/13/2024 at 4:56 PM, scope1 said:

He hit the nail on the head winter 22-23 he predicted pretty much a shutout and that’s exactly what happened. 

Yea, that was a legendary forecast. I have a difficult time envisioning much snowfall this year given the pattern leading in, but it’s also not that difficult to hit average here, so who knows.

[CAPE]

Long term avg snowfall here is 18.5. I never expect that(anymore), although exceeded it in 2022- right around 20". So it is still possible.

10-15" would be a really good outcome for my yard this winter given what we know going in(probably a weak event, solar, QBO) and gleaning some hints from the long range/seasonal guidance. Wildcard imo is a favorable EPO/WPO for an extended period. A little over 10" was it for the super awesome el Nino of last winter lol. Nina winters have generally yielded more snow here since 2015.

[psuhoffman]

I've been super swamped with work and still am, I will try to do a full write up soon...but since I don't have time right now I figured I would at least share my top analogs.  I set up the criteria a while ago and have been updating the data as it comes in month to month.  This is probably the last update so these are it.

Top analogs

1:2012-13   

2:2001-02     

3:2022-23

4:2008-09

5: 2020-21

Adjusted weighted predicted snowfall 

BWI: 5.9"

IAD: 6.9"

DCA: 3.7"

Quick thoughts... I set up the parameters I will use to identify analogs and the methodology to weight snowfall months ahead of time to avoid any bias. After last years utter failure I did revamp my process some and did historical testing to verify the new methodology is sound.  It was better but as is any long range predictive process it's not perfect.  Mainly because using the data available in the fall is not always indicative since things can flip quickly sometimes.  For example:  if the PDO were to start going through a larger scale phase switch in the next month or two it would bring 2014 into play as a possible analog.  I don't see that right now though.   I hope I am as wrong this year as I was last!  

[CAPE]

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I've been super swamped with work and still am, I will try to do a full write up soon...but since I don't have time right now I figured I would at least share my top analogs.  I set up the criteria a while ago and have been updating the data as it comes in month to month.  This is probably the last update so these are it.

Top analogs

1:2012-13   

2:2001-02     

3:2022-23

4:2008-09

5: 2020-21

Adjusted weighted predicted snowfall 

BWI: 5.9"

IAD: 6.9"

DCA: 3.7"

Quick thoughts... I set up the parameters I will use to identify analogs and the methodology to weight snowfall months ahead of time to avoid any bias. After last years utter failure I did revamp my process some and did historical testing to verify the new methodology is sound.  It was better but as is any long range predictive process it's not perfect.  Mainly because using the data available in the fall is not always indicative since things can flip quickly sometimes.  For example:  if the PDO were to start going through a larger scale phase switch in the next month or two it would bring 2014 into play as a possible analog.  I don't see that right now though.   I hope I am as wrong this year as I was last!  

Hard to argue the predicted snowfall tallies, but the PDO has been hostile for awhile, and we have managed several decent snowfall winters in that timeframe. The bigger issue to me is weak Ninas consistently produce below normal snowfall in our region. I think all of them have for the DC area.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I just can’t see us ever getting 2013/14 again; I would argue that was far more rare than even 2009/10. 

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Hard to argue the predicted snowfall tallies, but the PDO has been hostile for awhile, and we have managed several decent snowfall winters in that timeframe. The bigger issue to me is weak Ninas consistently produce below normal snowfall in our region. I think all of them have for the DC area.

Yeah, I found that one out when I used to live there. 

It is why I have been predicting average snow tallies from my armchair weather weenie service lol.

[bncho]

7 hours ago, stormy said:

The CPC drops from 71% in September to 57% now regarding a La Nina dominated winter.

2024-2025 La Nina ❌
2024-2025 Cold-Neutral✅

[Jebman]

31 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I just can’t see us ever getting 2013/14 again; I would argue that was far more rare than even 2009/10. 

Getting another 2013-14 in the Washington Metro Region would be like winning 3.7 billion in the Mega Millions.

[87storms]

I just can’t see us ever getting 2013/14 again; I would argue that was far more rare than even 2009/10. 

2013-15 was uncommon, that’s for sure.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Hard to argue the predicted snowfall tallies, but the PDO has been hostile for awhile, and we have managed several decent snowfall winters in that timeframe. The bigger issue to me is weak Ninas consistently produce below normal snowfall in our region. I think all of them have for the DC area.

2022 but the QBO was opposite that year. Also pattern analysis would indicate we might have got lucky some that year. There was a rather small snow max wrt mean right over some parts of our area.  We totally maxed out potential, ate all the meat off that bone, and it was still below avg across most of the area  

But the strength of the Nina and the QBO make that a bad analog anyways.  2018 was really before the PDO went super negative.  We got a little unlucky that we got 3 relatively meh snowfall years 2017-2019 right before we entered a historically awful PDO cycle that slammed the door on our chances of a big snowfall winter for a while.  The past few examples of similar PDO patterns were bookended by some blockbuster winters.  This time we entered a bad phase already in a snow drought.  That’s some bad luck maybe.  
 

But I could be wrong about how I identified analog years.  

 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I just can’t see us ever getting 2013/14 again; I would argue that was far more rare than even 2009/10. 

Something similar to that pattern is probably our best chance to get enough cold to end up with normal / above normal snow this winter.

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Something similar to that pattern is probably our best chance to get enough cold to end up with normal / above normal snow this winter.

I think we do see some periods similar. Some of my analogs features some colder periods. 2009 and 2013. But I doubt it locks in all winter like 2014. Also, most comparable patterns to 2014 don’t go as well to the same extreme. That’s another year where we outperformed the pattern some imo. 

[stormy]

18 hours ago, CAPE said:

Hard to argue the predicted snowfall tallies, but the PDO has been hostile for awhile, and we have managed several decent snowfall winters in that timeframe. The bigger issue to me is weak Ninas consistently produce below normal snowfall in our region. I think all of them have for the DC area.

As I posted a few weeks ago.   All weak Nina's have produced below normal snow for my area back to 1950 except 1964 - 65 which was .50" above normal with 24.50".

[psuhoffman]

Don Sutherland said in his winter outlook that 2016-17 was a best case most snowy possible outcome and  2002 as one of his "less snowy" options.  For the record DC had 3.2" in 2002 and 3.4" in 2017.  

[IronTy]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don Sutherland said in his winter outlook that 2016-17 was a best case most snowy possible outcome and  2002 as one of his "less snowy" options.  For the record DC had 3.2" in 2002 and 3.4" in 2017.  

He died like 5mo ago...his opinion doesn't count.  

[ldub23]

If the CFS  is right DC will have 10 inches  of  snow  by  Dec 10

[Daniel Boone]

7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

He died like 5mo ago...his opinion doesn't count.  

I like him but, I think many outlooks, as well as his, were prepared before the recent positive changes in the Pac. I think maybe a couple have alluded to that with an Appendage in that things may be better or follow the outlier colder Analogues like 2013-14. The way things were it looked as though we had a good shot at the warmest on Record.

     Hopefully the Pacific becomes more favorable. Probably won't get much help from the NAO once the QBO goes more positive. Hopefully, a +TNH Pattern pops and does the trick. 

[Terpeast]

I’m a little more optimistic than the worst case scenarios, more like 7-10” for DC and west, 4-7” SE (similar to Don S’s thoughts). Could really happen in one storm and then that’s all she wrote. 

Could also be a <4” shutout but I think this season will have a surprise curveball or two for us. 

[winter_warlock]

21 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I’m a little more optimistic than the worst case scenarios, more like 7-10” for DC and west, 4-7” SE (similar to Don S’s thoughts). Could really happen in one storm and then that’s all she wrote. 

Could also be a <4” shutout but I think this season will have a surprise curveball or two for us. 

 I think it will be a normal winter  for most. Not too far from the normal snowfall  for most.  Maybe a little less but nothing like the snowless winter we had a couple years ago.  But.  Winter predictions. Almost never pan out lol always a wait and see.  It's hard enough for modeling to predict a week out , let alone 3 months!!! Lol

[bncho]

14 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

persistence seasonal forecasting isn't the worst way for us lol.  It pretty much works every summer to ignore all data and just go above normal.  

But I think sometimes we all forget it can snow here.  I thought the back to back 4"ers in January were pretty cool. We just need to be able to be generate one other snowy period.  A couple 1-3" events for me and one 4-8" and all the sudden I'm nearing a 20" winter.  And you quite a bit more.  getting a december snow would be nice, but it's just too elusive these days to expect anything

 

 

 

Agreed. This isn't scientific or anything, but SOMETHING has to give. If we get two different 1-2 week periods of cold and snow, who knows what'll happen.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I did some analysis of weak la nina years and a corresponding -NAO. Enjoy!

[psuhoffman]

Sorry I was I wrong thread. @brooklynwx99Wrt 2014, we will know very soon. 2014 tipped its cap very early. As soon as the first cold period hit those waves started to target south of 40 which is very unusual. If in the next few weeks one of these waves actually flush hits somewhere south of 40 my radar will be up. But if they all end up sliding by frustratingly close but to our north…well that’s how those other colder -enso years went. 

[psuhoffman]

I will put my full bias on the table...2009 is my top analog and it was by far my least favorite winter EVER.  Because it was generally cold for long stretches, at least a cold enough pattern to snow...and it did snow a decent amount just to our north, so I was tracking and invested and watching every freaking wave, and almost nothing came of any of them.  Yea I got slightly more snow that winter than a few others (but other than a bunch of 1" evens it was all from one March storm), but those years the pattern was no hope awful and I just checked out, 2009 was the biggest waste of my time for little return of any winter.