Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[Terpeast]

12 hours ago, CAPE said:

The week leading up to Xmas per the latest Euro extended. For shits and giggles ofc.

This is the general h5 look that has been depicted for awhile now on seasonal guidance at certain points during upcoming winter, specifically the CFS.

Yeah, that’s the beginning of the time frame that I’m interested in. Around then through roughly mid Jan, depending on the MJO

[Ji]

Yeah, that’s the beginning of the time frame that I’m interested in. Around then through roughly mid Jan, depending on the MJO

We’ll probably get 20-30 inches between mid December and late January. Buckle up!

[NorthArlington101]

This is the year we get a Dec. 5th storm back. And then we’re blanked for the rest of the year.

[Benjamn3]

I just want a non blow torch Xmas. It ain’t even gotta snow. Lol

[WxUSAF]

Maybe -PDO has at least cooled off from record levels?

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Maybe -PDO has at least cooled off from record levels?

 

It would be so fitting for our collective boom prediction bust last year to be followed up with our collective dreg prediction busting.

[87storms]

Kammerer went a little below average, but respectable snow totals for a La Niña.

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Kammerer went a little below average, but respectable snow totals for a La Niña.

Yah, if I get the 20-28 inches he is forecasting around Frederick will be very happy!

[87storms]

Yah, if I get the 20-28 inches he is forecasting around Frederick will be very happy!

I thought he went a bit high in our areas, but I’m in on snow this year…so will take it as well. With temps looking suspect, I think one of the bigger question marks is whether we’ll have enough storms to roll the dice on.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Kammerer went a little below average, but respectable snow totals for a La Niña.

Hard to trust him after last winter's debacle. But then again, everyone was off base.

[WxUSAF]

FWIW, WBAL in Baltimore going with 15” seasonal total for BWI. That would certainly be in the “good Niña” category.

[brooklynwx99]

obviously, take with a grain of salt, but it doesn't hurt to see ridging setting up over the WC/AK at the end of November on longer range guidance

no real snow risk here, just bodes well IMO

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

obviously, take with a grain of salt, but it doesn't hurt to see ridging setting up over the WC/AK at the end of November on longer range guidance

no real snow risk here, just bodes well IMO

Anything other than a pig AK vortex or a Pacific Doom Blob is a win this year.  

Also just getting cooler air injected into NA would be nice.  We've learned the hard way that a cool November doesn't necessarily translate to DJF, but I believe that November torches start us even further behind the 8-ball than normal.  As an example, take 20122-22 where we had the first solid period of December -NAO in a decade but it accomplished bupkis because the entire continent had been torched in November and once blocking started in December it was just blocking in mild air. 

[WxUSAF]

 

[stormy]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Really!  My Goodness............................

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html

 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Nice job. That’s a ton of work. I think you’re in the right ballpark for our area. Hoping we get a 2-3 week period of real winter at some point (probably January as you say) and then maybe a couple flukes outside that if we’re really lucky. But don’t think anyone would be shocked with nearly wall to wall bikini weather.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Generally agree, but think more WPO.

[WxUSAF]

CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. 

[Paleocene]

52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. 

The below normal Feb temp forecast stood out..when did we last have that??

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

The below normal Feb temp forecast stood out..when did we last have that??

54 years ago I think 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. 

There are def. signs of a better north Pacific...I would bet my life that is what is driving some of these doomsday deviations.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. 

i can definitely see that happening. there are reasons to believe this could actually be a decent to good winter. 2013-14, 2020-21, and 2021-22 are all good analogs

i just don't think anyone has the balls (including myself personally or professionally) to actually pull the trigger. better to go conservative in this -PDO regime and bust low

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

i can definitely see that happening. there are reasons to believe this could actually be a decent to good winter

i just don't think anyone has the balls (including myself personally or professionally) to actually pull the trigger. better to go conservative in this -PDO regime and bust low

Yea, I have gotten myself into trouble forecasting upside chases too much lately, so I couldn't do it again....but I see a path.

[Bob Chill]

52 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i can definitely see that happening. there are reasons to believe this could actually be a decent to good winter. 2013-14, 2020-21, and 2021-22 are all good analogs

i just don't think anyone has the balls (including myself personally or professionally) to actually pull the trigger. better to go conservative in this -PDO regime and bust low

Considering enso, climo, and recent pac jet history... oh boy is it easy to jump to doomclusions lol. I never really felt that this fall. Just gut stuff but I've watched enough unfold over the last 20 years to trust my intuition algorithm. Now that we're deep into fall, my conscious mind likes what it sees. 

Like I said some weeks back, my gut is yelling that this winter will have its highlights that will put it ahead of the last couple years. Warm periods will almost certainly include some form of an annoying SER. But i really doubt it will be a statue. HL blocking has been flexing on and off quite a bit last few months. No reason to think that goes poof.... yet.... lol

[DarkSharkWX]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. 

2013-14, 2012-13, 2005-06, 1961-62 are their top analogs

probably leaning towards +TNH winter instead of canonical Nina bc of the persistent warm pool in the tropical wpac at ~160E

+TNH winters also tend to break the mold of typical Nina winters which are usually frontloaded, and have a colder jan-feb than dec, which is what they went with

[bncho]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. 

pray to god lmfao

 

but then again wusa9 is pretty bullish as well 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

2013-14, 2012-13, 2005-06, 1961-62 are their top analogs

probably leaning towards +TNH winter instead of canonical Nina bc of the persistent warm pool in the tropical wpac at ~160E

+TNH winters also tend to break the mold of typical Nina winters which are usually frontloaded, and have a colder jan-feb than dec, which is what they went with

Yea, I honed in on that...here is in excerpt from my outook:

Western & Northern Pacific May Be Crucial for Winter 2024-2025

The winter pattern over the northern and western Pacific will play an instrumental role in dictating what type of variation is seen from the predominate MC forcing this winter season, especially since La Nina appears poised to assume a secondary role this year. Meteorologist Eric Webb has posited that an area of anomalously warm SSTs over the tropical Pacific in the vicinity of 150-160 degrees east longitude may be a reasonably skilled indicator with respect to the WPO during the ensuing winter season.

 

 

 The theory essentially is that anomalous sea surface warmth in the vicinity of 150-160 degrees East longitude in the tropical Pacific increases convection and convergence near the surface, which leads to negative outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomalies aloft, or divergence and sinking air. If this persists into the winter season, it correlates to the opposite pattern over the higher latitudes in the area of the Bering sea, which means sinking air and ridging at the surface in this area. This would obviously yield a -WPO pattern in the DM seasonal mean.

 

 

 

 

As a point of reference, here is the October SST anomaly profile in this area prior to the strongly negative DM period of 2013-2014.

 

 

And the resultant DM pattern.

 

 

Here is the October 2020 SST pattern preceding the strongly positive 2020-2021 season, which is the most prominent +WPO member of the variation data set.

 

 

Note the pronounced +WPO despite the variation within the PNA and polar domains that allowed for a prolonged early to mid season wintry interlude over the northeast.

 

Here are the October 2017 SST anomalies that preceded the more moderately +WPO winter of 2017-2018.

 

The WPO did not provide a particularly strong signal that season and the warmth over the east was subdued by the EPO/NAO blocking in tandem with +PNA.

 

 

Here is the October SST anomaly pattern that yielded a -WPO/+PNA reprieve from the predominate MC forcing during the 2021-2022 winter season.

 

 

And the resultant pattern that led to a noteworthy wintry interlude mid season in the absence of high latitude blocking over Greenland or the Arctic.

 

 

Here is the SST anomaly pattern from October 2022 that preceded the strongly positive WPO winter of 2022-2023.

 

 

The strong polar blocking in March was insufficient to overcome a hostile Pacific for the east coast, which was largely left unscathed, at least in terms of snowfall, by a stormy beginning and end to the season.

 

 

Finally, here is the SST anomaly chart from October 2024.

 

 

The SST anomaly profile this year most closely resembles that of the severely negative WPO seasons of 2013-2014 and 2021-2022. 

 

 

Considering this composite match, the forecast for the DM mean WPO value is within the range of -.40 to -.70, and given the strong tendency for +EPO among the cool ENSO deviation dataset, the JM EPO is predicted to register anywhere within a range of .30 to .60. This is anticipated as being the primary distinction between the coming season and 2013-2014, which also featured a severely negative JM mean EPO value of -.89, and was thus very cold relative to the modern climate. 

 

 

For the sake of perspective, a comparison between the North Pacific SST anomaly pattern in the Gulf of Alaska during October 2014 and 2011 are provided; each preceding contrasting extreme variations of the seasonal EPO pattern.

 

 

 

Note that while clearly October of 2024 represents a compromise that is as extreme as either depiction, it does more closely resemble the warmer, October 2011 anomaly, suggestive of a more moderately +EPO seasonal mean during the coming winter.

 

 

 

Lending credence to this forecast for a predominately +EPO/-WPO during the coming winter season is the subgroup of older extra Pacific analogs, including 1973, and 1974, which are uncoincidentally from the secondary PDO nadir just prior to the end of the previous Pacific cold phase, as well as 1954, 1955, 1970, 1971, 1999, 2007 and 2010.

 

 

This general idea has support from some seasonal guidance, granted it manifests differently with a more exaggerated southeast ridge during this modern era.

 

 

[DarkSharkWX]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I honed in on that...here is in excerpt from my outook:

Western & Northern Pacific May Be Crucial for Winter 2024-2025

The winter pattern over the northern and western Pacific will play an instrumental role in dictating what type of variation is seen from the predominate MC forcing this winter season, especially since La Nina appears poised to assume a secondary role this year. Meteorologist Eric Webb has posited that an area of anomalously warm SSTs over the tropical Pacific in the vicinity of 150-160 degrees east longitude may be a reasonably skilled indicator with respect to the WPO during the ensuing winter season.

 

 

 The theory essentially is that anomalous sea surface warmth in the vicinity of 150-160 degrees East longitude in the tropical Pacific increases convection and convergence near the surface, which leads to negative outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomalies aloft, or divergence and sinking air. If this persists into the winter season, it correlates to the opposite pattern over the higher latitudes in the area of the Bering sea, which means sinking air and ridging at the surface in this area. This would obviously yield a -WPO pattern in the DM seasonal mean.

 

 

 

 

As a point of reference, here is the October SST anomaly profile in this area prior to the strongly negative DM period of 2013-2014.

 

 

And the resultant DM pattern.

 

 

Here is the October 2020 SST pattern preceding the strongly positive 2020-2021 season, which is the most prominent +WPO member of the variation data set.

 

 

Note the pronounced +WPO despite the variation within the PNA and polar domains that allowed for a prolonged early to mid season wintry interlude over the northeast.

 

Here are the October 2017 SST anomalies that preceded the more moderately +WPO winter of 2017-2018.

 

The WPO did not provide a particularly strong signal that season and the warmth over the east was subdued by the EPO/NAO blocking in tandem with +PNA.

 

 

Here is the October SST anomaly pattern that yielded a -WPO/+PNA reprieve from the predominate MC forcing during the 2021-2022 winter season.

 

 

And the resultant pattern that led to a noteworthy wintry interlude mid season in the absence of high latitude blocking over Greenland or the Arctic.

 

 

Here is the SST anomaly pattern from October 2022 that preceded the strongly positive WPO winter of 2022-2023.

 

 

The strong polar blocking in March was insufficient to overcome a hostile Pacific for the east coast, which was largely left unscathed, at least in terms of snowfall, by a stormy beginning and end to the season.

 

 

Finally, here is the SST anomaly chart from October 2024.

 

 

The SST anomaly profile this year most closely resembles that of the severely negative WPO seasons of 2013-2014 and 2021-2022. 

 

 

Considering this composite match, the forecast for the DM mean WPO value is within the range of -.40 to -.70, and given the strong tendency for +EPO among the cool ENSO deviation dataset, the JM EPO is predicted to register anywhere within a range of .30 to .60. This is anticipated as being the primary distinction between the coming season and 2013-2014, which also featured a severely negative JM mean EPO value of -.89, and was thus very cold relative to the modern climate. 

 

 

 

For the sake of perspective, a comparison between the North Pacific SST anomaly pattern in the Gulf of Alaska during October 2014 and 2011 are provided; each preceding contrasting extreme variations of the seasonal EPO pattern.

 

 

 

Note that while clearly October of 2024 represents a compromise that is as extreme as either depiction, it does more closely resemble the warmer, October 2011 anomaly, suggestive of a more moderately +EPO seasonal mean during the 

 

 

Lending credence to this forecast for a predominately +EPO/-WPO during the coming winter season is the subgroup of older extra Pacific analogs, including 1973, and 1974, which are uncoincidentally from the secondary PDO nadir just prior to the end of the previous Pacific cold phase, as well as 1954, 1955, 1970, 1971, 1999, 2007 and 2010.

 

 

This general idea has support from some seasonal guidance, granted it manifests differently with a more exaggerated southeast ridge during this modern era.

 

 

where do you get that website and the one you used to show the level of the warm pool, psl monthly only lets me put in 20 years

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

where do you get that website and the one you used to show the level of the warm pool, psl monthly only lets me put in 20 years

Subsurface: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/

Coralreef: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/