Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[EastCoast NPZ]

Calling it right now.  This is the year we hit 80F in December. 

[peribonca]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Calling it right now.  This is the year we hit 80F in December. 

Every single month will have an 80+ reading

[WEATHER53]

On 10/26/2024 at 3:01 PM, MDstorm said:

The anomalously dry Fall continues.  The last time we had such a dry Fall was in 1963.  If only that analog worked out for the upcoming winter 

It appeared somewhere else also

i I think that was last time DCA had 6”+ all 4 months DJFM 

[WEATHER53]

So many tried and true methods have struggled and me too. I think this winter will be a bit better than last. Like maybe two weeks of winter and not just one.  No garish 1-5” wipe out but 12-15” seems right 

[BristowWx]

14 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Calling it right now.  This is the year we hit 80F in December. 

24 or 25th.  Money in the bank

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

On 10/28/2024 at 7:09 PM, Terpeast said:

Has Ji ever canceled winter this early in October? 

Climate change.  He cancels even earlier than he did back in the day.  Our old Ji analogues for canceling the season don't apply anymore. 

[Terpeast]

Just some fun speculation… maybe Feb will be the cold month this time? Not the first time CFS hinted this

[frd]

55 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just some fun speculation… maybe Feb will be the cold month this time? Not the first time CFS hinted this

Thought Ninas were front loaded. 

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, frd said:

Thought Ninas were front loaded. 

Not recently. Best periods have been early Jan (2017-18) and also late winter- March 2018. Also much of Jan 2022, with multiple snow events.

The CFS has been pretty consistent with the -EPO idea, esp for the mid to latter part of winter.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Not recently. Best periods have been early Jan (2017-18) and also late winter- March 2018. Also much of Jan 2022, with multiple snow events.

The CFS has been pretty consistent with the -EPO idea, esp for the mid to latter part of winter.

22-23 the only remotely workable pattern we got was mid-late December and we missed on the big storm that kicked it off. And that was all she wrote…

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

22-23 the only remotely workable pattern we got was mid-late December and we missed on the big storm that kicked it off. And that was all she wrote…

Oh, you mean the 30 minutes of a cold blast right before Christmas, that only slightly interrupted very warm conditions before and after!! 

[stormy]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

22-23 the only remotely workable pattern we got was mid-late December and we missed on the big storm that kicked it off. And that was all she wrote…

Jan 3, 2022-  8 inches of snow and drifting.

Jan 7, 2022 - 3 inches snow.

Jan. 17, 2022 - 8.5 inches snow.

Jan. 28  - 1.3" snow

Feb. 13  - 2.0" snow

March 12 - 3.0" snow

21-22 gave me above normal snowfall !!

How about this, guys?

 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Just some fun speculation… maybe Feb will be the cold month this time? Not the first time CFS hinted this

I can see it now. The Feb long range will be called “Feb will be rocking!” for a third year in a row and it’ll be yet another rug pull instead.

[LongRanger]

By now it seems 09-10 must have been a dream. Nina? Pinta? Heck, I'm praying to Santa María.

[Terpeast]

4 hours ago, frd said:

Thought Ninas were front loaded. 

This may not even qualify as a nina if ONI stays weak, even though MEI/RONI are already in nina territory. 

both Nov and Dec look torchy, and I don’t see any decent chances for wintry weather in the MA until late Dec and thereafter. 

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Just some fun speculation… maybe Feb will be the cold month this time? Not the first time CFS hinted this

That may be the case. Winter pf 1971-72 comes to mind 

[Ji]

This may not even qualify as a nina if ONI stays weak, even though MEI/RONI are already in nina territory. 
both Nov and Dec look torchy, and I don’t see any decent chances for wintry weather in the MA until late Dec and thereafter. 

There is a chance mjo goes into favorable phase by Dec 20. The pattern can’t stay like this forever. Cfs has flipped between liking January and February almost daily lol but most runs like one month