Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[Terpeast]

Just some fun speculation… maybe Feb will be the cold month this time? Not the first time CFS hinted this

[frd]

55 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just some fun speculation… maybe Feb will be the cold month this time? Not the first time CFS hinted this

Thought Ninas were front loaded. 

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, frd said:

Thought Ninas were front loaded. 

Not recently. Best periods have been early Jan (2017-18) and also late winter- March 2018. Also much of Jan 2022, with multiple snow events.

The CFS has been pretty consistent with the -EPO idea, esp for the mid to latter part of winter.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Not recently. Best periods have been early Jan (2017-18) and also late winter- March 2018. Also much of Jan 2022, with multiple snow events.

The CFS has been pretty consistent with the -EPO idea, esp for the mid to latter part of winter.

22-23 the only remotely workable pattern we got was mid-late December and we missed on the big storm that kicked it off. And that was all she wrote…

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

22-23 the only remotely workable pattern we got was mid-late December and we missed on the big storm that kicked it off. And that was all she wrote…

Oh, you mean the 30 minutes of a cold blast right before Christmas, that only slightly interrupted very warm conditions before and after!! 

[stormy]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

22-23 the only remotely workable pattern we got was mid-late December and we missed on the big storm that kicked it off. And that was all she wrote…

Jan 3, 2022-  8 inches of snow and drifting.

Jan 7, 2022 - 3 inches snow.

Jan. 17, 2022 - 8.5 inches snow.

Jan. 28  - 1.3" snow

Feb. 13  - 2.0" snow

March 12 - 3.0" snow

21-22 gave me above normal snowfall !!

How about this, guys?

 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Just some fun speculation… maybe Feb will be the cold month this time? Not the first time CFS hinted this

I can see it now. The Feb long range will be called “Feb will be rocking!” for a third year in a row and it’ll be yet another rug pull instead.

[LongRanger]

By now it seems 09-10 must have been a dream. Nina? Pinta? Heck, I'm praying to Santa María.

[Terpeast]

4 hours ago, frd said:

Thought Ninas were front loaded. 

This may not even qualify as a nina if ONI stays weak, even though MEI/RONI are already in nina territory. 

both Nov and Dec look torchy, and I don’t see any decent chances for wintry weather in the MA until late Dec and thereafter. 

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Just some fun speculation… maybe Feb will be the cold month this time? Not the first time CFS hinted this

That may be the case. Winter pf 1971-72 comes to mind 

[Ji]

This may not even qualify as a nina if ONI stays weak, even though MEI/RONI are already in nina territory. 
both Nov and Dec look torchy, and I don’t see any decent chances for wintry weather in the MA until late Dec and thereafter. 

There is a chance mjo goes into favorable phase by Dec 20. The pattern can’t stay like this forever. Cfs has flipped between liking January and February almost daily lol but most runs like one month

[Prestige Worldwide]

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1853821333211127925?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

[Ji]

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1853821333211127925?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

Nobody cares. After last year…this is a 2-3 weeks out business

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Nobody cares. After last year…this is a 2-3 weeks out business

Pssh not even that long...Day 10 at the latest! We saw can kicks happen two weeks out...so you almost wonder if it's better to just go from discreet threat to discreet threat!

[Ji]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Pssh not even that long...Day 10 at the latest! We saw can kicks happen two weeks out...so you almost wonder if it's better to just go from discreet threat to discreet threat!

thats how i am approaching this winter. ensembles out to 360 hours. We are currently in the hide the kids and shut the blinds mode. We got 40 days to fix this

[Stormchaserchuck1]

October PDO -3.81, lowest monthly reading going back 170 years. 

[cbmclean]

53 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October PDO -3.81, lowest monthly reading going back 170 years. 

Where can you find data on monthly/daily PDO?

[cbmclean]

22 hours ago, Ji said:

Nobody cares. After last year…this is a 2-3 weeks out business

I care; if we've lost "Big Vodka Cold Joe", it's a bad sign.

[cbmclean]

12 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Where can you find data on monthly/daily PDO?

I found this link for monthly.  Doesn;t include October yet though

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

[Stormchaserchuck1]

32 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Where can you find data on monthly/daily PDO?

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/  "view data"

[psuhoffman]

On 11/4/2024 at 8:49 PM, Ji said:

There is a chance mjo goes into favorable phase by Dec 20. The pattern can’t stay like this forever. Cfs has flipped between liking January and February almost daily lol but most runs like one month

No, but it will probably stay mostly this way until the PDO comes back towards less ridiculous territory and there is no sign of that happening at all.  If the PDO were to actually stay in the -3 area all winter I could see this being a no winter year.  Not just no snow...but a winter that is just a prolonged October with highs in 60s many days.  

[87storms]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No, but it will probably stay mostly this way until the PDO comes back towards less ridiculous territory and there is no sign of that happening at all.  If the PDO were to actually stay in the -3 area all winter I could see this being a no winter year.  Not just no snow...but a winter that is just a prolonged October with highs in 60s many days.  

You mean it needs to be cold for it to snow?  Until we get a seasonable pattern and actual storms, it's logically challenging to argue with your analysis.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I did an analog composite for the warmest Oct-Nov's on record for the CONUS (this year could be #1)

[cbmclean]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

No, but it will probably stay mostly this way until the PDO comes back towards less ridiculous territory and there is no sign of that happening at all.  If the PDO were to actually stay in the -3 area all winter I could see this being a no winter year.  Not just no snow...but a winter that is just a prolonged October with highs in 60s many days.  

I think our only hope, and it's a long shot, is some sort of odd interaction between the anomalous PDO and the QBO that might lead to the poleward expansion of the C Pac ridge, leading to this being one of the "good Ninas" you have mentioned.  Even then though we would be fighting against cold-dry/warm-wet.  But I'd rather have that than a 6 month fall.

[soadforecasterx]

 

funny i did see long long range models hint at this type of set up. first bit of hope. i know it will be gone next run but good to see. 

[psuhoffman]

On 11/6/2024 at 7:56 PM, cbmclean said:

I think our only hope, and it's a long shot, is some sort of odd interaction between the anomalous PDO and the QBO that might lead to the poleward expansion of the C Pac ridge, leading to this being one of the "good Ninas" you have mentioned.  Even then though we would be fighting against cold-dry/warm-wet.  But I'd rather have that than a 6 month fall.

It's possible, there are no analogs this extreme.  You have to go back to the 1800s to find anything close to this level of -PDO.  And I doubt we can even take much from what happened then given how much things have changed.  Overcoming a hostile pacific was a lot easier in the significantly colder climate of the 1800s.  

More recently we had an extremely (not to this level though) -PDO heading into 2022 and that turned out "ok".  I would take a repeat of that winter in heartbeat right now.  It could be much much MUCH worse!  

[CAPE]

Fwiw the Euro and GEFS extended both break down the AK trough and have a ridge developing there(EPO space) early-mid December, with a TPV lobe developing further SE towards northern Hudson Bay.

 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Fwiw the Euro and GEFS extended both break down the AK trough and have a ridge developing there(EPO space) early-mid December, with a TPV lobe developing further SE towards northern Hudson Bay.

 

That would work and also possibly build a bridge over the Top and suppress that lobe further South.

[CAPE]

The week leading up to Xmas per the latest Euro extended. For shits and giggles ofc.

This is the general h5 look that has been depicted for awhile now on seasonal guidance at certain points during upcoming winter, specifically the CFS.

[Ji]

The week leading up to Xmas per the latest Euro extended. For shits and giggles ofc.
This is the general h5 look that has been depicted for awhile now on seasonal guidance at certain points during upcoming winter, specifically the CFS.

We could be back in a favorable mjo phase by then