Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Well, I have been saying last 3-5 years the Pacific the largest body of water on Earth has warmed to the point of that overpowers any winter pattern that gives snow to us and just floods the lower 48 with pacific air that does not produce significant snows; this idea is the new normal. I have no faith in a winter that will produce much. 

Us? Location dependent. Not sure what a cooperative Pac means tbh(you didn't say that but you responded to a post that did). A 'flood' of PAC air associated with the NPJ will often produce prolific snows in the high terrain of the western US. Also, the Pac jet characteristics(extensions, contractions) are variable,  and will induce shifts in the strength/location of associated h5 features that ultimately impact the sensible weather further downstream. This is never a constant, so even in an overall hostile pattern for winter weather, periods of actual legit winter weather can still occur. We have seen this happen multiple times in recent winters with -PDO/Nina conditions.

[Jebman]

Climate change is raging. Just look at poor Florida and west NC. These hurricanes are just exploding. This phenomenon is being provoked by climate change.

Climate change will continue to ravage us this upcoming winter. La Nina will, too. It will be milder and drier than usual in the Mid Atlantic, and even worse in Texas. Places like Wisconsin will be impacted by cooler and wetter than normal conditions. My uncle in La Crosse has already seen two lows in the mid teens.

The Mid Atlantic may see some precip, but I am very much afraid it may be rain or mix. You guys stand a decent chance at frozen hydrometeors this winter but I expect average snow tallies throughout the region into March 2025. PSU may get demolished by 200 percent of normal snows by late April or early May of the new year.

As for my neck of the woods, it is going to be dry and quite warm into the Winter, no surprise there, I live in south central Texas. Normal temps in January are a high of 59 and a low of 41, which is why we can have fresh figs and tomatoes sometimes into New Years Day lol. Spring hits us in March often with 85/67 weather, then turns hot as hell with 102/74 for weeks and weeks and weeks on end that lasts into early October. This winter for us will be dry and mild. There are two things that tend to bedevil us in winter, one is those damn wind events that topple trees. The other is air just cold enough to support pesky freezing drizzle then the stuff just keeps on blowing in from the north for a few days, piling ice on objects until the weight causes big oak trees to snap, often right onto houses. This winter looks milder though and less drizzle.

Mid Atlantic should see opportunities for meaningful snow but it will be challenging this winter. Elevations should do better obviously. La Nina can be tough on the Washington region in winter and so many things need to line up, especially with all the moving parts and climate change helping to muck things up.

[yoda]

Saw this up in the SNE thread.  Hope it's okay to post in here

2 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

My top analogs for 2024-2025.  Mixed bag for DC.  I think Boston did pretty well during these winters.  Good luck guys.  

36-37, 79-80, 88-89, 01-02, 11-12

 

2 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

I remember 07-08 up there. SWFE for days and days

I've been looking at specific Nov-Dec analogs, and I think I like Nov-Dec 1973 the best.  Pretty decent in DC.  Not sure how you all fared.

 

[Deck Pic]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Saw this up in the SNE thread.  Hope it's okay to post in here

 

 

It is, but I'm trolling them.  I know it isnt obvious looking at the post, but all the winters mentioned were awful for Boston.  And in Nov-Dec 73 they were shut out.  Silly inside jokey stuff that a handful of posters there will get.  We've been on these forums for 25 years now.  We have to keep it fun, especially now that it no longer snows in DC.  

[yoda]

2 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

It is, but I'm trolling them.  I know it isnt obvious looking at the post, but all the winters mentioned were awful for Boston.  And in Nov-Dec 73 they were shut out.  Silly inside jokey stuff that a handful of posters there will get.  We've been on these forums for 25 years now.  We have to keep it fun, especially now that it no longer snows in DC.  

This is true... or we get a random week to 10 days like last winter and then that's it.  I really hope we get some decent stuff this winter, but I'm prepared for a disappointment.  

[Benjamn3]

It’s so strange how it’s like a faucet was shut off. I agree climate change has a lot to do with it, however we could still get good winters 10 years ago. Something is certainly off. The writing is on the wall about this winter. I will be curious to see over the coming decades where the fault lies and where our climate ends up. 

[Deck Pic]

4 hours ago, Benjamn3 said:

It’s so strange how it’s like a faucet was shut off. I agree climate change has a lot to do with it, however we could still get good winters 10 years ago. Something is certainly off. The writing is on the wall about this winter. I will be curious to see over the coming decades where the fault lies and where our climate ends up. 

my total uneducated guess - there are still some robust cyclical/decadal global patterns that are not as influenced by climate change as others and/or are more influenced by climate change but in a way that can occasionally correlate with potentially good winter patterns.  eg, 80 degrees in anchorage and baffin island on January 15th with 594dm omega blocks and 113 degree ocean temps in the Atlantic (all hyperbole of course) - which is more likely to mix here and more likely to not be able to access siberian airmasses, but still have an elevated chance of something stupid happening like a cutoff over the TN valley that stalls and gives the burbs 18-24".

tl;dr - 

I think DCA will have a 35"+ winter over the next 5 years and at least one -7 or colder winter month, and IAD will have an 18"+ event.  Problem is the other 4 years lol.

DCA

2024-25: +5, 3.1"

2025-26: +2, 6.3"

2026-27: -2, 38.4"

2027-28: +4, 1.8"

2028-29: +1, 8.7"

I guess we take?  Do we have a choice?

 

 

[nw baltimore wx]

My like on @Deck Pic’s post is a substitute for the non-existent “Hell Yeah!” emoji. Particularly for the -7 month.

[stormy]

17 hours ago, Jebman said:

Climate change is raging. Just look at poor Florida and west NC. These hurricanes are just exploding. This phenomenon is being provoked by climate change.

Climate change will continue to ravage us this upcoming winter. La Nina will, too. It will be milder and drier than usual in the Mid Atlantic, and even worse in Texas. Places like Wisconsin will be impacted by cooler and wetter than normal conditions. My uncle in La Crosse has already seen two lows in the mid teens.

The Mid Atlantic may see some precip, but I am very much afraid it may be rain or mix. You guys stand a decent chance at frozen hydrometeors this winter but I expect average snow tallies throughout the region into March 2025. PSU may get demolished by 200 percent of normal snows by late April or early May of the new year.

As for my neck of the woods, it is going to be dry and quite warm into the Winter, no surprise there, I live in south central Texas. Normal temps in January are a high of 59 and a low of 41, which is why we can have fresh figs and tomatoes sometimes into New Years Day lol. Spring hits us in March often with 85/67 weather, then turns hot as hell with 102/74 for weeks and weeks and weeks on end that lasts into early October. This winter for us will be dry and mild. There are two things that tend to bedevil us in winter, one is those damn wind events that topple trees. The other is air just cold enough to support pesky freezing drizzle then the stuff just keeps on blowing in from the north for a few days, piling ice on objects until the weight causes big oak trees to snap, often right onto houses. This winter looks milder though and less drizzle.

Mid Atlantic should see opportunities for meaningful snow but it will be challenging this winter. Elevations should do better obviously. La Nina can be tough on the Washington region in winter and so many things need to line up, especially with all the moving parts and climate change helping to muck things up.

You need to take a break..........................................

[Jebman]

12 hours ago, stormy said:

You need to take a break..........................................

Perhaps.

[WxUSAF]

ENSO region without a major signal, but the north Pac is interesting. That major marine heatwave east of Japan is continuing, but a lot of warm water along the west coast. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

ENSO region without a major signal, but the north Pac is interesting. That major marine heatwave east of Japan is continuing, but a lot of warm water along the west coast. 

Makes me wonder if the Niña will cancel out and we’ll be neutral?

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Makes me wonder if the Niña will cancel out and we’ll be neutral?

Our last 2 neutral winters were awful. 

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Our last 2 neutral winters were awful. 

Global warming will change that don’t worry. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Our last 2 neutral winters were awful. 

Trying to remember...did the AO ape both times or was that just 2020?

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Trying to remember...did the AO ape both times or was that just 2020?

Going back to 1950 there have been 7 enso neutral winters during a deeply -PDO regime. All 7 were well below average snowfall at BWI. 2020 was the most recent example. 
 

If we end up enso neutral it would reduce the expected snowfall for BWI from 11” to 7” using the method I’m experimenting with.  Assuming all other factors stay the same.  

[Maestrobjwa]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Going back to 1950 there have been 7 enso neutral winters during a deeply -PDO regime. All 7 were well below average snowfall at BWI. 2020 was the most recent example. 
 

If we end up enso neutral it would reduce the expected snowfall for BWI from 11” to 7” using the method I’m experimenting with.  Assuming all other factors stay the same.  

Oh yeah I wasn't questioning the data just wondering in how many the AO did what it did in 2020.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we end up enso neutral it would reduce the expected snowfall for BWI from 11” to 7” using the method I’m experimenting with.  Assuming all other factors stay the same.  

La Nina is actually a colder weather pattern. I know a lot of people don't believe me, because it has correlated with the -PDO so strongly lately, but here is what Anti-Strong El Nino's looks like (because no La Nina's have matched that strength)

^There is a slight -NAO signal there, so maybe shift the anomalies west a little bit, but that's what Pure La Nina should do (w/out correlation to PDO)

The SST map of anti-Strong El Nino's has a weak PDO.  65-66, 72-73, and 23-24 were all -pdo. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh yeah I wasn't questioning the data just wondering in how many the AO did what it did in 2020.

19-20 was our last +AO/+NAO Winter, based on 500mb over Greenland and Iceland. Every year after that has been neutral or negative. 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh yeah I wasn't questioning the data just wondering in how many the AO did what it did in 2020.

There seems to be a correlation with enso neutral and +AO in strongly -PDO regimes. That might explain why they all end up so bad wrt snowfall.  In some of the Nina years the pacific ridge actually extends into the AO domain and sometimes even links with the NAO. We still suffer from the lack of STJ so they haven’t been particularly snowy but they are close and “snowier” than the neural years. 

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

La Nina is actually a colder weather pattern. I know a lot of people don't believe me, because it has correlated with the -PDO so strongly lately, but here is what Anti-Strong El Nino's looks like (because no La Nina's have matched that strength)

^There is a slight -NAO signal there, so maybe shift the anomalies west a little bit, but that's what Pure La Nina should do (w/out correlation to PDO)

The SST map of anti-Strong El Nino's has a weak PDO.  65-66, 72-73, and 23-24 were all -pdo. 

I’m with you 100%. There are actually two predominant types of Nina’s. A more flat pacific ridge with a +AO and those are dumpster fires. But Nina’s with a more poleward ridge and a -AO are cold. We still struggle wrt snowfall due to the lack of STJ and NS dominant systems so we get miller Bd to death. But they’re way better than neutrals during -pdos tend to be. 

[psuhoffman]

If we want hope we could always get lucky with something like 2000.  It was a Nina but I think the same type thing could happen in a neutrals also because the snow we got was just pure luck. The pattern that winter was predominantly a dumpster fire shit the blinds pattern. 

There was only a 10 day period the whole winter with any hope at all of snow. And it wasn’t even that good. It was just ok. 

extremely east based  -NAO, mediocre pacific and AO. It’s not awful but that doesn’t scream great chance of a big snow.  And that was the best we got all winter. The rest was total no hope garbage. 
 

But we got a few waves during that window and they all hit the region and one was a blockbuster!  And a positive bust no less!  
 

But it was just pure dumb luck. If we replay that same winter pattern out 100 times 99 end up below normal snow and 70 probably end up like 2020!  There is a lot of luck involved. Even in the worst winters there will be a couple chances. Get lucky and they hit and we avoid a dumper fire no matter how bad the predominant winter pattern is.   

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Our last 2 neutral winters were awful. 

Didn't say it was going to be a good winter.

[WxUSAF]

 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Have to see how this plays out, but could be the winter weather’s version of an “october surprise”

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/19/2024 at 6:07 PM, stormy said:

You need to take a break..........................................

When @Jebmanhas a pessimistic rant, its time to find a new hobby.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/19/2024 at 4:53 PM, Deck Pic said:

my total uneducated guess - there are still some robust cyclical/decadal global patterns that are not as influenced by climate change as others and/or are more influenced by climate change but in a way that can occasionally correlate with potentially good winter patterns.  eg, 80 degrees in anchorage and baffin island on January 15th with 594dm omega blocks and 113 degree ocean temps in the Atlantic (all hyperbole of course) - which is more likely to mix here and more likely to not be able to access siberian airmasses, but still have an elevated chance of something stupid happening like a cutoff over the TN valley that stalls and gives the burbs 18-24".

tl;dr - 

I think DCA will have a 35"+ winter over the next 5 years and at least one -7 or colder winter month, and IAD will have an 18"+ event.  Problem is the other 4 years lol.

DCA

2024-25: +5, 3.1"

2025-26: +2, 6.3"

2026-27: -2, 38.4"

2027-28: +4, 1.8"

2028-29: +1, 8.7"

I guess we take?  Do we have a choice?

 

 

I would look for another 1995-1996, 2002-2003, 2009-2010 type of season around the turn of the decade.

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would look for another 1995-1996, 2002-2003, 1995-1996 type of season around the turn of the decade.

We’re not gonna make it 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Here's my preliminary snow prediction for DC.

3-5 inches, possibly from a single event. Then a week later it's in the 60s for about 5 days in a row.

[North Balti Zen]

Pretty much resigned to, in literally any given upcoming winter, needing to chase to see legit snow.   Gonna start tracking lake effect events, maybe.