Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[87storms]

Early Feb/Mar 2014, FRD got upwards of 20” in one storm. Was living in Wormans with two college buddies. My Wrangler was perfect to keep my parking space free. Never shoveled the spot and no one tried to park there due to depth. Oh the good days!

That 4x4 can really plow through snow, especially with the right tires.

[Maestrobjwa]

54 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

They can, but with a strongly negative PDO the surprises will be few and far between. Here’s hoping we get at least a couple of well-timed rogue southern track storms. 

I know I get weenied for being too negative, but any realistic look at what's actually happening--notably that -PDO mixed with a nina--tells ya that there's just not much there. While nobody wants to toss a winter before it starts, if there were ever a year where doing that is perfectly logical, it's this one! The evidence is already there--we've got the current indices, and the liklihood of a positive surprise is low. Now eternal optimists for no other than reason than to just be, do you 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I know I get weenied for being too negative, but any realistic look at what's actually happening--notably that -PDO mixed with a nina--tells ya that there's just not much there. While nobody wants to toss a winter before it starts, if there were ever a year where doing that is perfectly logical, it's this one! The evidence is already there and the liklihood of a positive surprise is low. Now eternal optimists for no other than reason than to just be, do you 

I wrote off this winter and next winter months ago.

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I wrote off this winter and next winter months ago.

Dang you went further than me, lol I mean yeah Ninas double dip (although I'd like to see examples of times when they didn't), and if we go into next with the same ol' -PDO with another nina then eh. Once we get +PDO at least it'll be something to watch to see how much of a factor the opposite has had on our winters. Of course there's warm pools and other dumb stuff in the pacific too, but what I hear from the better minds on here is that -PDO is an issue. Change that and we can watch...

[Eskimo Joe]

More and more it seems like we need a cooperative Pacific, otherwise we're praying for a rogue fluke event.

[Weather Will]

Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years....

[dailylurker]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years....

The good ole weather channel lol. 

Anyway. Very chilly out there. It's been a chilly October. 

37 here in the forested South River watershed. Frost in the low spots.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

The good ole weather channel lol. 

Anyway. Very chilly out there. It's been a chilly October. 

37 here in the forested South River watershed. Frost in the low spots.

It's been a beautiful month and it reminds me a lot of October 2000. 

I've been wondering if 2000-2001 is in fact a decent analog... which means we're still screwed, but not for the reasons TWC thinks lol

[dailylurker]

22 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It's been a beautiful month and it reminds me a lot of October 2000. 

I've been wondering if 2000-2001 is in fact a decent analog... which means we're still screwed, but not for the reasons TWC thinks lol

Seasonal forecast are just farmer almanacs made by computers lol. We're going to have a good ole fashion climo winter and we're going to enjoy it for what it is. 

[scope1]

I have the farmers almanac and it has a few opportunities for snow in February I’m pretty sure it has one opportunity around Presidents’ Day. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It's been a beautiful month and it reminds me a lot of October 2000. 

I've been wondering if 2000-2001 is in fact a decent analog... which means we're still screwed, but not for the reasons TWC thinks lol

2001 was a decent winter up here, but the 3 largest snowfalls that winter here were all very marginal.  Two were rain to snow events and one was just wet snow the whole time.  2 of the 3 were mostly rain in DC/Baltimore.  If you increase the temp at all...you can probably take away a significant % of that seasons snow up here.  

[aldie 22]

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years....

Chuck finally got a job?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Chuck finally got a job?

This is my Winter forecast for 2024-25

I do think we will have colder periods, but some of the warm spikes will be extreme +departure days, skewing the overall warmer. So, more variation/volatility vs a constant pattern. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is my Winter forecast for 2024-25

I expect this year’s panic room thread to be a busy one.

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I expect this year’s panic room thread to be a busy one.

It shouldn't be. Like we're starting from very, VERY little to no potential here. So wherein lie the panic? Lol Now, I'm sure the "What's wrong with our winters" thread will be jumpin' though...

[peribonca]

Just get ready for another 6 months worth of November in a row.

[Maestrobjwa]

43 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Just get ready for another 6 months worth of November in a row.

Pretty much. Even the most optimistic poster here can't really color this better as far as snow is concerned, lol

[Eskimo Joe]

13 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years....

That's like the one winter (2012-2013?) where JB went warm and dry and everyone knew it was over in early December.

1 hour ago, peribonca said:

Just get ready for another 6 months worth of November in a row.

October.

[Bob Chill]

For overall winter flavor, my  top analogs are 83-84, 03-04, 05-06. Gun to head, Dec will be in play this year but being in play and actually snowing are separate discussions lol. 

Like I alluded to last week with my wag, warm periods will be warm+ and overwhelm any chance at a BN DJF but the cold periods will be sharp. Maybe one month ends BN. My gut says Jan is the best chance at that but recent (persistant) trend is late cold so March is probably more logical. Just spitballin' there. 

If the Nino hangover guess works out then a stj storm in Jan or Feb could make the winter memorable by itself. 

I like Terp's forecast in general but I can't stop thinking the Npac LW pattern won't be classic Nina. A tendency for Aleutian ridging poleward and further east than classic is my against the grain thought. Downstream it would bully the classic SE ridge placement further east. SE ridge delaying and shunting aggressive cold shots has been a real thorn last handful of years. Models have been terrible in mid/long range with that. My guess is that will still be a problem but just less of one than recent years. At times it won't be a problem at all due to my upstream guess. Lots of guessin out of me this year lol

[LeesburgWx]

How many perfect track rainstorms are we getting this year? Over/under 5.5

[JenkinsJinkies]

15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It shouldn't be. Like we're starting from very, VERY little to no potential here. So wherein lie the panic? Lol Now, I'm sure the "What's wrong with our winters" thread will be jumpin' though...

You underestimate the number of weenies in denial.

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, LeesburgWx said:

How many perfect track rainstorms are we getting this year? Over/under 5.5

I’ll go with the under. The SE will likely end up drier than normal, meaning fewer coastals. But that doesn’t mean we won’t get a lot of rain from cutters or double barreled lows. 

[WEATHER53]

I’m bit more optimistic than when I wrote 6 weeks ago.  Late summer and early fall analogs show some 2018-19 matchings. 
I said last winter I thought it would be a little bit better than 2022-23 and 2023-24 was and I think this year a tad better still than 2023-24 

So will go with 12.5”  DCA, 15-17” for IAD and BWI.  

[stormy]

The Great Flood of 1985 had about a 10 day lag before more rain..

We are up to 17 days now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cbmclean]

7 hours ago, LeesburgWx said:

How many perfect track rainstorms are we getting this year? Over/under 5.5

I'll set the over/under on Pacific Jet Extensions as 2.5.

The combo of the PJE and raging SE ridge has been simply killer.  The PJE scours all cold from the entire continent.  After it shuts off, the cold air slowly builds back from the source regions but it takes forever fighting against the SER.  By the time it almost gets here...BOOM, another Pac Puke.  Rinse and repeat ad naseum.  

[Kevin Reilly]

On 10/17/2024 at 7:22 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

More and more it seems like we need a cooperative Pacific, otherwise we're praying for a rogue fluke event.

Well, I have been saying last 3-5 years the Pacific the largest body of water on Earth has warmed to the point of that overpowers any winter pattern that gives snow to us and just floods the lower 48 with pacific air that does not produce significant snows; this idea is the new normal. I have no faith in a winter that will produce much. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Well, I have been saying last 3-5 years the Pacific the largest body of water on Earth has warmed to the point of that overpowers any winter pattern that gives snow to us and just floods the lower 48 with pacific air that does not produce significant snows; this idea is the new normal. I have no faith in a winter that will produce much. 

Us? Location dependent. Not sure what a cooperative Pac means tbh(you didn't say that but you responded to a post that did). A 'flood' of PAC air associated with the NPJ will often produce prolific snows in the high terrain of the western US. Also, the Pac jet characteristics(extensions, contractions) are variable,  and will induce shifts in the strength/location of associated h5 features that ultimately impact the sensible weather further downstream. This is never a constant, so even in an overall hostile pattern for winter weather, periods of actual legit winter weather can still occur. We have seen this happen multiple times in recent winters with -PDO/Nina conditions.

[Jebman]

Climate change is raging. Just look at poor Florida and west NC. These hurricanes are just exploding. This phenomenon is being provoked by climate change.

Climate change will continue to ravage us this upcoming winter. La Nina will, too. It will be milder and drier than usual in the Mid Atlantic, and even worse in Texas. Places like Wisconsin will be impacted by cooler and wetter than normal conditions. My uncle in La Crosse has already seen two lows in the mid teens.

The Mid Atlantic may see some precip, but I am very much afraid it may be rain or mix. You guys stand a decent chance at frozen hydrometeors this winter but I expect average snow tallies throughout the region into March 2025. PSU may get demolished by 200 percent of normal snows by late April or early May of the new year.

As for my neck of the woods, it is going to be dry and quite warm into the Winter, no surprise there, I live in south central Texas. Normal temps in January are a high of 59 and a low of 41, which is why we can have fresh figs and tomatoes sometimes into New Years Day lol. Spring hits us in March often with 85/67 weather, then turns hot as hell with 102/74 for weeks and weeks and weeks on end that lasts into early October. This winter for us will be dry and mild. There are two things that tend to bedevil us in winter, one is those damn wind events that topple trees. The other is air just cold enough to support pesky freezing drizzle then the stuff just keeps on blowing in from the north for a few days, piling ice on objects until the weight causes big oak trees to snap, often right onto houses. This winter looks milder though and less drizzle.

Mid Atlantic should see opportunities for meaningful snow but it will be challenging this winter. Elevations should do better obviously. La Nina can be tough on the Washington region in winter and so many things need to line up, especially with all the moving parts and climate change helping to muck things up.

[yoda]

Saw this up in the SNE thread.  Hope it's okay to post in here

2 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

My top analogs for 2024-2025.  Mixed bag for DC.  I think Boston did pretty well during these winters.  Good luck guys.  

36-37, 79-80, 88-89, 01-02, 11-12

 

2 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

I remember 07-08 up there. SWFE for days and days

I've been looking at specific Nov-Dec analogs, and I think I like Nov-Dec 1973 the best.  Pretty decent in DC.  Not sure how you all fared.

 

[yoda]

2 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

It is, but I'm trolling them.  I know it isnt obvious looking at the post, but all the winters mentioned were awful for Boston.  And in Nov-Dec 73 they were shut out.  Silly inside jokey stuff that a handful of posters there will get.  We've been on these forums for 25 years now.  We have to keep it fun, especially now that it no longer snows in DC.  

This is true... or we get a random week to 10 days like last winter and then that's it.  I really hope we get some decent stuff this winter, but I'm prepared for a disappointment.