nmyers1204 Posted Wednesday at 10:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:29 PM 6 hours ago, 87storms said: One option is for me to get another jeep. I bought my last one in Nov '13 which was followed by a string of goat-level winters. Early Feb/Mar 2014, FRD got upwards of 20” in one storm. Was living in Wormans with two college buddies. My Wrangler was perfect to keep my parking space free. Never shoveled the spot and no one tried to park there due to depth. Oh the good days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Wednesday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:47 PM Don't weak Ninas tend to surprise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted yesterday at 01:21 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:21 AM 1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Don't weak Ninas tend to surprise? They can, but with a strongly negative PDO the surprises will be few and far between. Here’s hoping we get at least a couple of well-timed rogue southern track storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted yesterday at 01:39 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:39 AM 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: They can, but with a strongly negative PDO the surprises will be few and far between. Here’s hoping we get at least a couple of well-timed rogue southern track storms. Probably our best hope this year is a winter that's below normal for snow but not an absolute dumpster fire. Something like 8 to 14" in DC Metro and like 15"- 20" in NW burbs. One thing that gives me hope is if Canada is cold this year. A little easier for cold shots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted yesterday at 01:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:54 AM Early Feb/Mar 2014, FRD got upwards of 20” in one storm. Was living in Wormans with two college buddies. My Wrangler was perfect to keep my parking space free. Never shoveled the spot and no one tried to park there due to depth. Oh the good days!That 4x4 can really plow through snow, especially with the right tires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted yesterday at 02:15 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:15 AM 54 minutes ago, Terpeast said: They can, but with a strongly negative PDO the surprises will be few and far between. Here’s hoping we get at least a couple of well-timed rogue southern track storms. I know I get weenied for being too negative, but any realistic look at what's actually happening--notably that -PDO mixed with a nina--tells ya that there's just not much there. While nobody wants to toss a winter before it starts, if there were ever a year where doing that is perfectly logical, it's this one! The evidence is already there--we've got the current indices, and the liklihood of a positive surprise is low. Now eternal optimists for no other than reason than to just be, do you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted yesterday at 02:17 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:17 AM 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I know I get weenied for being too negative, but any realistic look at what's actually happening--notably that -PDO mixed with a nina--tells ya that there's just not much there. While nobody wants to toss a winter before it starts, if there were ever a year where doing that is perfectly logical, it's this one! The evidence is already there and the liklihood of a positive surprise is low. Now eternal optimists for no other than reason than to just be, do you I wrote off this winter and next winter months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted yesterday at 02:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:31 AM 9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I wrote off this winter and next winter months ago. Dang you went further than me, lol I mean yeah Ninas double dip (although I'd like to see examples of times when they didn't), and if we go into next with the same ol' -PDO with another nina then eh. Once we get +PDO at least it'll be something to watch to see how much of a factor the opposite has had on our winters. Of course there's warm pools and other dumb stuff in the pacific too, but what I hear from the better minds on here is that -PDO is an issue. Change that and we can watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago More and more it seems like we need a cooperative Pacific, otherwise we're praying for a rogue fluke event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years.... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years.... The good ole weather channel lol. Anyway. Very chilly out there. It's been a chilly October. 37 here in the forested South River watershed. Frost in the low spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 hours ago, dailylurker said: The good ole weather channel lol. Anyway. Very chilly out there. It's been a chilly October. 37 here in the forested South River watershed. Frost in the low spots. It's been a beautiful month and it reminds me a lot of October 2000. I've been wondering if 2000-2001 is in fact a decent analog... which means we're still screwed, but not for the reasons TWC thinks lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 22 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: It's been a beautiful month and it reminds me a lot of October 2000. I've been wondering if 2000-2001 is in fact a decent analog... which means we're still screwed, but not for the reasons TWC thinks lol Seasonal forecast are just farmer almanacs made by computers lol. We're going to have a good ole fashion climo winter and we're going to enjoy it for what it is. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scope1 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago I have the farmers almanac and it has a few opportunities for snow in February I’m pretty sure it has one opportunity around Presidents’ Day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: It's been a beautiful month and it reminds me a lot of October 2000. I've been wondering if 2000-2001 is in fact a decent analog... which means we're still screwed, but not for the reasons TWC thinks lol 2001 was a decent winter up here, but the 3 largest snowfalls that winter here were all very marginal. Two were rain to snow events and one was just wet snow the whole time. 2 of the 3 were mostly rain in DC/Baltimore. If you increase the temp at all...you can probably take away a significant % of that seasons snow up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 5 hours ago, Weather Will said: Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years.... Chuck finally got a job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 6 hours ago, aldie 22 said: Chuck finally got a job? This is my Winter forecast for 2024-25 I do think we will have colder periods, but some of the warm spikes will be extreme +departure days, skewing the overall warmer. So, more variation/volatility vs a constant pattern. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This is my Winter forecast for 2024-25 I expect this year’s panic room thread to be a busy one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 21 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I expect this year’s panic room thread to be a busy one. It shouldn't be. Like we're starting from very, VERY little to no potential here. So wherein lie the panic? Lol Now, I'm sure the "What's wrong with our winters" thread will be jumpin' though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Just get ready for another 6 months worth of November in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 43 minutes ago, peribonca said: Just get ready for another 6 months worth of November in a row. Pretty much. Even the most optimistic poster here can't really color this better as far as snow is concerned, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 13 hours ago, Weather Will said: Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years.... That's like the one winter (2012-2013?) where JB went warm and dry and everyone knew it was over in early December. 1 hour ago, peribonca said: Just get ready for another 6 months worth of November in a row. October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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