Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[psuhoffman]

On 10/10/2024 at 12:34 PM, Terpeast said:

Looking forward to seeing more details of your analysis. I’m curious about the distribution of snowfall when you say the mean prediction is 10.2”. Whether the median is also close to that, or whether one season is skewing the mean. 

In my case, my analog set was fairly balanced where the median was close to the mean, with one outlier on the high side and one on low side. 

3 analogs were bunched between 10-14” with one high and low outlier (18” & 0”).  I’m tempted to toss the outliers but the 0 is also the most recent analog (22-23). That’s troubling.  
 

Once we get to November I’ll try to discern and rank these analogs more accurately. This was just a prelim identification of where we are now. But unless I see signs we are breaking out of the larger long wave pacific cycle we’ve been in since 2016 our upside is severely limited. There have been 3  similar comp cycles (including now) to this one.  Defined by me as deeply consistent -pdo overlapping a predominant +nao comprising 23 seasons.  I tend to focus much more on the long wave pattern identified by seasonal mean h5 that indexes.
 

But in all those years the largest snowfall seasons were 2 that made it into the 20s. But those both were Ninos. Among all the neutral and Nina seasons we’ve never cracked 20” at BWI during the 3 recorded similar cyles.  So the only thing that would  significantly alter this would be if there were signs the larger background state were about to change this winter. I don’t see signs of that yet. It could move some of the Nina looks more neutral and that brings some other analogs higher.  But the only thing that could significantly improve our expectations would be this most recent northern hemisphere long wave cycle ending. It’s damn near impossible to get a truly snowy winter in this phase. 

[psuhoffman]

@Terpeast I’m also glancing at pre 1950 data and it seems to support my idea of analogs working better if you can superimpose the larger hemisphere cycle. But it’s problematic because take a similar cycle in the early 1900s. First of all there is evidence the PDO is trending more negative during negative cycles lately. But also that was a much colder regime. So a 9 year period that produced a 17” avg at BWI seems ok but that’s coming off a period when BWIs avg was around 27”!   That 17” would be more like 12-14” today. And if the PDO is in fact increasing its variance maybe that knocks it down to 10”?  But in general I think the evidence is it’s really hard to get a truly snowy winter in this type cycle  

 

The only catch to this method is we can’t predict 100% when the cycle might flip and if it does quickly and unexpectedly obviously you bust on the edges of longer decadal cycle changes  all that to say if the solar cycle peak lingers and the PDO cycle does flip (we are kinda due) suddenly a year like 2014 isn’t crazy  

 

 

[psuhoffman]

Btw anyone want to chime in about something not getting much talk but that’s equally part of our recent snow issues.  The nao since the 1960s is trending more positive. There are up and down cycles but since the 60s each positive is more positive and each negative is less negative. The fact is our winter months are now in a positive nao state about 80% of the time. That’s a problem for our snow. 
 

I have a theory but I kinda want to hear other hypotheses 

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Good news sickos. In one month:

EURO OP is going to 360 hours.

Off hour runs are going all the way to 144.

Hopefully everybody's blood pressure med subscriptions are topped up.   

[stormy]

8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Predicting nina climo with a warmish background is a pretty safe and easy guess this year.  My problem with that is over the last 5-10 years there has been an against the grain longwave feature more often than not and few if any point it out in advance. Mega epos, ninos strangely behaving like Nina's and vice versa producing confusing periods of met winter, pac jets on meth, and all that jazz. 

So what's it going to be this year? What's the key unusual feature(s) that will rear its head? I'm not a big fan of right for the wrong reasons with snowfall. Personally, I'd much rather see a long ranger blow the snow side of forecast but nail the red headed stepchild in the upper levels. That's a show of deeper skills and ability to think critically no matter what books and other people say (IMHO only ofc). Far easier said than done but we're in a string of winters with unexpected dominent LW features. There seems to be a propensity to buck climo. Chaos or more volatile climate? Beats me but things going as planned seems to be no longer part of the plan. Hahaha lol

I'll take a crack at it....

No deep analysis here. Just intuition and observation. In a nutshell, I think the -epo is coming back. That doesn't mean easy snow without precise alignment. If anything it favors cold enough for snow but it doesn't want to snow lol. 

Below normal temps for DJF are never coming easy again for large swaths of the NH I don't think. Oceans are fighting that. But cold outbreaks in the east are always possible. I expect some in each month of DJF. 

Storm track is always a problem so it will be again but my intuition says there will be some setups that look more like a nino than a nina. A hangover of sorts. I don't expect an active or hibernating STJ but i do believe it will be present at times and briefly remind us of a nino.

Lastly, I have a hunch we get some blocking and it will include Dec. Doesn't mean cold and snow. Just means tracking won't be boring or hopeless. 

On the balance I believe this winter will continue being weird and make people scratch heads but in the end it will be acceptable. That's all I got. 

Bob: Thanks for your reasonable assessment. "Some setups more like a Nino than a Nina" , carries intelligence. You by yourself could easily make this board reasonable.........................

As usual, PSU is a total failure.............. He has an amazing fan-base with nothing but crap......  Nothing more need be said.................

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Btw anyone want to chime in about something not getting much talk but that’s equally part of our recent snow issues.  The nao since the 1960s is trending more positive. There are up and down cycles but since the 60s each positive is more positive and each negative is less negative. The fact is our winter months are now in a positive nao state about 80% of the time. That’s a problem for our snow. 
 

I have a theory but I kinda want to hear other hypotheses 

The problem with the NAO is it's partially calculated over our area. It's pressure difference between higher latitude and the mid-latitudes, so when we have colder weather/trough, it's coinciding with more -nao. That's part of the reason why it's been so positive for the last 10+ years.. we have been in a mid-latitude warm pattern. H5 over Greenland is a better way to measure an independent index. That's what I wish the CPC would do, since they have correlation composite maps based on index state - the last few Winter's we have seen some good Greenland blocking, that has been very close to +NAO, because the SE ridge was occurring at the same time. 

I would say the problem is the Pacific Ocean. A theory is that the Solar Min 2004-2022 creates more High pressure out there from La Nina conditions, and the major solar spike, giving us 8 Greenland trough periods so far in 2024 (when it was 3 such events in the last 4 years), may be the start of an overall pattern change.. 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, stormy said:

Bob: Thanks for your reasonable assessment. "Some setups more like a Nino than a Nina" , carries intelligence. You by yourself could easily make this board reasonable.........................

As usual, PSU is a total failure.............. He has an amazing fan-base with nothing but crap......  Nothing more need be said.................

Are you ok?  This doesn’t seem healthy. Whatever I did to you I’m sorry.  I know we’ve had disagreements and debates but I don’t know you, it’s not personal, and I wish you no ill will.  

[GaWx]

20 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Btw anyone want to chime in about something not getting much talk but that’s equally part of our recent snow issues.  The nao since the 1960s is trending more positive. There are up and down cycles but since the 60s each positive is more positive and each negative is less negative. The fact is our winter months are now in a positive nao state about 80% of the time. That’s a problem for our snow. 
 

I have a theory but I kinda want to hear other hypotheses 

Only 6 of the last 45 winters averaged -NAO (sub -0.25): 1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-1, and 2020-1. All 6 had averaged sunspots under 35 and were within about 2 years of solar cycle minimums. Coincidence? Some feel there is a partial negative correlation of winter -NAO and winter sunspots. I’m leaning that way.

[stormy]

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Are you ok?  This doesn’t seem healthy. Whatever I did to you I’m sorry.  I know we’ve had disagreements and debates but I don’t know you, it’s not personal, and I wish you no ill will.  

PSU, I do apologize.  I already had a short fuse for other reasons. Bill Murray was the straw that broke the camels back. My criticism was ill conceived without properly digesting your other posts before and after Bill Murray.

You and I have had an interesting interaction for a few years, sometimes like mixing sae 30 and water. 

I must say that I am impressed with your lean so far this fall. More on long-range cycles and less on all warm all the time.

I have started work on my winter outlook. Yours is amazingly close to mine from 60 years of analogues.  

Have a good day!!

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, stormy said:

PSU, I do apologize.  I already had a short fuse for other reasons. Bill Murray was the straw that broke the camels back. My criticism was ill conceived without properly digesting your other posts before and after Bill Murray.

You and I have had an interesting interaction for a few years, sometimes like mixing sae 30 and water. 

I must say that I am impressed with your lean so far this fall. More on long-range cycles and less on all warm all the time.

I have started work on my winter outlook. Yours is amazingly close to mine from 60 years of analogues.  

Have a good day!!

Honestly I’ve posted that clip multiple times over the years when people ask for a prediction. It’s a running joke. I’m sorry if it came off as an insult, I didn’t intend it that way. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly I’ve posted that clip multiple times over the years when people ask for a prediction. It’s a running joke. I’m sorry if it came off as an insult, I didn’t intend it that way. 

Don't apologize. Literally no one else would have a problem with it, and 'getting' the intent of it.

[ravensrule]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Don't apologize. Literally no one else would have a problem with it, and 'getting' the intent of it.

If it doesn't snow this winter, we may need some armed guards in here. 

[stormy]

13 hours ago, CAPE said:

Don't apologize. Literally no one else would have a problem with it, and 'getting' the intent of it.

CAPE, try to understand, when I peruse this site, I'm usually skimming through without looking at or paying attention to  nonsense or jokes. 

 If a joke is directed at a post of mine, I pay attention. I very rarely direct a post toward another person unless it is 95% positive and designed to be helpful. People who know me understand how helpful I can be.

I sincerely appreciate the tone of PSU's  response. Please don't put it down with more nonsense.

Nothing would please me more than to be friends with PSU.

[Eskimo Joe]

On 10/4/2024 at 6:34 PM, WxUSAF said:

 Not sure how other factors looked, but I’d take a 10-11 winter again in a hot second as Ninas go. Cold winter and around 20” IMBY. 

Yes that was a solid winter.

[87storms]

2025/26 is gonna be legit.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

2025/26 is gonna be legit.

Not necessarily...you know all these ninas double dip (or worse) now, lol

[87storms]

Not necessarily...you know all these ninas double dip (or worse) now, lol

You ain’t lying. I’d like to see a solid winter. We’re due, but we sure aren’t in a great pattern for storms rn. The monthly enso ppt shows nina kicking in now basically through winter.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

2025/26 is gonna be legit.

Very much fwiw: last 2 CANSIPS run show Modoki El Niño forming next summer.

[Weather Will]

Last year reminded me of an important tenet, don't trust any model more than 5 days out....H5, analogs, weeklies, etc.  We need three well timed shortwaves with freezing temperatures to make most people happy.  We will know how it works out in 5 months.  My gut tells me this year may hold a pleasant surprise in these five months, but I would not bet my 401k on it!

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Isn't the predominantly -NAO in October a good sign for the upcoming winter?

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Very much fwiw: last 2 CANSIPS run show Modoki El Niño forming next summer.

I'd be shocked. I actually don't remember the last nina that DIDN'T double-dip...

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd be shocked. I actually don't remember the last nina that DIDN'T double-dip...

Been quite awhile. 2005-6, which followed El Niño, didn’t double and then was followed by El Niño. Prior to that, 1963-4, 64-5, 65-6 (Nino, Niña, Nino).

[IronTy]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Been quite awhile. 2005-6, which followed El Niño, didn’t double and then was followed by El Niño. Prior to that, 1963-4, 64-5, 65-6 (Nino, Niña, Nino).

I made a snow fort on my driveway that winter so it must've been half way decent.  I also think we had a frigid snow that year with crazy ratios.  

[clskinsfan]

On 10/12/2024 at 1:57 PM, psuhoffman said:

Btw anyone want to chime in about something not getting much talk but that’s equally part of our recent snow issues.  The nao since the 1960s is trending more positive. There are up and down cycles but since the 60s each positive is more positive and each negative is less negative. The fact is our winter months are now in a positive nao state about 80% of the time. That’s a problem for our snow. 
 

I have a theory but I kinda want to hear other hypotheses 

I am wondering how much the whacky sst's are effecting the NAO? The Mid Atlantic has had a persistent cold pool with areas to the north warmer than normal. I am of the opinion that is effecting our normal winter baroclinic zone at least. And hence storm tracks. 

[SnowGoose69]

20 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Isn't the predominantly -NAO in October a good sign for the upcoming winter?

Recently it has not worked.  October in 2006 2012 2013 2014 2019 2021 2023 all were very negative and the winters were positive.  It seems lately you want October to maybe average less negative if the winter is going to be negative.  October 2020 it was only slightly negative but honestly we've had so few negative NAO winters lately who knows if its reliable

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Recently it has not worked.  October in 2006 2012 2013 2014 2019 2021 2023 all were very negative and the winters were positive.  It seems lately you want October to maybe average less negative if the winter is going to be negative.  October 2020 it was only slightly negative but honestly we've had so few negative NAO winters lately who knows if its reliable

October NAO actually has a negative correlation to Jan-Feb-March, going back to 1948. 

[Terpeast]

If the models are correct, the NAO will be positive for the rest of the month and may actually finish neutral to slight positive for this October.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

If the models are correct, the NAO will be positive for the rest of the month and may actually finish neutral to slight positive for this October.

NAO (NAO)

NAA-AA-AO (NAA-AA-AO)

Nao blue and it won't snow hommmme...

[Maestrobjwa]

This winter it's impossible to habe a bad surprise. There aren't any of those left! (Outside of a numerically picky 0.0" for lowest record you can have). We've seen it all, done it all...

[87storms]

15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

NAO (NAO)

NAA-AA-AO (NAA-AA-AO)

Nao blue and it won't snow hommmme...

One option is for me to get another jeep.  I bought my last one in Nov '13 which was followed by a string of goat-level winters.