Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[Terpeast]

I’m a little more optimistic than the worst case scenarios, more like 7-10” for DC and west, 4-7” SE (similar to Don S’s thoughts). Could really happen in one storm and then that’s all she wrote. 

Could also be a <4” shutout but I think this season will have a surprise curveball or two for us. 

[winter_warlock]

21 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I’m a little more optimistic than the worst case scenarios, more like 7-10” for DC and west, 4-7” SE (similar to Don S’s thoughts). Could really happen in one storm and then that’s all she wrote. 

Could also be a <4” shutout but I think this season will have a surprise curveball or two for us. 

 I think it will be a normal winter  for most. Not too far from the normal snowfall  for most.  Maybe a little less but nothing like the snowless winter we had a couple years ago.  But.  Winter predictions. Almost never pan out lol always a wait and see.  It's hard enough for modeling to predict a week out , let alone 3 months!!! Lol

[Deck Pic]

On 11/13/2024 at 7:04 AM, WxUSAF said:

CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. 

I was really tempted to just say it would be a hot winter lol and present no data.  But I guess Jason wanted something more

I use analogs pretty loosely.  I will say they were grouped very close together for Feb.  All 4 were below normal vs 91-2020 norms. Feb 2006 would be a -1.4 today but it was slightly above norm at the time.  So I'm curious if I stumbled on to something there. 

as far as snow, maybe bullish vs conventional wisdom?  

I think I referenced 2018-19 (19" imby) and 2021-22 (15" imby) as benchmarks.   It's not like we have to go back to the pleistocine era to find a half decent above median winter.  Of course it could totally shit the bed and not a single person would be surprised lol, but doesn't look like a total dud to me

[Deck Pic]

On 11/15/2024 at 4:28 PM, Terpeast said:

I’m a little more optimistic than the worst case scenarios, more like 7-10” for DC and west, 4-7” SE (similar to Don S’s thoughts). Could really happen in one storm and then that’s all she wrote. 

Could also be a <4” shutout but I think this season will have a surprise curveball or two for us. 

persistence seasonal forecasting isn't the worst way for us lol.  It pretty much works every summer to ignore all data and just go above normal.  

But I think sometimes we all forget it can snow here.  I thought the back to back 4"ers in January were pretty cool. We just need to be able to be generate one other snowy period.  A couple 1-3" events for me and one 4-8" and all the sudden I'm nearing a 20" winter.  And you quite a bit more.  getting a december snow would be nice, but it's just too elusive these days to expect anything

 

 

 

[bncho]

14 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

persistence seasonal forecasting isn't the worst way for us lol.  It pretty much works every summer to ignore all data and just go above normal.  

But I think sometimes we all forget it can snow here.  I thought the back to back 4"ers in January were pretty cool. We just need to be able to be generate one other snowy period.  A couple 1-3" events for me and one 4-8" and all the sudden I'm nearing a 20" winter.  And you quite a bit more.  getting a december snow would be nice, but it's just too elusive these days to expect anything

 

 

 

Agreed. This isn't scientific or anything, but SOMETHING has to give. If we get two different 1-2 week periods of cold and snow, who knows what'll happen.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I did some analysis of weak la nina years and a corresponding -NAO. Enjoy!

[psuhoffman]

Sorry I was I wrong thread. @brooklynwx99Wrt 2014, we will know very soon. 2014 tipped its cap very early. As soon as the first cold period hit those waves started to target south of 40 which is very unusual. If in the next few weeks one of these waves actually flush hits somewhere south of 40 my radar will be up. But if they all end up sliding by frustratingly close but to our north…well that’s how those other colder -enso years went. 

[psuhoffman]

I will put my full bias on the table...2009 is my top analog and it was by far my least favorite winter EVER.  Because it was generally cold for long stretches, at least a cold enough pattern to snow...and it did snow a decent amount just to our north, so I was tracking and invested and watching every freaking wave, and almost nothing came of any of them.  Yea I got slightly more snow that winter than a few others (but other than a bunch of 1" evens it was all from one March storm), but those years the pattern was no hope awful and I just checked out, 2009 was the biggest waste of my time for little return of any winter.  

[Terpeast]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I will put my full bias on the table...2009 is my top analog and it was by far my least favorite winter EVER.  Because it was generally cold for long stretches, at least a cold enough pattern to snow...and it did snow a decent amount just to our north, so I was tracking and invested and watching every freaking wave, and almost nothing came of any of them.  Yea I got slightly more snow that winter than a few others (but other than a bunch of 1" evens it was all from one March storm), but those years the pattern was no hope awful and I just checked out, 2009 was the biggest waste of my time for little return of any winter.  

2008-09 is indeed one of my analogs for this winter. Even with all the brouhaha over the upcoming pattern and the stalling “nina”, my thoughts about this winter haven’t changed. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

2008-09 is indeed one of my analogs for this winter. Even with all the brouhaha over the upcoming pattern and the stalling “nina”, my thoughts about this winter haven’t changed. 

I see the reason for the hype, there are some similarities to 2013/14 and the pattern looks fairly good coming up. The problem is that the same can be said of most of the other analogs that didn’t lead to much snow.   Look at the patter late November in 2008. Perfect march also.  This type of pattern has only ever really worked in a cold enso or neutral season once.  Since we don’t have reliable records far ending back I can’t say if it was a 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 type fluke but I can say it was an outlier result and not one I’d want to bet on repeating in any one given similar season. The more likely outcome is the less exciting one unfortunately. But y’all know I’m rooting for it. I didn’t see 2014 coming either. 

[notvirga!]

Was 08-09 the infamous “40 north winter” where a lot of stuff looked good but only ended up up being decent for those north of 40 degree latitude? 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2009 would be almost identical to last year overall for D.C.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, BTRWx&#x27;s Thanks Giving said:

2009 would be almost identical to last year overall for D.C.

I’d argue last year was better. A good week of winter. 2009 almost all the snow fell in one March storm and melted the next day. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, notvirga! said:

Was 08-09 the infamous “40 north winter” where a lot of stuff looked good but only ended up up being decent for those north of 40 degree latitude? 

That’s almost every “cold” Nina. 

[psuhoffman]

Seriously that could be describing like 10 years in the last 20 and most were cold neutral or Nina years. But I know 2009 there was a sharp gradient near 40 where snow went from way below to near and slightly above normal. It wasn’t amazing to our north. Philly had 23” which is slightly above avg. NYC had 27” also a little above avg.  There were no major storms but several minor to moderate events went just to our north during several cold periods in Dec-Feb. We got all our snow from one storm early March. 

[Ji]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Seriously that could be describing like 10 years in the last 20 and most were cold neutral or Nina years. But I know 2009 there was a sharp gradient near 40 where snow went from way below to near and slightly above normal. It wasn’t amazing to our north. Philly had 23” which is slightly above avg. NYC had 27” also a little above avg.  There were no major storms but several minor to moderate events went just to our north during several cold periods in Dec-Feb. We got all our snow from one storm early March. 

maybe we will have one of those head scratching winters that dont make any sense but we take

[winter_warlock]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

maybe we will have one of those head scratching winters that dont make any sense but we take

After the last few winters we've had ill take it lol

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Ji said:

maybe we will have one of those head scratching winters that dont make any sense but we take

It’s possible. At this time in 2013 I didn’t expect what was about to happen. I was expecting another 2008-9 type year then also. It definitely happens sometimes. But it’s not something I bet on. A lot of forecasting is just playing probability