Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation


CAPE
 Share

Recommended Posts

On 11/6/2024 at 7:56 PM, cbmclean said:

I think our only hope, and it's a long shot, is some sort of odd interaction between the anomalous PDO and the QBO that might lead to the poleward expansion of the C Pac ridge, leading to this being one of the "good Ninas" you have mentioned.  Even then though we would be fighting against cold-dry/warm-wet.  But I'd rather have that than a 6 month fall.

It's possible, there are no analogs this extreme.  You have to go back to the 1800s to find anything close to this level of -PDO.  And I doubt we can even take much from what happened then given how much things have changed.  Overcoming a hostile pacific was a lot easier in the significantly colder climate of the 1800s.  

More recently we had an extremely (not to this level though) -PDO heading into 2022 and that turned out "ok".  I would take a repeat of that winter in heartbeat right now.  It could be much much MUCH worse!  

  • Like 5
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Fwiw the Euro and GEFS extended both break down the AK trough and have a ridge developing there(EPO space) early-mid December, with a TPV lobe developing further SE towards northern Hudson Bay.

 

That would work and also possibly build a bridge over the Top and suppress that lobe further South.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The week leading up to Xmas per the latest Euro extended. For shits and giggles ofc.
This is the general h5 look that has been depicted for awhile now on seasonal guidance at certain points during upcoming winter, specifically the CFS.
1734998400-psy757axz5w.png

We could be back in a favorable mjo phase by then 9ce60d940cd75df485a11a6820c2c307.jpg
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, CAPE said:

The week leading up to Xmas per the latest Euro extended. For shits and giggles ofc.

This is the general h5 look that has been depicted for awhile now on seasonal guidance at certain points during upcoming winter, specifically the CFS.

1734998400-psy757axz5w.png

Yeah, that’s the beginning of the time frame that I’m interested in. Around then through roughly mid Jan, depending on the MJO

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yah, if I get the 20-28 inches he is forecasting around Frederick will be very happy!

I thought he went a bit high in our areas, but I’m in on snow this year…so will take it as well. With temps looking suspect, I think one of the bigger question marks is whether we’ll have enough storms to roll the dice on.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

obviously, take with a grain of salt, but it doesn't hurt to see ridging setting up over the WC/AK at the end of November on longer range guidance

no real snow risk here, just bodes well IMO

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-2665600.thumb.png.48110909950637cfac9c57165a9c0f36.png

Anything other than a pig AK vortex or a Pacific Doom Blob is a win this year.  

Also just getting cooler air injected into NA would be nice.  We've learned the hard way that a cool November doesn't necessarily translate to DJF, but I believe that November torches start us even further behind the 8-ball than normal.  As an example, take 20122-22 where we had the first solid period of December -NAO in a decade but it accomplished bupkis because the entire continent had been torched in November and once blocking started in December it was just blocking in mild air. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Nice job. That’s a ton of work. I think you’re in the right ballpark for our area. Hoping we get a 2-3 week period of real winter at some point (probably January as you say) and then maybe a couple flukes outside that if we’re really lucky. But don’t think anyone would be shocked with nearly wall to wall bikini weather.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. 

i can definitely see that happening. there are reasons to believe this could actually be a decent to good winter. 2013-14, 2020-21, and 2021-22 are all good analogs

i just don't think anyone has the balls (including myself personally or professionally) to actually pull the trigger. better to go conservative in this -PDO regime and bust low

  • Like 4
  • 100% 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

i can definitely see that happening. there are reasons to believe this could actually be a decent to good winter

i just don't think anyone has the balls (including myself personally or professionally) to actually pull the trigger. better to go conservative in this -PDO regime and bust low

Yea, I have gotten myself into trouble forecasting upside chases too much lately, so I couldn't do it again....but I see a path.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...