soadforecasterx Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 funny i did see long long range models hint at this type of set up. first bit of hope. i know it will be gone next run but good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 On 11/6/2024 at 7:56 PM, cbmclean said: I think our only hope, and it's a long shot, is some sort of odd interaction between the anomalous PDO and the QBO that might lead to the poleward expansion of the C Pac ridge, leading to this being one of the "good Ninas" you have mentioned. Even then though we would be fighting against cold-dry/warm-wet. But I'd rather have that than a 6 month fall. It's possible, there are no analogs this extreme. You have to go back to the 1800s to find anything close to this level of -PDO. And I doubt we can even take much from what happened then given how much things have changed. Overcoming a hostile pacific was a lot easier in the significantly colder climate of the 1800s. More recently we had an extremely (not to this level though) -PDO heading into 2022 and that turned out "ok". I would take a repeat of that winter in heartbeat right now. It could be much much MUCH worse! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 9 Author Share Posted November 9 Fwiw the Euro and GEFS extended both break down the AK trough and have a ridge developing there(EPO space) early-mid December, with a TPV lobe developing further SE towards northern Hudson Bay. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Fwiw the Euro and GEFS extended both break down the AK trough and have a ridge developing there(EPO space) early-mid December, with a TPV lobe developing further SE towards northern Hudson Bay. That would work and also possibly build a bridge over the Top and suppress that lobe further South. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 10 Author Share Posted November 10 The week leading up to Xmas per the latest Euro extended. For shits and giggles ofc. This is the general h5 look that has been depicted for awhile now on seasonal guidance at certain points during upcoming winter, specifically the CFS. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 The week leading up to Xmas per the latest Euro extended. For shits and giggles ofc. This is the general h5 look that has been depicted for awhile now on seasonal guidance at certain points during upcoming winter, specifically the CFS.We could be back in a favorable mjo phase by then 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 12 hours ago, CAPE said: The week leading up to Xmas per the latest Euro extended. For shits and giggles ofc. This is the general h5 look that has been depicted for awhile now on seasonal guidance at certain points during upcoming winter, specifically the CFS. Yeah, that’s the beginning of the time frame that I’m interested in. Around then through roughly mid Jan, depending on the MJO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 Yeah, that’s the beginning of the time frame that I’m interested in. Around then through roughly mid Jan, depending on the MJOWe’ll probably get 20-30 inches between mid December and late January. Buckle up! 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 This is the year we get a Dec. 5th storm back. And then we’re blanked for the rest of the year. 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 I just want a non blow torch Xmas. It ain’t even gotta snow. Lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 Maybe -PDO has at least cooled off from record levels? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Maybe -PDO has at least cooled off from record levels? It would be so fitting for our collective boom prediction bust last year to be followed up with our collective dreg prediction busting. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 Kammerer went a little below average, but respectable snow totals for a La Niña. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: Kammerer went a little below average, but respectable snow totals for a La Niña. Yah, if I get the 20-28 inches he is forecasting around Frederick will be very happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 Yah, if I get the 20-28 inches he is forecasting around Frederick will be very happy!I thought he went a bit high in our areas, but I’m in on snow this year…so will take it as well. With temps looking suspect, I think one of the bigger question marks is whether we’ll have enough storms to roll the dice on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 1 hour ago, 87storms said: Kammerer went a little below average, but respectable snow totals for a La Niña. Hard to trust him after last winter's debacle. But then again, everyone was off base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 FWIW, WBAL in Baltimore going with 15” seasonal total for BWI. That would certainly be in the “good Niña” category. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 obviously, take with a grain of salt, but it doesn't hurt to see ridging setting up over the WC/AK at the end of November on longer range guidance no real snow risk here, just bodes well IMO 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: obviously, take with a grain of salt, but it doesn't hurt to see ridging setting up over the WC/AK at the end of November on longer range guidance no real snow risk here, just bodes well IMO Anything other than a pig AK vortex or a Pacific Doom Blob is a win this year. Also just getting cooler air injected into NA would be nice. We've learned the hard way that a cool November doesn't necessarily translate to DJF, but I believe that November torches start us even further behind the 8-ball than normal. As an example, take 20122-22 where we had the first solid period of December -NAO in a decade but it accomplished bupkis because the entire continent had been torched in November and once blocking started in December it was just blocking in mild air. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Really! My Goodness............................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nice job. That’s a ton of work. I think you’re in the right ballpark for our area. Hoping we get a 2-3 week period of real winter at some point (probably January as you say) and then maybe a couple flukes outside that if we’re really lucky. But don’t think anyone would be shocked with nearly wall to wall bikini weather. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Generally agree, but think more WPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. The below normal Feb temp forecast stood out..when did we last have that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 7 minutes ago, Paleocene said: The below normal Feb temp forecast stood out..when did we last have that?? 54 years ago I think 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. There are def. signs of a better north Pacific...I would bet my life that is what is driving some of these doomsday deviations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall. i can definitely see that happening. there are reasons to believe this could actually be a decent to good winter. 2013-14, 2020-21, and 2021-22 are all good analogs i just don't think anyone has the balls (including myself personally or professionally) to actually pull the trigger. better to go conservative in this -PDO regime and bust low 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: i can definitely see that happening. there are reasons to believe this could actually be a decent to good winter i just don't think anyone has the balls (including myself personally or professionally) to actually pull the trigger. better to go conservative in this -PDO regime and bust low Yea, I have gotten myself into trouble forecasting upside chases too much lately, so I couldn't do it again....but I see a path. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now