EastCoast NPZ Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 Calling it right now. This is the year we hit 80F in December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted November 2 Share Posted November 2 1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Calling it right now. This is the year we hit 80F in December. Every single month will have an 80+ reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 On 10/26/2024 at 3:01 PM, MDstorm said: The anomalously dry Fall continues. The last time we had such a dry Fall was in 1963. If only that analog worked out for the upcoming winter It appeared somewhere else also i I think that was last time DCA had 6”+ all 4 months DJFM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 So many tried and true methods have struggled and me too. I think this winter will be a bit better than last. Like maybe two weeks of winter and not just one. No garish 1-5” wipe out but 12-15” seems right 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 14 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Calling it right now. This is the year we hit 80F in December. 24 or 25th. Money in the bank 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 On 10/28/2024 at 7:09 PM, Terpeast said: Has Ji ever canceled winter this early in October? Climate change. He cancels even earlier than he did back in the day. Our old Ji analogues for canceling the season don't apply anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Just some fun speculation… maybe Feb will be the cold month this time? Not the first time CFS hinted this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 55 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Just some fun speculation… maybe Feb will be the cold month this time? Not the first time CFS hinted this Thought Ninas were front loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4 Author Share Posted November 4 24 minutes ago, frd said: Thought Ninas were front loaded. Not recently. Best periods have been early Jan (2017-18) and also late winter- March 2018. Also much of Jan 2022, with multiple snow events. The CFS has been pretty consistent with the -EPO idea, esp for the mid to latter part of winter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Not recently. Best periods have been early Jan (2017-18) and also late winter- March 2018. Also much of Jan 2022, with multiple snow events. The CFS has been pretty consistent with the -EPO idea, esp for the mid to latter part of winter. 22-23 the only remotely workable pattern we got was mid-late December and we missed on the big storm that kicked it off. And that was all she wrote… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 22-23 the only remotely workable pattern we got was mid-late December and we missed on the big storm that kicked it off. And that was all she wrote… Oh, you mean the 30 minutes of a cold blast right before Christmas, that only slightly interrupted very warm conditions before and after!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 22-23 the only remotely workable pattern we got was mid-late December and we missed on the big storm that kicked it off. And that was all she wrote… Jan 3, 2022- 8 inches of snow and drifting. Jan 7, 2022 - 3 inches snow. Jan. 17, 2022 - 8.5 inches snow. Jan. 28 - 1.3" snow Feb. 13 - 2.0" snow March 12 - 3.0" snow 21-22 gave me above normal snowfall !! How about this, guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: Just some fun speculation… maybe Feb will be the cold month this time? Not the first time CFS hinted this I can see it now. The Feb long range will be called “Feb will be rocking!” for a third year in a row and it’ll be yet another rug pull instead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 By now it seems 09-10 must have been a dream. Nina? Pinta? Heck, I'm praying to Santa María. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 4 hours ago, frd said: Thought Ninas were front loaded. This may not even qualify as a nina if ONI stays weak, even though MEI/RONI are already in nina territory. both Nov and Dec look torchy, and I don’t see any decent chances for wintry weather in the MA until late Dec and thereafter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 5 hours ago, Terpeast said: Just some fun speculation… maybe Feb will be the cold month this time? Not the first time CFS hinted this That may be the case. Winter pf 1971-72 comes to mind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 This may not even qualify as a nina if ONI stays weak, even though MEI/RONI are already in nina territory. both Nov and Dec look torchy, and I don’t see any decent chances for wintry weather in the MA until late Dec and thereafter. There is a chance mjo goes into favorable phase by Dec 20. The pattern can’t stay like this forever. Cfs has flipped between liking January and February almost daily lol but most runs like one month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1853821333211127925?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1853821333211127925?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5ANobody cares. After last year…this is a 2-3 weeks out business 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Nobody cares. After last year…this is a 2-3 weeks out business Pssh not even that long...Day 10 at the latest! We saw can kicks happen two weeks out...so you almost wonder if it's better to just go from discreet threat to discreet threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Pssh not even that long...Day 10 at the latest! We saw can kicks happen two weeks out...so you almost wonder if it's better to just go from discreet threat to discreet threat! thats how i am approaching this winter. ensembles out to 360 hours. We are currently in the hide the kids and shut the blinds mode. We got 40 days to fix this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 October PDO -3.81, lowest monthly reading going back 170 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 53 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: October PDO -3.81, lowest monthly reading going back 170 years. Where can you find data on monthly/daily PDO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 22 hours ago, Ji said: Nobody cares. After last year…this is a 2-3 weeks out business I care; if we've lost "Big Vodka Cold Joe", it's a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 12 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Where can you find data on monthly/daily PDO? I found this link for monthly. Doesn;t include October yet though https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 32 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Where can you find data on monthly/daily PDO? https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ "view data" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 On 11/4/2024 at 8:49 PM, Ji said: There is a chance mjo goes into favorable phase by Dec 20. The pattern can’t stay like this forever. Cfs has flipped between liking January and February almost daily lol but most runs like one month No, but it will probably stay mostly this way until the PDO comes back towards less ridiculous territory and there is no sign of that happening at all. If the PDO were to actually stay in the -3 area all winter I could see this being a no winter year. Not just no snow...but a winter that is just a prolonged October with highs in 60s many days. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No, but it will probably stay mostly this way until the PDO comes back towards less ridiculous territory and there is no sign of that happening at all. If the PDO were to actually stay in the -3 area all winter I could see this being a no winter year. Not just no snow...but a winter that is just a prolonged October with highs in 60s many days. You mean it needs to be cold for it to snow? Until we get a seasonable pattern and actual storms, it's logically challenging to argue with your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 I did an analog composite for the warmest Oct-Nov's on record for the CONUS (this year could be #1) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: No, but it will probably stay mostly this way until the PDO comes back towards less ridiculous territory and there is no sign of that happening at all. If the PDO were to actually stay in the -3 area all winter I could see this being a no winter year. Not just no snow...but a winter that is just a prolonged October with highs in 60s many days. I think our only hope, and it's a long shot, is some sort of odd interaction between the anomalous PDO and the QBO that might lead to the poleward expansion of the C Pac ridge, leading to this being one of the "good Ninas" you have mentioned. Even then though we would be fighting against cold-dry/warm-wet. But I'd rather have that than a 6 month fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now