Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[MDstorm]

The anomalously dry Fall continues.  The last time we had such a dry Fall was in 1963.  If only that analog worked out for the upcoming winter 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, MDstorm said:

The anomalously dry Fall continues.  The last time we had such a dry Fall was in 1963.  If only that analog worked out for the upcoming winter 

Up here we are dating back to 1874 in regards to the dryness.  I am willing to bet it snowed in 1874?

[JenkinsJinkies]

Found this in New York metro: 

 

 

The part I'd like to quote is:

"The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025."

 

This winter could be historically bad... so bad that my snowfall prediction might be too optimistic...

 

[KAOS]

During the winter of 2016-2017 in Pasadena, MD (ZIP code 21122), the total snowfall was approximately 22.29 centimeters (8.77 inches).

[KAOS]

During the winter of 2022-2023 in Pasadena, MD (ZIP code 21122), the total snowfall was approximately 14.77 centimeters (5.81 inches).

[stormy]

Its the most wonderful time of the year!!!  A time when speculation is high for the coming winter.

This year, our glee is low because of a coming La Nina winter......... Last year it was high because of El Nino............  What did that amount to ????

I have researched analogues for the past 70 years and I have to believe that we will have another low snowfall winter............  Do I believe we can simply blame it on La Nina or other Nonsense? No

I have also identified a bias toward a dry La Nina winter.

At least one other factor as stressed by PSU is the PDO.

I have identified 7 analogues back to 1955.

The CPC suggests that a Dynamic/Statistical blend for the coming winter will be -.6 to -.7.

This is based on my location which receives an average of 24 inches of snow and 15.45 inches of rain from November through March.

We begin with 2023 which averaged - 6.3 La Nina, I received 1.5 inches of snow and 14.21 precip. Low snow and Precip..

2001- 6.33 La Nina, 5.5 inches snow and 10.52 precip. Low snow and precip.

1984 - 6.33 La Nina, 10.0 inches snow and 25.72 precip. Above normal precip.

1975 - 5.6 La Nina, 9.8" snow, 12 .66 precip. Low snow and precip.

1972 - 6.6 La Nina, 4.7" snow,, 9.05 precip.  Low snow and Precip.

1965  -5.6 La Nina, 24.5" snow and 14.37 Precip.  Mother Nature always found a way to snow during the  '60's. The PDO was -.90 in January of 65

1955 - .7, 13.1 " snow and 17.41 Precip.

86% of the time during the past 70 years we have had a low snowfall winter with a - .6 La Nina and 86% of the time we have had a dry winter.

My broad blend gives us 10 inches of snowfall during this coming winter..........................

[Jebman]

I say this winter in the DC Region will turn out to be more of an El Nino type. You will all get more snow than you might think.

[Ji]

The Euro weeklies look horrendous. The EPO that seemed to be shaping up for late November has been reversed. It dosent matter....a great pattern in November is still rain for me and Cape.....so hopefully the Shiiit pattern can reverse by Dec 20th.

 

im out

[Terpeast]

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

The Euro weeklies look horrendous. The EPO that seemed to be shaping up for late November has been reversed. It dosent matter....a great pattern in November is still rain for me and Cape.....so hopefully the Shiiit pattern can reverse by Dec 20th.

 

im out

Has Ji ever canceled winter this early in October? 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Has Ji ever canceled winter this early in October? 

And it’s the euro they’re basing it on, which lost its luster years ago.

[Chris78]

Pretty easy call for the snow fall contest this year at the 3 major airports in my opinion. 

Less than 5 " across the board.

If the PDO doesn't improve any we are  probably toast unfortunately. 

[CAPE]

Remember how persistently drool worthy the seasonal/extended products looked at h5 last year? How did that work out? So if they look 'crappy' now who cares? The Nino-Nina perceived outcome bias is real.

The PDO phase has been unfavorable for years, and yet we have managed winters with some decent snow despite that. Not likely to see above avg snowfall, so adjust expectations accordingly. Ofc a complete ratter is also possible (regardless of Enso state) these days.

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Has Ji ever canceled winter this early in October? 

October is actually pretty late. If we're staring down a Nina with a possible back to backer, he'll cancel 12+ months in advance.  

[peribonca]

Maybe this raging October Bermuda high will shift north and become a persistent-NAO... One can only wish

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

October is actually pretty late. If we're staring down a Nina with a possible back to backer, he'll cancel 12+ months in advance.  

Why do Ninas tend to repeat like that anyway? Annoying as heck!

[stormy]

14 hours ago, Jebman said:

I say this winter in the DC Region will turn out to be more of an El Nino type. You will all get more snow than you might think.

Yes, this could happen.

A good example for my area is November - March of 21-22 which averaged -1.0 La Nina.

I received 28.50 inches of snow compared to an average annual 24.00 inches.

[Jebman]

Seems like back where I actually lived in the DC Region, we did fairly well with Neutral ensos with snow.

[Jebman]

On 10/29/2024 at 7:05 AM, stormy said:

Yes, this could happen.

A good example for my area is November - March of 21-22 which averaged -1.0 La Nina.

I received 28.50 inches of snow compared to an average annual 24.00 inches.

It helps you are in western VA, at some elevation. Not as much trouble with the warming that comes off the Atlantic in some storms.

[stormy]

12 hours ago, Jebman said:

It helps you are in western VA, at some elevation. Not as much trouble with the warming that comes off the Atlantic in some storms.

You are exactly right!! That can make a huge difference.

I have received 6 - 8 inches of snow when Charlottesville nearly a thousand feet lower received only rain.  This has happened several times in memory.

April 7 & 8 of 1971 Afton Mt. 7 miles to my southeast at 1850 ft. received 17 inches of snow. My backyard at 1350 ft. received 8 inches of snow and Charlottesville at 400 ft. received mostly rain.

[Bob Chill]

On 10/29/2024 at 1:30 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Why do Ninas tend to repeat like that anyway? Annoying as heck!

Beats me but ninos do it in their own way too. Remember this, Nina's are a math calculation based on SSTAs in a specific (small but impactful) region of the Pacific. That's all they are. Sensible wx in various regions of the hemisphere are influenced by many other things. Second year "Nina's" are often just plain strange when you compare it to classic Nina weather. Ninos have hangovers no matter what enso does the second year. So it's not just Nina's.

We simply don't live in an area that gets back to back good snow years with few exceptions. Enso can't save us from that. Too much other stuff works against us by default (latitude). Nowadays, weather has been so volatile that old school thinking is no longer working. That's a big reason I don't engage during the fall much anymore. All that conventional thinking has been getting tossed by mid Dec as "real winter" shows up lol. 

Our snow climo has always kinda stunk. 70s and 80s werent really that different than today with weenie suicides. Us old timers like to memory compress the 70/80s. There were a few epic periods of snow and some epic cold but I wore no jacket to middle and high school quite often every winter. Early 80s were terrible except for Feb 83. Lots of warm. Lots of mixed or no frozen. Some epic cold with not a drop of precip and plenty of failed hopes and dreams. 

Big storms were really rare too. 79 was the first big storm I experienced in MD and my parents moved here in 72. After 1979, the next one was 83. I lived in MD for 11 years and only experienced 2 big storms. 95-96 and 02-03 individually destroyed the entire 11 year period lol. Now we expect big storms on the regular. Which isn't unreasonable because storms are clearly more energetic than 20+ years ago.

On the flip side, while we occasionally enjoy more energetic storms, there seems to be a shift away from old school 1-5" storms. Especially early season. Some of it is temp related but not all. Energetic NS shortwaves like clippers were a staple in MD for as long as I can remember but something shut off after 2015 and hasn't come back. Starting to think it's permanent and sure hope I'm wrong....

Winters in the dmv (for snowlovers) have been annoying as heck for the 40 years I lived through them and they will continue to be annoying long after I'm gone lol

 

 

[stormy]

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Beats me but ninos do it in their own way too. Remember this, Nina's are a math calculation based on SSTAs in a specific (small but impactful) region of the Pacific. That's all they are. Sensible wx in various regions of the hemisphere are influenced by many other things. Second year "Nina's" are often just plain strange when you compare it to classic Nina weather. Ninos have hangovers no matter what enso does the second year. So it's not just Nina's.

We simply don't live in an area that gets back to back good snow years with few exceptions. Enso can't save us from that. Too much other stuff works against us by default (latitude). Nowadays, weather has been so volatile that old school thinking is no longer working. That's a big reason I don't engage during the fall much anymore. All that conventional thinking has been getting tossed by mid Dec as "real winter" shows up lol. 

Our snow climo has always kinda stunk. 70s and 80s werent really that different than today with weenie suicides. Us old timers like to memory compress the 70/80s. There were a few epic periods of snow and some epic cold but I wore no jacket to middle and high school quite often every winter. Early 80s were terrible except for Feb 83. Lots of warm. Lots of mixed or no frozen. Some epic cold with not a drop of precip and plenty of failed hopes and dreams. 

Big storms were really rare too. 79 was the first big storm I experienced in MD and my parents moved here in 72. After 1979, the next one was 83. I lived in MD for 11 years and only experienced 2 big storms. 95-96 and 02-03 individually destroyed the entire 11 year period lol. Now we expect big storms on the regular. Which isn't unreasonable because storms are clearly more energetic than 20+ years ago.

On the flip side, while we occasionally enjoy more energetic storms, there seems to be a shift away from old school 1-5" storms. Especially early season. Some of it is temp related but not all. Energetic NS shortwaves like clippers were a staple in MD for as long as I can remember but something shut off after 2015 and hasn't come back. Starting to think it's permanent and sure hope I'm wrong....

Winters in the dmv (for snowlovers) have been annoying as heck for the 40 years I lived through them and they will continue to be annoying long after I'm gone lol

 

 

Thanks Bob!  I always enjoy reading your take on things.

My memories of lots of snow and lots of cold always take me back to the 60's in the Valley.  We frequently had skating ice on ponds and rivers in those days and usually plenty of snow for sleigh-riding down slopes and across frozen ponds with 6 - 8 inches of ice. 

But, we have had some good years since the 60's like 77-78 with 55" of snow.  79-80 with 49", 86-87 53",  09 - 10 with 63" and who could forget 95 - 96 with 63 inches of snow. Even 13 - 14 with 41 inches would be nice again.

It will happen again and probably when we least expect it long- range.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Beats me but ninos do it in their own way too. Remember this, Nina's are a math calculation based on SSTAs in a specific (small but impactful) region of the Pacific. That's all they are. Sensible wx in various regions of the hemisphere are influenced by many other things. Second year "Nina's" are often just plain strange when you compare it to classic Nina weather. Ninos have hangovers no matter what enso does the second year. So it's not just Nina's.

We simply don't live in an area that gets back to back good snow years with few exceptions. Enso can't save us from that. Too much other stuff works against us by default (latitude). Nowadays, weather has been so volatile that old school thinking is no longer working. That's a big reason I don't engage during the fall much anymore. All that conventional thinking has been getting tossed by mid Dec as "real winter" shows up lol. 

Our snow climo has always kinda stunk. 70s and 80s werent really that different than today with weenie suicides. Us old timers like to memory compress the 70/80s. There were a few epic periods of snow and some epic cold but I wore no jacket to middle and high school quite often every winter. Early 80s were terrible except for Feb 83. Lots of warm. Lots of mixed or no frozen. Some epic cold with not a drop of precip and plenty of failed hopes and dreams. 

Big storms were really rare too. 79 was the first big storm I experienced in MD and my parents moved here in 72. After 1979, the next one was 83. I lived in MD for 11 years and only experienced 2 big storms. 95-96 and 02-03 individually destroyed the entire 11 year period lol. Now we expect big storms on the regular. Which isn't unreasonable because storms are clearly more energetic than 20+ years ago.

On the flip side, while we occasionally enjoy more energetic storms, there seems to be a shift away from old school 1-5" storms. Especially early season. Some of it is temp related but not all. Energetic NS shortwaves like clippers were a staple in MD for as long as I can remember but something shut off after 2015 and hasn't come back. Starting to think it's permanent and sure hope I'm wrong....

Winters in the dmv (for snowlovers) have been annoying as heck for the 40 years I lived through them and they will continue to be annoying long after I'm gone lol

 

 

As always, great points. I will say this too: For those millennial like me, I think the perspective is a bit skewed, because if you're like me and your working memory for snowstorms started at the blizzard of 96...the span from then to 2016 was one in which you still had those 3-6"ers, and every 3-4 years you'd get a good-sized storm of either a foot, or maybe two feet every 6-7 years or so. So the dud years in between were normal and expected. 

What we didn't see? This long of a stretch without seeing more than 5-6". Like, that never happened. It was always 3 duds then a good one. Not 8 straight like this!

So I guess what I'm saying is that there is generational slanted perspective for some of us. What was a realistic expectation seems to have changed.

[87storms]

I’m currently drinking a beer from heavy seas called winter storm. It’s gonna snow this winter and there’s nothing we can do about it.