CAPE Posted October 24, 2024 Author Share Posted October 24, 2024 On 10/24/2024 at 8:31 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: The greatest post of all time on this forum was during winter 2015 when he wrote the most epic tirade I’ve ever seen against a New Englander bragging about some MECS they had (which was a bust down here). Jebman and I both tried searching for it awhile back but determined someone must have deleted it. I wish I had saved it! Expand That's the one. It is still in the threads somewhere. Do a search. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted October 24, 2024 Share Posted October 24, 2024 On 10/24/2024 at 3:00 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Of all people to judge someone else's posts as nonsensical I'm not entirely sure you should be. Expand My posts are based on intelligence based on the past 100+ years of climatology. Yours are probably based on a warped brain from 36 years of Nonsense. But, I do wish you well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 24, 2024 Share Posted October 24, 2024 On 10/24/2024 at 8:33 PM, CAPE said: That's the one. It is still in the threads somewhere. Do a search. Expand As I said, he and I tried but couldn’t find it, even with advanced search. Anyone else is welcome to look for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 24, 2024 Author Share Posted October 24, 2024 On 10/24/2024 at 9:54 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: As I said, he and I tried but couldn’t find it, even with advanced search. Anyone else is welcome to look for it! Expand Ah sorry I didn't read your post very thoroughly lol. I did find it and I think I reposted it several years ago, but not sure the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/24/2024 at 8:09 PM, CAPE said: Jebman goes pretty far back. He has made some hilarious posts. There was a series from about 10 years ago that were epic.. winter of 2014-15 I think. Expand Let us not forget that Jeb is also the reigning winner of the summer temperature contest. (I think he even surprises himself at times.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 Channel 5 (FOX) winter outlook released last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 Sad, but expected I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 4:49 PM, yoda said: Sad, but expected I guess Expand Man I despise this raging -PDO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 4:49 PM, yoda said: Sad, but expected I guess Expand I expect it to be near the lower ends in each band. 3-5 for the metros <1 for Richmond 40-45 for Mt. PSU 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 5:03 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: I expect it to be near the lower ends in each band. 3-5 for the metros <1 for Richmond 40-45 for Mt. PSU Expand It won't go down like that..I will wait for our snow contest to tell me where things stand...I'm going big..and not just because I am an idiot...mostly but not entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 5:03 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: I expect it to be near the lower ends in each band. 3-5 for the metros <1 for Richmond 40-45 for Mt. PSU Expand cm and I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/24/2024 at 5:32 PM, WEATHER53 said: Will you guarantee that like what was an absolute guarantee here last year that winter weather would return after that one Jan shot and Never Did here? Somehow NHC can predict within 50 miles 5 days out where a hurricane will hit but NWS can’t get path of a low pressure in winter correct at 2 days out????? Expand I think its probably easier for NWP to resolve dominant synoptic features like a category 4/5 hurricane or the superstorm in 93 than some of the discreet events significant to our snowfall in winter. A deep enough pressure system becomes a bully vs getting impacted significantly by other discreet variables. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 4:49 PM, yoda said: Expand Hey, I love this exercise in futility!!!!!!! This is quite reasonable within my 70 year research of Enso that I will post soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2024 Author Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 4:49 PM, yoda said: Sad, but expected I guess Expand Ridiculously simplistic, low effort, but typical with these predictions. No value whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 8:43 PM, CAPE said: Ridiculously simplistic, low effort, but typical with these predictions. No value whatsoever. Expand Possibly no value, but the long term Enso says we will likely have have a below normal snowfall winter with La Nina. Cape, give me hope!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2024 Author Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 8:50 PM, stormy said: Possibly no value, but the long term Enso says we will likely have have a below normal snowfall winter with La Nina. Cape, give me hope!!!! Expand Not a lock that we have a legit Nina yet. Could end up a cold neutral. My hope hinges on most guidance hinting at a -EPO, a stretched, somewhat southward displaced TPV, and some hints of neg NAO episodes. Just have to wait and see how the pattern actually evolves, and as usual, hope we get some luck with wave timing and cold enough air mass. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 What do y'all think about what it could look like up at that Liberty Resort in PA this year? I'm not familiar with how this climo has been up there. If there's potential I may try skiing for the first time this year...just to see some snow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 25, 2024 Author Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 9:01 PM, Maestrobjwa said: What do y'all think about what it could look like up at that Liberty Resort in PA this year? I'm not familiar with how this climo has been up there. If there's potential I may try skiing for the first time this year...just to see some snow, lol Expand There is always Wisp or Canaan. A bit further of a drive but worth it. Pretty much a guarantee there will be enough cold/snow to ski there in any winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 9:04 PM, CAPE said: There is always Wisp or Canaan. A bit further of a drive but worth it. Pretty much a guarantee there will be enough cold/snow to ski there in any winter. Expand We and a few other families ended up getting a house at Wisp for a long first weekend of February next year. We went for a few days after Christmas last year and it was pretty awful even at the top of the mountain - pouring rain on the drive out and 45 degrees and very little snow on the slopes while there (but a couple inches of snow overnight on our last night). I suggested we go in pretty much peak season so I'm hoping to get a real winter fix while we're out there...but definitely wouldn't mind heading out after a nice stretch of winter back here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 9:01 PM, Maestrobjwa said: What do y'all think about what it could look like up at that Liberty Resort in PA this year? I'm not familiar with how this climo has been up there. If there's potential I may try skiing for the first time this year...just to see some snow, lolLiberty will do better than here… as will many spots. Definitely gonna chase this year if it’s looking grim, or if there is a storm that just looks too good to skip. Lots of PTO banked and may need some good vibe distractions. Snow ain’t that reliable for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 9:16 PM, mattie g said: We and a few other families ended up getting a house at Wisp for a long first weekend of February next year. We went for a few days after Christmas last year and it was pretty awful even at the top of the mountain - pouring rain on the drive out and 45 degrees and very little snow on the slopes while there (but a couple inches of snow overnight on our last night). I suggested we go in pretty much peak season so I'm hoping to get a real winter fix while we're out there...but definitely wouldn't mind heading out after a nice stretch of winter back here! Expand So it’s going to shoot into the 70s that week. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 8:58 PM, CAPE said: Not a lock that we have a legit Nina yet. Could end up a cold neutral. My hope hinges on most guidance hinting at a -EPO, a stretched, somewhat southward displaced TPV, and some hints of neg NAO episodes. Just have to wait and see how the pattern actually evolves, and as usual, hope we get some luck with wave timing and cold enough air mass. Expand The latest CPC info says a -.6 - .7 . This certainly will be marginal but this level if accurate will be a downer for winter snowfall. Moderate La Nina's don't smile on us for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 4:46 PM, yoda said: Channel 5 (FOX) winter outlook released last night Expand For the record just like Ji Jays wintry mix cannot locate where he lives on a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 26, 2024 Share Posted October 26, 2024 On 10/25/2024 at 9:01 PM, Maestrobjwa said: What do y'all think about what it could look like up at that Liberty Resort in PA this year? I'm not familiar with how this climo has been up there. If there's potential I may try skiing for the first time this year...just to see some snow, lol Expand I live 20 minutes from Liberty. You need to head further west to see more natural snow. Liberty is ok but they don't get lake effect like Wisp, Cannan or 7 springs can get. Last year they were only open for about 6 or 7 weeks. Very rough , short year for them. I really like Wisp. My kids are just getting into skiing and there were alot of easy trails for them. I'm about 2 hours from wisp and we did a couple day trips there to ski last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted October 26, 2024 Share Posted October 26, 2024 The anomalously dry Fall continues. The last time we had such a dry Fall was in 1963. If only that analog worked out for the upcoming winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted October 26, 2024 Share Posted October 26, 2024 On 10/26/2024 at 7:01 PM, MDstorm said: The anomalously dry Fall continues. The last time we had such a dry Fall was in 1963. If only that analog worked out for the upcoming winter Expand Up here we are dating back to 1874 in regards to the dryness. I am willing to bet it snowed in 1874? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted October 28, 2024 Share Posted October 28, 2024 Found this in New York metro: The part I'd like to quote is: "The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025." This winter could be historically bad... so bad that my snowfall prediction might be too optimistic... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted October 28, 2024 Share Posted October 28, 2024 During the winter of 2016-2017 in Pasadena, MD (ZIP code 21122), the total snowfall was approximately 22.29 centimeters (8.77 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted October 28, 2024 Share Posted October 28, 2024 During the winter of 2022-2023 in Pasadena, MD (ZIP code 21122), the total snowfall was approximately 14.77 centimeters (5.81 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted October 28, 2024 Share Posted October 28, 2024 Its the most wonderful time of the year!!! A time when speculation is high for the coming winter. This year, our glee is low because of a coming La Nina winter......... Last year it was high because of El Nino............ What did that amount to ???? I have researched analogues for the past 70 years and I have to believe that we will have another low snowfall winter............ Do I believe we can simply blame it on La Nina or other Nonsense? No I have also identified a bias toward a dry La Nina winter. At least one other factor as stressed by PSU is the PDO. I have identified 7 analogues back to 1955. The CPC suggests that a Dynamic/Statistical blend for the coming winter will be -.6 to -.7. This is based on my location which receives an average of 24 inches of snow and 15.45 inches of rain from November through March. We begin with 2023 which averaged - 6.3 La Nina, I received 1.5 inches of snow and 14.21 precip. Low snow and Precip.. 2001- 6.33 La Nina, 5.5 inches snow and 10.52 precip. Low snow and precip. 1984 - 6.33 La Nina, 10.0 inches snow and 25.72 precip. Above normal precip. 1975 - 5.6 La Nina, 9.8" snow, 12 .66 precip. Low snow and precip. 1972 - 6.6 La Nina, 4.7" snow,, 9.05 precip. Low snow and Precip. 1965 -5.6 La Nina, 24.5" snow and 14.37 Precip. Mother Nature always found a way to snow during the '60's. The PDO was -.90 in January of 65 1955 - .7, 13.1 " snow and 17.41 Precip. 86% of the time during the past 70 years we have had a low snowfall winter with a - .6 La Nina and 86% of the time we have had a dry winter. My broad blend gives us 10 inches of snowfall during this coming winter.......................... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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