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Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation


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6 hours ago, 87storms said:

One option is for me to get another jeep.  I bought my last one in Nov '13 which was followed by a string of goat-level winters.  

Early Feb/Mar 2014, FRD got upwards of 20” in one storm. Was living in Wormans with two college buddies. My Wrangler was perfect to keep my parking space free. Never shoveled the spot and no one tried to park there due to depth. Oh the good days!

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1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Don't weak Ninas tend to surprise?

They can, but with a strongly negative PDO the surprises will be few and far between. Here’s hoping we get at least a couple of well-timed rogue southern track storms. 

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14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

They can, but with a strongly negative PDO the surprises will be few and far between. Here’s hoping we get at least a couple of well-timed rogue southern track storms. 

Probably our best hope this year is a winter that's below normal for snow but not an absolute dumpster fire.

Something like 8 to 14" in DC Metro and like 15"- 20" in NW burbs.

One thing that gives me hope is if Canada is cold this year. A little easier for cold shots.

 

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Early Feb/Mar 2014, FRD got upwards of 20” in one storm. Was living in Wormans with two college buddies. My Wrangler was perfect to keep my parking space free. Never shoveled the spot and no one tried to park there due to depth. Oh the good days!

That 4x4 can really plow through snow, especially with the right tires.
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54 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

They can, but with a strongly negative PDO the surprises will be few and far between. Here’s hoping we get at least a couple of well-timed rogue southern track storms. 

I know I get weenied for being too negative, but any realistic look at what's actually happening--notably that -PDO mixed with a nina--tells ya that there's just not much there. While nobody wants to toss a winter before it starts, if there were ever a year where doing that is perfectly logical, it's this one! The evidence is already there--we've got the current indices, and the liklihood of a positive surprise is low. Now eternal optimists for no other than reason than to just be, do you :lol:

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I know I get weenied for being too negative, but any realistic look at what's actually happening--notably that -PDO mixed with a nina--tells ya that there's just not much there. While nobody wants to toss a winter before it starts, if there were ever a year where doing that is perfectly logical, it's this one! The evidence is already there and the liklihood of a positive surprise is low. Now eternal optimists for no other than reason than to just be, do you :lol:

I wrote off this winter and next winter months ago.

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9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I wrote off this winter and next winter months ago.

Dang you went further than me, lol I mean yeah Ninas double dip (although I'd like to see examples of times when they didn't), and if we go into next with the same ol' -PDO with another nina then eh. Once we get +PDO at least it'll be something to watch to see how much of a factor the opposite has had on our winters. Of course there's warm pools and other dumb stuff in the pacific too, but what I hear from the better minds on here is that -PDO is an issue. Change that and we can watch...

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2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

The good ole weather channel lol. 

Anyway. Very chilly out there. It's been a chilly October. 

37 here in the forested South River watershed. Frost in the low spots.

It's been a beautiful month and it reminds me a lot of October 2000. 

I've been wondering if 2000-2001 is in fact a decent analog... which means we're still screwed, but not for the reasons TWC thinks lol

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22 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It's been a beautiful month and it reminds me a lot of October 2000. 

I've been wondering if 2000-2001 is in fact a decent analog... which means we're still screwed, but not for the reasons TWC thinks lol

Seasonal forecast are just farmer almanacs made by computers lol. We're going to have a good ole fashion climo winter and we're going to enjoy it for what it is. 

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It's been a beautiful month and it reminds me a lot of October 2000. 

I've been wondering if 2000-2001 is in fact a decent analog... which means we're still screwed, but not for the reasons TWC thinks lol

2001 was a decent winter up here, but the 3 largest snowfalls that winter here were all very marginal.  Two were rain to snow events and one was just wet snow the whole time.  2 of the 3 were mostly rain in DC/Baltimore.  If you increase the temp at all...you can probably take away a significant % of that seasons snow up here.  

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21 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I expect this year’s panic room thread to be a busy one.

It shouldn't be. Like we're starting from very, VERY little to no potential here. So wherein lie the panic? Lol Now, I'm sure the "What's wrong with our winters" thread will be jumpin' though...

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13 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years....

That's like the one winter (2012-2013?) where JB went warm and dry and everyone knew it was over in early December.

1 hour ago, peribonca said:

Just get ready for another 6 months worth of November in a row.

October.

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For overall winter flavor, my  top analogs are 83-84, 03-04, 05-06. Gun to head, Dec will be in play this year but being in play and actually snowing are separate discussions lol. 

Like I alluded to last week with my wag, warm periods will be warm+ and overwhelm any chance at a BN DJF but the cold periods will be sharp. Maybe one month ends BN. My gut says Jan is the best chance at that but recent (persistant) trend is late cold so March is probably more logical. Just spitballin' there. 

If the Nino hangover guess works out then a stj storm in Jan or Feb could make the winter memorable by itself. 

I like Terp's forecast in general but I can't stop thinking the Npac LW pattern won't be classic Nina. A tendency for Aleutian ridging poleward and further east than classic is my against the grain thought. Downstream it would bully the classic SE ridge placement further east. SE ridge delaying and shunting aggressive cold shots has been a real thorn last handful of years. Models have been terrible in mid/long range with that. My guess is that will still be a problem but just less of one than recent years. At times it won't be a problem at all due to my upstream guess. Lots of guessin out of me this year lol

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15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It shouldn't be. Like we're starting from very, VERY little to no potential here. So wherein lie the panic? Lol Now, I'm sure the "What's wrong with our winters" thread will be jumpin' though...

You underestimate the number of weenies in denial.

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2 hours ago, LeesburgWx said:

How many perfect track rainstorms are we getting this year? Over/under 5.5

I’ll go with the under. The SE will likely end up drier than normal, meaning fewer coastals. But that doesn’t mean we won’t get a lot of rain from cutters or double barreled lows. 

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I’m bit more optimistic than when I wrote 6 weeks ago.  Late summer and early fall analogs show some 2018-19 matchings. 
I said last winter I thought it would be a little bit better than 2022-23 and 2023-24 was and I think this year a tad better still than 2023-24 

So will go with 12.5”  DCA, 15-17” for IAD and BWI.  

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7 hours ago, LeesburgWx said:

How many perfect track rainstorms are we getting this year? Over/under 5.5

I'll set the over/under on Pacific Jet Extensions as 2.5.

The combo of the PJE and raging SE ridge has been simply killer.  The PJE scours all cold from the entire continent.  After it shuts off, the cold air slowly builds back from the source regions but it takes forever fighting against the SER.  By the time it almost gets here...BOOM, another Pac Puke.  Rinse and repeat ad naseum.  

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On 10/17/2024 at 7:22 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

More and more it seems like we need a cooperative Pacific, otherwise we're praying for a rogue fluke event.

Well, I have been saying last 3-5 years the Pacific the largest body of water on Earth has warmed to the point of that overpowers any winter pattern that gives snow to us and just floods the lower 48 with pacific air that does not produce significant snows; this idea is the new normal. I have no faith in a winter that will produce much. 

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