nmyers1204 Posted Wednesday at 10:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:29 PM 6 hours ago, 87storms said: One option is for me to get another jeep. I bought my last one in Nov '13 which was followed by a string of goat-level winters. Early Feb/Mar 2014, FRD got upwards of 20” in one storm. Was living in Wormans with two college buddies. My Wrangler was perfect to keep my parking space free. Never shoveled the spot and no one tried to park there due to depth. Oh the good days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Wednesday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:47 PM Don't weak Ninas tend to surprise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Thursday at 01:21 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:21 AM 1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Don't weak Ninas tend to surprise? They can, but with a strongly negative PDO the surprises will be few and far between. Here’s hoping we get at least a couple of well-timed rogue southern track storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Thursday at 01:39 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:39 AM 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: They can, but with a strongly negative PDO the surprises will be few and far between. Here’s hoping we get at least a couple of well-timed rogue southern track storms. Probably our best hope this year is a winter that's below normal for snow but not an absolute dumpster fire. Something like 8 to 14" in DC Metro and like 15"- 20" in NW burbs. One thing that gives me hope is if Canada is cold this year. A little easier for cold shots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Thursday at 01:54 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:54 AM Early Feb/Mar 2014, FRD got upwards of 20” in one storm. Was living in Wormans with two college buddies. My Wrangler was perfect to keep my parking space free. Never shoveled the spot and no one tried to park there due to depth. Oh the good days!That 4x4 can really plow through snow, especially with the right tires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Thursday at 02:15 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:15 AM 54 minutes ago, Terpeast said: They can, but with a strongly negative PDO the surprises will be few and far between. Here’s hoping we get at least a couple of well-timed rogue southern track storms. I know I get weenied for being too negative, but any realistic look at what's actually happening--notably that -PDO mixed with a nina--tells ya that there's just not much there. While nobody wants to toss a winter before it starts, if there were ever a year where doing that is perfectly logical, it's this one! The evidence is already there--we've got the current indices, and the liklihood of a positive surprise is low. Now eternal optimists for no other than reason than to just be, do you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Thursday at 02:17 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:17 AM 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I know I get weenied for being too negative, but any realistic look at what's actually happening--notably that -PDO mixed with a nina--tells ya that there's just not much there. While nobody wants to toss a winter before it starts, if there were ever a year where doing that is perfectly logical, it's this one! The evidence is already there and the liklihood of a positive surprise is low. Now eternal optimists for no other than reason than to just be, do you I wrote off this winter and next winter months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Thursday at 02:31 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:31 AM 9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I wrote off this winter and next winter months ago. Dang you went further than me, lol I mean yeah Ninas double dip (although I'd like to see examples of times when they didn't), and if we go into next with the same ol' -PDO with another nina then eh. Once we get +PDO at least it'll be something to watch to see how much of a factor the opposite has had on our winters. Of course there's warm pools and other dumb stuff in the pacific too, but what I hear from the better minds on here is that -PDO is an issue. Change that and we can watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 11:22 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:22 AM More and more it seems like we need a cooperative Pacific, otherwise we're praying for a rogue fluke event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Thursday at 11:54 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:54 AM Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years.... 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Thursday at 12:16 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:16 PM 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years.... The good ole weather channel lol. Anyway. Very chilly out there. It's been a chilly October. 37 here in the forested South River watershed. Frost in the low spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted Thursday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:43 PM 2 hours ago, dailylurker said: The good ole weather channel lol. Anyway. Very chilly out there. It's been a chilly October. 37 here in the forested South River watershed. Frost in the low spots. It's been a beautiful month and it reminds me a lot of October 2000. I've been wondering if 2000-2001 is in fact a decent analog... which means we're still screwed, but not for the reasons TWC thinks lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Thursday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:08 PM 22 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: It's been a beautiful month and it reminds me a lot of October 2000. I've been wondering if 2000-2001 is in fact a decent analog... which means we're still screwed, but not for the reasons TWC thinks lol Seasonal forecast are just farmer almanacs made by computers lol. We're going to have a good ole fashion climo winter and we're going to enjoy it for what it is. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scope1 Posted Thursday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:15 PM I have the farmers almanac and it has a few opportunities for snow in February I’m pretty sure it has one opportunity around Presidents’ Day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Thursday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:52 PM 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: It's been a beautiful month and it reminds me a lot of October 2000. I've been wondering if 2000-2001 is in fact a decent analog... which means we're still screwed, but not for the reasons TWC thinks lol 2001 was a decent winter up here, but the 3 largest snowfalls that winter here were all very marginal. Two were rain to snow events and one was just wet snow the whole time. 2 of the 3 were mostly rain in DC/Baltimore. If you increase the temp at all...you can probably take away a significant % of that seasons snow up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Thursday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:00 PM 5 hours ago, Weather Will said: Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years.... Chuck finally got a job? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Thursday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:41 PM 6 hours ago, aldie 22 said: Chuck finally got a job? This is my Winter forecast for 2024-25 I do think we will have colder periods, but some of the warm spikes will be extreme +departure days, skewing the overall warmer. So, more variation/volatility vs a constant pattern. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Thursday at 11:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:02 PM 20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This is my Winter forecast for 2024-25 I expect this year’s panic room thread to be a busy one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Thursday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:27 PM 21 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I expect this year’s panic room thread to be a busy one. It shouldn't be. Like we're starting from very, VERY little to no potential here. So wherein lie the panic? Lol Now, I'm sure the "What's wrong with our winters" thread will be jumpin' though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted Thursday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:39 PM Just get ready for another 6 months worth of November in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Friday at 12:24 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:24 AM 43 minutes ago, peribonca said: Just get ready for another 6 months worth of November in a row. Pretty much. Even the most optimistic poster here can't really color this better as far as snow is concerned, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Friday at 01:12 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:12 AM 13 hours ago, Weather Will said: Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years.... That's like the one winter (2012-2013?) where JB went warm and dry and everyone knew it was over in early December. 1 hour ago, peribonca said: Just get ready for another 6 months worth of November in a row. October. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Friday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:16 PM For overall winter flavor, my top analogs are 83-84, 03-04, 05-06. Gun to head, Dec will be in play this year but being in play and actually snowing are separate discussions lol. Like I alluded to last week with my wag, warm periods will be warm+ and overwhelm any chance at a BN DJF but the cold periods will be sharp. Maybe one month ends BN. My gut says Jan is the best chance at that but recent (persistant) trend is late cold so March is probably more logical. Just spitballin' there. If the Nino hangover guess works out then a stj storm in Jan or Feb could make the winter memorable by itself. I like Terp's forecast in general but I can't stop thinking the Npac LW pattern won't be classic Nina. A tendency for Aleutian ridging poleward and further east than classic is my against the grain thought. Downstream it would bully the classic SE ridge placement further east. SE ridge delaying and shunting aggressive cold shots has been a real thorn last handful of years. Models have been terrible in mid/long range with that. My guess is that will still be a problem but just less of one than recent years. At times it won't be a problem at all due to my upstream guess. Lots of guessin out of me this year lol 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Friday at 02:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:30 PM How many perfect track rainstorms are we getting this year? Over/under 5.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Friday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:48 PM 15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: It shouldn't be. Like we're starting from very, VERY little to no potential here. So wherein lie the panic? Lol Now, I'm sure the "What's wrong with our winters" thread will be jumpin' though... You underestimate the number of weenies in denial. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:37 PM 2 hours ago, LeesburgWx said: How many perfect track rainstorms are we getting this year? Over/under 5.5 I’ll go with the under. The SE will likely end up drier than normal, meaning fewer coastals. But that doesn’t mean we won’t get a lot of rain from cutters or double barreled lows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Friday at 04:50 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:50 PM I’m bit more optimistic than when I wrote 6 weeks ago. Late summer and early fall analogs show some 2018-19 matchings. I said last winter I thought it would be a little bit better than 2022-23 and 2023-24 was and I think this year a tad better still than 2023-24 So will go with 12.5” DCA, 15-17” for IAD and BWI. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Friday at 09:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:03 PM The Great Flood of 1985 had about a 10 day lag before more rain.. We are up to 17 days now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Friday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:36 PM 7 hours ago, LeesburgWx said: How many perfect track rainstorms are we getting this year? Over/under 5.5 I'll set the over/under on Pacific Jet Extensions as 2.5. The combo of the PJE and raging SE ridge has been simply killer. The PJE scours all cold from the entire continent. After it shuts off, the cold air slowly builds back from the source regions but it takes forever fighting against the SER. By the time it almost gets here...BOOM, another Pac Puke. Rinse and repeat ad naseum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Friday at 10:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:07 PM On 10/17/2024 at 7:22 AM, Eskimo Joe said: More and more it seems like we need a cooperative Pacific, otherwise we're praying for a rogue fluke event. Well, I have been saying last 3-5 years the Pacific the largest body of water on Earth has warmed to the point of that overpowers any winter pattern that gives snow to us and just floods the lower 48 with pacific air that does not produce significant snows; this idea is the new normal. I have no faith in a winter that will produce much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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