40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 20 hours ago, frd said: Big drop in the AO arriving. Good early season sign. Why is an AO drop in September a good sign for the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why is an AO drop in September a good sign for the winter? Why is any index a good sign for the winter? Wait...do good indexes even exist anymore? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why is an AO drop in September a good sign for the winter? Why not ? Several mentions online recently that it prevents a raipid strong early season PV development. But, regardless we all know its going to be a warm and snowless winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 6 hours ago, frd said: Why not ? Several mentions online recently that it prevents a raipid strong early season PV development. But, regardless we all know its going to be a warm and snowless winter. I really don't think it matters. There is plenty of time for recovery prior to winter...look at 2006....huge NAO block that fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 In January-February-March, the October NAO actually has a pretty good opposite correlation with the NAO of those months.. it's about 45%. This is impressive because no other months of the year have a correlation <50%. Default of these maps is positive, so it's showing after a + index state I know this -NAO is falling into the realm of September, but just barely.. because it's the last few days of the month, it probably has a 49% correlation to the Winter NAO (since Oct is 45% and Sept is 51%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 For a week in a row, CFS has shows February, not December to be the best winter month. Skeptical because it goes against the nina grain and what we’ve seen in the last several winters. Precip pattern shows a coastal track, too. Not particularly putting any weight on this, just not much more than a “hmm” moment. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 On 9/15/2024 at 6:45 AM, CAPE said: The more poleward Aleutian ridge is the most important feature for our area in a Nina. That along with the stretched/southward displaced TPV idea the climate models have been hinting at would provide a mechanism for cold air delivery at times. During colder periods the thermal boundary could push over/just to the south of us. Models have also been hinting at possible HL blocking. Fwiw the advertised h5 look on the latest CFS runs look quite acceptable for Jan, and Feb too. Your micro analysis is correct. But on the macro we live at a location that needs a decent negative departure to get snow and consistently for years every projection shows 80% of the hemisphere red. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Your micro analysis is correct. But on the macro we live at a location that needs a decent negative departure to get snow and consistently for years every projection shows 80% of the hemisphere red. It's ok, I'm sure the dastardly underwater volcanoes causing that will calm down soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 5 hours ago, Terpeast said: For a week in a row, CFS has shows February, not December to be the best winter month. Skeptical because it goes against the nina grain and what we’ve seen in the last several winters. Precip pattern shows a coastal track, too. Not particularly putting any weight on this, just not much more than a “hmm” moment. That's when you know it's wrong--ain't no February the best month in a nina, lolol Man this has the be the easiest winter to forecast ever! Don't even have to go to school to do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's when you know it's wrong--ain't no February the best month in a nina, lolol Man this has the be the easiest winter to forecast ever! Don't even have to go to school to do it Well, we thought a cold and active february was a lock even the last week of jan this year. Models were showing it for months. Then it slipped away at the last minute. You never know. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 17 Author Share Posted September 17 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Your micro analysis is correct. But on the macro we live at a location that needs a decent negative departure to get snow and consistently for years every projection shows 80% of the hemisphere red. I have learned to largely ignore the colors on the super LR tools and follow the height lines, focusing instead on the flow around/between upper level features. That look should bring some cold southward. Ofc it's a single panel attempting to depict the general longwave pattern for an entire month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: I have learned to largely ignore the colors on the super LR tools and follow the height lines, focusing instead on the flow around/between upper level features. That look should bring some cold southward. Ofc it's a single panel attempting to depict the general longwave pattern for an entire month. But don’t forget that the mean H5 shown on this and other long range models could easily be wrong. Last winter is just one example. If H5 had even been close, last winter would have been much better. They’ve overall averaged too cold in recent years in the E US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 17 Author Share Posted September 17 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: But the mean H5 shown on this and other long range models could easily be wrong. Last winter is just one example. If H5 had even been close, last winter would have been much better. They’ve overall averaged too cold in recent years in the E US. Certainly could be. These tools have proven to be variable and quite limited, and thus the 'Fwiw' disclaimer when I post them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 On 9/17/2024 at 4:46 PM, CAPE said: I have learned to largely ignore the colors on the super LR tools and follow the height lines, focusing instead on the flow around/between upper level features. That look should bring some cold southward. Ofc it's a single panel attempting to depict the general longwave pattern for an entire month. Sorry if I didn’t articulate it well. I agreed with your analysis of that prog. It wasn’t awful, about as good as we could expect in a Nina. I’d take it. I was making a 30,000 ft view comment not specific to that plot. And yea in theory the flow should matter more. Unless it’s just warm all over which has actually been the case too often. This has been the reality the last 9 years. and our snow had been what you would expect in those temps! Sure we could get lucky and someday we get a cycle where the pattern puts that little tiny blue dot that’s over BC over us instead. But the probabilities of that when 90% of the hemisphere has seasonal temp anomalies that wouldn’t support a snowy winter here isn’t very good regardless of the pattern. Just for reminders this is what a snowy winter looks like. The last 5 above normal snowfall winters at BWI That’s what snowy looks like. It’s been a long arse time since we saw those kind of seasonal negative anomalies anywhere in the mid latitudes. But that’s what we need! Now this doesn’t mean we can’t get any snow. And I’ll be tracking as always looking for that fluke that might happen on an otherwise hostile regime. I’ve recalibrated. But I doubt if we can get a seasonal anomaly that looks like our “snowy winters” one with current SST profiles no matter what the specific long wave pattern details are. We’re rooting for one off fluke events imo. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 If anyone is bored, there is a storm to track along the Brooks Range ... From the weather discussion, it looks like the NAM is the outlier. "Snow will be moving into the area Friday morning and continue through Sunday morning before tapering off to light snow and flurries. The snow may be heavy at times, including along the Dalton Highway. Temperatures will be chilly, with highs in the 20s and low 30s as well as lows in the teens." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted Sunday at 03:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:45 AM On 9/18/2024 at 9:35 PM, psuhoffman said: Sorry if I didn’t articulate it well. I agreed with your analysis of that prog. It wasn’t awful, about as good as we could expect in a Nina. I’d take it. I was making a 30,000 ft view comment not specific to that plot. And yea in theory the flow should matter more. Unless it’s just warm all over which has actually been the case too often. This has been the reality the last 9 years. and our snow had been what you would expect in those temps! Sure we could get lucky and someday we get a cycle where the pattern puts that little tiny blue dot that’s over BC over us instead. But the probabilities of that when 90% of the hemisphere has seasonal temp anomalies that wouldn’t support a snowy winter here isn’t very good regardless of the pattern. Just for reminders this is what a snowy winter looks like. The last 5 above normal snowfall winters at BWI That’s what snowy looks like. It’s been a long arse time since we saw those kind of seasonal negative anomalies anywhere in the mid latitudes. But that’s what we need! Now this doesn’t mean we can’t get any snow. And I’ll be tracking as always looking for that fluke that might happen on an otherwise hostile regime. I’ve recalibrated. But I doubt if we can get a seasonal anomaly that looks like our “snowy winters” one with current SST profiles no matter what the specific long wave pattern details are. We’re rooting for one off fluke events imo. One of the reasons I moved to a location 4000 feet high a mile from Roan Mountain, TN. Upslope snow is about the only guarantee these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 03:28 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:28 PM 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Sunday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:15 PM [/url] He seems bullish on winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Monday at 12:41 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 12:41 AM 4 hours ago, Ji said: He seems bullish on winter Agrees with the CFS for Jan and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 01:57 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:57 AM 5 hours ago, Ji said: He seems bullish on winter That pattern is better than 2020 or 2023. It’s not a total snowless dud type pattern. But it’s not a snowy pattern either. It’s likely something like 2018/2021/2022. Maybe in the new normal that is snowy lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Monday at 06:09 AM Share Posted Monday at 06:09 AM 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: That pattern is better than 2020 or 2023. It’s not a total snowless dud type pattern. But it’s not a snowy pattern either. It’s likely something like 2018/2021/2022. Maybe in the new normal that is snowy lol. Perhaps we oughta name it the scenery snow pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Monday at 08:19 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 08:19 AM 12 hours ago, psuhoffman said: That pattern is better than 2020 or 2023. It’s not a total snowless dud type pattern. But it’s not a snowy pattern either. It’s likely something like 2018/2021/2022. Maybe in the new normal that is snowy lol. This is what I'm thinking. Remains to be seen if a Nino with relatively warm air in Canada can give us the above normal snowfall seasons anymore. Need a Modoki with legit -AO/NAO in the next few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Tuesday at 05:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:21 PM Intuition is telling me this winter will be OK. We've been on a multi year stretch of stale cold. Always slower and shallower than first anticipated. Setups have been half decent at times but I can't count how many times mid level flow had already turned sw too far in advance before a shortwave arrives. It feels like if all shortwaves arrived just 12-18 hours sooner than they actually did (like models often showed in the mid range lol), stats would look a lot better. Not great but not in the gutter either. Subtle variances in lw trough alignment can always mess with us and we've been getting our asses handed to us. WDI index is high to win a few even if thru dumb luck Before 2015 got rolling in Feb, we failed in similar ways quite a bit. Once the lw trough axis shifted things heated up. 2015 isn't an analog in any way to me. Just using it as an example of failing with stale cold or mid levels scouring top early. My total wag is this winter will have several condensed periods that feel like real winter. Periods of -epo/+pna make a lot of sense to me like the climate models are starting to think about now. Counter-intuitive surprises are probably here to stay in any enso IMHO. Good luck guessing that right year after year if it keeps happening lol. Volatility is baking in it seems lol We had some see-saw winters sandwiched between the big nino years of 02-03/09-10. My wag is a mix of that stuff. Haven't thought much about it. We'll see how it goes 18 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted Tuesday at 08:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:09 PM Weatherbell's winter forecast...seems reasonable given the indices. A Look at Winter (weatherbell.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted Tuesday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:32 PM 1 hour ago, Round Hill WX said: Weatherbell's winter forecast...seems reasonable given the indices. A Look at Winter (weatherbell.com) Seems like a lot more on the MJO than I recall previous years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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