Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Good info. Anecdotally, the Nina winters since 2016 have overall(minus the dud) produced better outcomes (snow) here than neutrals or Ninos. The 2022 Nina was actually better here than the 2016 Nino.

2017 and 2023 were actually neutral by the JFM period. So you could argue all the duds were neutral more than Nina. At the least going back 30 years one of the worst possible results is when we get a weak fall nina fading to neutral during winter. Which is why it’s weird that every Nina some contingent of snow weenies roots for it to fade to “save winter late” when in reality the evidence is to the contrary.  I get logically why the thought that the Nina fading would help but in reality it does not. I’ve not looked into it enough but I have a theory that later in winter Nina forcing isn’t actually as hostile once wavelengths shorten. There is also some evidence that blocking in March is more likely in a Nina v a neutral.  So we don’t actually want it to fade once the damage is done to the first half. 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2017 and 2023 were actually neutral by the JFM period. So you could argue all the duds were neutral more than Nina. At the least going back 30 years one of the worst possible results is when we get a weak fall nina fading to neutral during winter. Which is why it’s weird that every Nina some contingent of snow weenies roots for it to fade to “save winter late” when in reality the evidence is to the contrary.  I get logically why the thought that the Nina fading would help but in reality it does not. I’ve not looked into it enough but I have a theory that later in winter Nina forcing isn’t actually as hostile once wavelengths shorten. So we don’t actually want it to fade once the damage is done to the first half. 

IIRC the 2018 Nina was fading, but probably still officially considered weak when the mid March snowstorm happened.

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Remember how epic the Nino of last winter was going to be? Those big coastal storms late winter, with just enough cold!

I will take the over this winter. Over meaning more snow than last winter, which was 8-10 inches for the DC area. That would be a pretty good outcome for a Nina with high solar, and ascending QBO. The PDO isn't a factor because its has been stuck negative for awhile, and is unfavorable more times than not during a Nina.

If there's anything I've learned in my years here, especially as of late, is that none of the experts (armchair or professional) can figure out what kind of winter we're going to have with any significant accuracy.  Met with my builder up on the mountain this past weekend and he's thinking we will have keys by December so im hoping for a white Christmas in the mountains this year.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

IIRC the 2018 Nina was fading, but probably still officially considered weak when the mid March snowstorm happened.

Almost every Nina fades some towards spring. FMA 2018 still came in -.7 which is about avg for a Nina that late v +.1 in 2017 and -.2 in 2023.  Those 2 years definitely faded to neutral by the end of winter.  But this is subjective. These are arbitrary numbers, where you decide the metric becomes significant?  One year can be a fluke. Small sample size. But with all those caveats admitted the results have been better when a Nina stays at least in Nina territory on the scale through the end of winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

2017 and 2023 were actually neutral by the JFM period. So you could argue all the duds were neutral more than Nina. At the least going back 30 years one of the worst possible results is when we get a weak fall nina fading to neutral during winter. Which is why it’s weird that every Nina some contingent of snow weenies roots for it to fade to “save winter late” when in reality the evidence is to the contrary.  I get logically why the thought that the Nina fading would help but in reality it does not. I’ve not looked into it enough but I have a theory that later in winter Nina forcing isn’t actually as hostile once wavelengths shorten. There is also some evidence that blocking in March is more likely in a Nina v a neutral.  So we don’t actually want it to fade once the damage is done to the first half. 

It's probably because March's correlation with the PNA is near neutral

While January has a pretty high correlation

If MR models show a snowstorm in January and the PNA is strongly negative, I am going to be posting about it trending warmer at getting like 12 weenies on here lol 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's probably because March's correlation with the PNA is near neutral

While January has a pretty high correlation

I will tell you, if MR models show a snowstorm in January and the PNA is strongly negative, I am going to be posting about it trending warmer at getting like 12 weenies on here lol 

Not from me 

[Ji]

Thoughts

[Ji]

JB on WB came out with his winter outlook and it is horrible for the East....  so let's hope he is wrong again about this winter!!!! 

I’m worried because he nailed last winter and this summers hurricane season

[IronTy]

JB already capitulated on his more rational warm winter call and is building hype for a December to remember.  Couldn't even keep it contained for a whole week.  

[WxUSAF]

New euro seasonal is ugly but Webb ain’t buying jt

 

[clskinsfan]

On 9/2/2024 at 3:49 PM, psuhoffman said:

Throwing this out there because some on the main enso thread are rooting for neutral. There is no evidence that’s good for us wrt snowfall.

I am actually not sure anything is good for us anymore when it comes to snow. The weird thing is the ocean temps in the Mid Atlantic have been cold for a few years now. Been trying to read and understand why that is happening. And best guesses I have seen attribute it to Northern Hemisphere ice melt due to CC. My theory is it is effecting the "normal" baroclinic zone on the east coast. And that is impacting storm tracks. But who the hell knows anymore? We have had some whacky ass storm tracks over the past few years. 

[Terpeast]

New CFS just came out, and boy it’s ugly. 

I mentioned watching the waters off the west coast, those ssts have cooled back down as the WPac marine heat wave got even stronger. 

I’ll do a brief outlook in October, not as detailed as last year’s. But my first guess is that we have about a 70% chance of a rat where we get only 0-3”. Only the upslope favored areas will do ok. 

One other thing I’ll say is that if you wanna chase snow, you may not necessarily have to fly west. I have a feeling there’ll be a monster lake effect event in Buffalo sometime late Nov through Dec. That’s your window if you want to get dumped on within a 7 hour drive of here. 

[mattie g]

I refuse to care at all about long-range/seasonal model predictions. Accuracy has always been an issue in the best of times, but if the last few years has taught me anything, it's that we should be even more wary of these very long-range progs than we have been in the past.

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

New CFS just came out, and boy it’s ugly. 

I mentioned watching the waters off the west coast, those ssts have cooled back down as the WPac marine heat wave got even stronger. 

I’ll do a brief outlook in October, not as detailed as last year’s. But my first guess is that we have about a 70% chance of a rat where we get only 0-3”. Only the upslope favored areas will do ok. 

One other thing I’ll say is that if you wanna chase snow, you may not necessarily have to fly west. I have a feeling there’ll be a monster lake effect event in Buffalo sometime late Nov through Dec. That’s your window if you want to get dumped on within a 7 hour drive of here. 

The CFS runs multiple times a day. TT has the average of the last 12 runs- which removes some of the 'noise'. Still if you look at it over a period of a week or so, it changes quite a bit. WB is ridiculous and not worth looking at imo. Just looked at TT and the general h5 look is pretty similar to previous runs to me. Feb looks much colder than previous runs. The basic idea is all that can be gleaned from any of these climate models- generally they all show boiler plate Nina looks. A Poleward biased Aleutian ridge is the key feature of interest for our region to have a cold period or 2.

[GramaxRefugee]

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

... we should be even more wary of these very long-range progs than we have been in the past.

Sad but true.

[WxUSAF]

Good thread from Webb this evening. Sounds like he remains supportive of a more winter weather friendly pattern.

 

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

New CFS just came out, and boy it’s ugly. 

I mentioned watching the waters off the west coast, those ssts have cooled back down as the WPac marine heat wave got even stronger. 

I’ll do a brief outlook in October, not as detailed as last year’s. But my first guess is that we have about a 70% chance of a rat where we get only 0-3”. Only the upslope favored areas will do ok. 

One other thing I’ll say is that if you wanna chase snow, you may not necessarily have to fly west. I have a feeling there’ll be a monster lake effect event in Buffalo sometime late Nov through Dec. That’s your window if you want to get dumped on within a 7 hour drive of here. 

I’m going to revelstoke Dec 29-Jan 4. I like my chances. Last time I was there new years was a Nina and they had about 100” otg and got about 30” the week we were there.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, Terpeast said:

New CFS just came out, and boy it’s ugly. 

I mentioned watching the waters off the west coast, those ssts have cooled back down as the WPac marine heat wave got even stronger. 

I’ll do a brief outlook in October, not as detailed as last year’s. But my first guess is that we have about a 70% chance of a rat where we get only 0-3”. Only the upslope favored areas will do ok. 

One other thing I’ll say is that if you wanna chase snow, you may not necessarily have to fly west. I have a feeling there’ll be a monster lake effect event in Buffalo sometime late Nov through Dec. That’s your window if you want to get dumped on within a 7 hour drive of here. 

Las Vegas and Phoenix having such a consistently hot Summer does correlate to +PNA conditions in December, and sometimes it carries past then.. will be interesting with a La Nina and strong -PDO, which suggest the opposite. 

[Terpeast]

34 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Las Vegas and Phoenix having such a consistently hot Summer does correlate to +PNA conditions in December, and sometimes it carries past then.. will be interesting with a La Nina and strong -PDO, which suggest the opposite. 

It wouldn’t actually surprise me if December turned out to be our best winter month this year. The hope I hold onto is that it hangs on through part of January allowing us to get in on some action. October will tell us a lot more about where this thing is headed. 

@psuhoffman Have a great trip! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/10/2024 at 10:00 PM, Terpeast said:

It wouldn’t actually surprise me if December turned out to be our best winter month this year. The hope I hold onto is that it hangs on through part of January allowing us to get in on some action. October will tell us a lot more about where this thing is headed. 

@psuhoffman Have a great trip! 

I am optimistic for December.

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am optimistic for December.

You all obviously can cash in early, but we typically still struggle in December even with favorable patterns. Especially the lowlands. The last week of the month or into January is much more favorable. Although the total lack of notable winter weather in Xmas-NYE week here for a LONG time seems like a statistical fluke. Mid-December has been the window for small events since we had the December 5th run like 20 years ago. Very little after the 18-20th until January.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

You all obviously can cash in early, but we typically still struggle in December even with favorable patterns. Especially the lowlands. The last week of the month or into January is much more favorable. Although the total lack of notable winter weather in Xmas-NYE week here for a LONG time seems like a statistical fluke. Mid-December has been the window for small events since we had the December 5th run like 20 years ago. Very little after the 18-20th until January.

Agree it is a statistical fluke. We had that Dec 2009 blizzard as well.

In a -enso -pdo year like this, we need to score in that window to get something we wouldn’t look back on as a ratter. 

[GramaxRefugee]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Agree it is a statistical fluke. We had that Dec 2009 blizzard as well.

In a -enso -pdo year like this, we need to score in that window to get something we wouldn’t look back on as a ratter. 

using BWI ...

Decembers this century with below normal avg temp (12 out of 23)
2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2016, 2017, 2022

Dec 2000 shows as 7th coldest on record, (since 1873). Coldest, by far, is 1989....if you remember that.

Decembers this century with above normal total snowfall (7 out of 23)
2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2013, 2017

So yes, we had a string of colder Decembers, but lately pretty lame.

[TheClimateChanger]

36 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

using BWI ...

Decembers this century with below normal avg temp (12 out of 23)
2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2016, 2017, 2022

Dec 2000 shows as 7th coldest on record, (since 1873). Coldest, by far, is 1989....if you remember that.

Decembers this century with above normal total snowfall (7 out of 23)
2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2013, 2017

So yes, we had a string of colder Decembers, but lately pretty lame.

2004, 2007, 2008, and 2016 were all warmer than normal based on the normals in place at the time [some by fairly substantial margins]. They jacked up what's considered "normal" at BWI in December by nearly 2F in 2021.

[GramaxRefugee]

30 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

2004, 2007, 2008, and 2016 were all warmer than normal based on the normals in place at the time [some by fairly substantial margins]. They jacked up what's considered "normal" at BWI in December by nearly 2F in 2021.

I listed it from por-2024 and noted a mean of 37.5. Also checked the Dec 2023 total and noted a normal of 38.6.  So I estimate it has gone up about 1.1f

2004 and 2007 are at 37.5 and 37.8. 2008 and 2016 need the 38.6 crutch to be considered "colder than normal". But really, these are about average. But, y'know, since you asked...

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

I listed it from por-2024 and noted a mean of 37.5. Also checked the Dec 2023 total and noted a normal of 38.6.  So I estimate it has gone up about 1.1f

2004 and 2007 are at 37.5 and 37.8. 2008 and 2016 need the 38.6 crutch to be considered "colder than normal". But really, these are about average. But, y'know, since you asked...

The 1971-2000 normal and 1981-2010 normal for BWI for the month of December was 36.7F. The mean for those periods was 37.7F and 37.3F, respectively, but the normal appears to have been adjusted downward to account for changes in equipment. 

2016

2008

2007

2004

 

 

[WxUSAF]

 

[CAPE]

10 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

 

The more poleward Aleutian ridge is the most important feature for our area in a Nina. That along with the stretched/southward displaced TPV idea the climate models have been hinting at would provide a mechanism for cold air delivery at times. During colder periods the thermal boundary could push over/just to the south of us. Models have also been hinting at possible HL blocking. Fwiw the advertised h5 look on the latest CFS runs look quite acceptable for Jan, and Feb too.

[frd]

Big drop in the AO arriving.  Good early season sign. 

 

 

[Jebman]

Right off the bat, I expect average snow tallies all over the region this winter. PSU may get buried alive with 200 plus percent snow.