dailylurker Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Part of me thinks everyone is going to call for a rinse & repeat outlook of the past few years, only to miss something and it ends up decent. Same. It's always the opposite of these outlooks. I'm more concerned when everything looks good for a decent winter lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Part of me thinks everyone is going to call for a rinse & repeat outlook of the past few years, only to miss something and it ends up decent. At some point maybe we will luck into a decent season (defined down this way as a 2-3 week span of chances), but it feels like the predictability of that is gonna be nil. Just random luck anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Love the full transparency. Down this way, it is pretty much all we have left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 26 Share Posted August 26 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Part of me thinks everyone is going to call for a rinse & repeat outlook of the past few years, only to miss something and it ends up decent. To me, the one "decent" nina post 2016 was the nickel-and-dime winter of 2017-18 where we got 18 inches or so. That year was funny because most of the 1-2 inchers came right during the morning rush and the schools burned through all their snow days despite the small amounts, hahaha I'm my unscientific opinion (yes I have no shortage of those), that would be the top end of possibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 26 Author Share Posted August 26 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: To me, the one "decent" nina post 2016 was the nickel-and-dime winter of 2017-18 where we got 18 inches or so. That year was funny because most of the 1-2 inchers came right during the morning rush and the schools burned through all their snow days despite the small amounts, hahaha I'm my unscientific opinion (yes I have no shortage of those), that would be the top end of possibilities. That was a good Nina winter, esp the beach blizzard chase. The 2021-22 Nina was better in my yard, with 3 Jan snowstorms, including snow on snow. Right around 20" for the month. Plus I identified the potential for the early Jan storm weeks before when we were mired in the 'shit the blinds' pattern with no apparent end in sight. Was fun to track from LR to short range, to it actually coming to fruition- although it left PSU land high and dry. Not much of anything snow-wise before or after that over here though. Some bad luck in Feb. That was an epic Jan by today's standards, so that winter goes down as a big win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 More of the same seems likely . Probably not as radical but still just 10-15” stuff and temps +2. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 12 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: More of the same seems likely . Probably not as radical but still just 10-15” stuff and temps +2. Divide snow by 3 and multiply temps by 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27 Share Posted August 27 12 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: More of the same seems likely . Probably not as radical but still just 10-15” stuff and temps +2. Do you still collaborate with Keith Allen? I still remember you regularly talking about him and many folks here were thus always eagerly anticipating your posts passing along his thoughts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 11 hours ago, GaWx said: Do you still collaborate with Keith Allen? I still remember you regularly talking about him and many folks here were thus always eagerly anticipating your posts passing along his thoughts. He stopped publicizing it. Yes talk a lot still. Winters are screwier than ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 On 8/26/2024 at 11:15 PM, WEATHER53 said: More of the same seems likely . Probably not as radical but still just 10-15” stuff and temps +2. I would give real money for a nice 8" - 12" of snow starting around sun rise Christmas Day with temps staying below normal through New Years. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I would give real money for a nice 8" - 12" of snow starting around sun rise Christmas Day with temps staying below normal through New Years. My wife would probably divorce me for the price I’d pay for that… 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 I haven’t looked at much yet, but haven’t seen any reason for optimism so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: I would give real money for a nice 8" - 12" of snow starting around sun rise Christmas Day with temps staying below normal through New Years. December isn’t a winter month. You will have to wait until March 34th for your 8”+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 On 8/26/2024 at 11:15 PM, WEATHER53 said: More of the same seems likely . Probably not as radical but still just 10-15” stuff and temps +2. Hey H****d. Looks reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scope1 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 With Enso state expected to lean towards a La Niña probably gonna be yet another boring winter for tracking snow unless we hit the lottery like the blizzard of ‘96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 28 Author Share Posted August 28 If we get an h5 pattern similar to this, with the Aleutian ridge more poleward and the suggestion of periodic -EPO episodes, we could end up with a good few weeks to a month of actual winter similar to Jan 2022. The other thing you like to see in a Nina is a somewhat southward displaced/stretched TPV. Occasional cold air pressing southward in the flow between the EPO ridge and TPV in a gradient pattern with a well timed wave is a pretty straight forward path to victory for our area in a Nina. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 28 Share Posted August 28 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: Hey H****d. Looks reasonable to me. Hi M*t* How are things and any changes of interest? I’m retired and being a granddaddy and find winter models more disgusting than ever 202-589-1212 and be in The Know Do you still see R**dy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 17 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: I would give real money for a nice 8" - 12" of snow starting around sun rise Christmas Day with temps staying below normal through New Years. Xmas eve..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 14 hours ago, CAPE said: If we get an h5 pattern similar to this, with the Aleutian ridge more poleward and the suggestion of periodic -EPO episodes, we could end up with a good few weeks to a month of actual winter similar to Jan 2022. The other thing you like to see in a Nina is a somewhat southward displaced/stretched TPV. Occasional cold air pressing southward in the flow between the EPO ridge and TPV in a gradient pattern with a well timed wave is a pretty straight forward path to victory for our area in a Nina. The Cansips looks pretty good, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 March to remember??? Personally already tossing the first 3 "winter" months and placing full trust in CFS (which obviously has never led me astray before) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 29 Author Share Posted August 29 8 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: March to remember??? Personally already tossing the first 3 "winter" months and placing full trust in CFS (which obviously has never led me astray before) Might play out something like 2018. Early Jan bomb cyclone courtesy of an impressive +PNA/-EPO ridge with cross polar flow, followed by a late winter -NAO episode with a non hostile Pacific, resulting in a mid March SECS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Might play out something like 2018. Early Jan bomb cyclone courtesy of an impressive +PNA/-EPO ridge with cross polar flow, followed by a late winter -NAO episode with a non hostile Pacific, resulting in a mid March SECS. I mean you had a pretty impressive lead time with the original cape storm but this just seems cocky! Actually though, that's a very intriguing possibility and you will get full naming rights when (not if) this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 29 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Just a wild radar today. Love the two areas colliding just south of Manassas. I think I might get crushed by that. Might… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 On 8/28/2024 at 5:53 PM, CAPE said: If we get an h5 pattern similar to this, with the Aleutian ridge more poleward and the suggestion of periodic -EPO episodes, we could end up with a good few weeks to a month of actual winter similar to Jan 2022. The other thing you like to see in a Nina is a somewhat southward displaced/stretched TPV. Occasional cold air pressing southward in the flow between the EPO ridge and TPV in a gradient pattern with a well timed wave is a pretty straight forward path to victory for our area in a Nina. We could luck into a 2018/2022 type Nina with that look. But that’s kinda the high bar until the larger scale pac pattern completely flips imo, and I don’t mean enso. Even when we’ve had a decent period of forcing and a good upstream long wave pattern there has been a tendency for the overall warmth to just overwhelm the pattern in the east more often than not. Yea that long wave pattern isn’t bad in terms of the configuration, but again look at the overall heights all over, looks like it’s advertising more of what we’ve had for 8 years. Warm dominating 75% with small pockets of colder and mostly not at our latitude and elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 I also totally admit I’m way less enthused because up here it’s pretty impossible to get close to climo trying to luck into a couple progressive waves, and that’s a pretty much the only path to snow in that look. If I was just looking for a 15-20” winter I’d be more optimistic from that look. If im being honest, I’ve been up here 19 years now, and for the first 11 it was worth the long commute snow wise. The last 8 years it’s most definitely not been! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 30 Author Share Posted August 30 11 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: I mean you had a pretty impressive lead time with the original cape storm but this just seems cocky! Actually though, that's a very intriguing possibility and you will get full naming rights when (not if) this happens. Its not a prediction. Just speculation based on how some recent Ninas have played out, and it represents a possible best case scenario realistically. A cold period late Dec into mid January, then another chance later in winter as the Nina fades, with a possible NA blocking period. It's impossible to know exactly what the character of this event will be or how it will play out- right now there is no guarantee it will be an official Nina. Cold neutral is a possibility. What we do know is the PDO is still unfavorable and there are various marine heat waves that will have some impact. The MJO forcing will likely remain in the unfavorable phases most of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 While I think we’ll see more of the same this winter, a potential wild card is that ssts off the west coast have been warming the last 4 weeks. Still have that marine hear wave off Japan and SW of the aleutians, so that’s supportive of a north pacific high on a seasonal scale. But I wonder if we’ll see a bit more -EPO blocking. Like last January, that’s our path to a serviceable albeit below climo winter. But if those waters cool back down in the fall while the Japan marine heat wave persists, I don’t see a way out of another warm and snowless winter unless a short-term fluke happens. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: While I think we’ll see more of the same this winter, a potential wild card is that ssts off the west coast have been warming the last 4 weeks. Still have that marine hear wave off Japan and SW of the aleutians, so that’s supportive of a north pacific high on a seasonal scale. But I wonder if we’ll see a bit more -EPO blocking. Like last January, that’s our path to a serviceable albeit below climo winter. But if those waters cool back down in the fall while the Japan marine heat wave persists, I don’t see a way out of another warm and snowless winter unless a short-term fluke happens. If we get another close to totally snowless winter (and I agree we could) that would be troubling since that’s supposed to be a once in 20 years type thing but this would be several in a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we get another close to totally snowless winter (and I agree we could) that would be troubling since that’s supposed to be a once in 20 years type thing but this would be several in a short period. Some people in the ENSO thread have been saying that this could be a version 2.0 of the 22-23 winter. Analog looks good, but I think there may be even less blocking this time than that winter unless the tropics start acting up soon. I’m trying to find paths to a decent winter, and aside from the EPO domain, I’m not seeing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 On 8/28/2024 at 3:12 PM, Eskimo Joe said: I would give real money for a nice 8" - 12" of snow starting around sun rise Christmas Day with temps staying below normal through New Years. You need to re-visit Christmas 1969. I received 12 inches with a high of 24 and a low of 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now