Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation

[Weather Will]

  On 7/13/2024 at 4:44 PM, WxUSAF said:

^strange he didn’t mention all the underwater volcanoes!

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He did, says volcanic activity decreasing but that there is a lag response.  Says upcoming period will be interesting to see if he is correct.  Hope he is right.....  

[WxUSAF]

  On 7/13/2024 at 5:00 PM, Weather Will said:

He did, says volcanic activity decreasing but that there is a lag response.  Says upcoming period will be interesting to see if he is correct.  Hope he is right.....  

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He’s been saying something for 20+ years. Hasn’t been right yet but keeps inventing some new crazy idea each time.

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 7/13/2024 at 4:44 PM, WxUSAF said:

^strange he didn’t mention all the underwater volcanoes!

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I'm still waiting for all the snow he promised last winter.

[JenkinsJinkies]

  On 7/14/2024 at 1:15 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm still waiting for all the snow he promised last winter.

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It went to the Sierra Nevadas during the 9000 atmospheric rivers.

[Weather Will]

Direct Weather winter forecast....  no idea who they are but I like their dream maps.

[nj2va]

All of those “winter experts” with similar maps all put the 95 corridor in the same contour every year. 

[mdhokie]

  On 7/18/2024 at 11:02 AM, Weather Will said:

Direct Weather winter forecast....  no idea who they are but I like their dream maps.

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Someone asked chatgpt to make east coast snowstorm weenie maps and posted it on social media.

[WxUSAF]

If this ends up a weak Nina winter, JB will be tripping over himself to make 95-96 his top analog. 

[North Balti Zen]

  On 7/18/2024 at 2:36 PM, WxUSAF said:

If this ends up a weak Nina winter, JB will be tripping over himself to make 95-96 his top analog. 

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One of the years tho...he will be right. Maybe. Let's go for this one. 

[IronTy]

  On 7/18/2024 at 11:02 AM, Weather Will said:

Direct Weather winter forecast....  no idea who they are but I like their dream maps.

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On their map the entire US is going to be covered in snow and storms for winter except for the SW.  It's sure to verify.  Remember I already called for snows east of 95, looks like they're on to the same intel I've been reading.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Greenland has seen the strongest negative H5 anomaly in the N. Hemisphere in about 3-4 years, this Summer. Some people and climate models might latch onto that and say, there is a chance. The thing is though, there is a strong correlation to Summer SSTs in the N. Atlantic with the following Winter's NAO, and that deep trough had made the predictive area move into a SST range that has a +NAO likelihood for the Winter. I have tested that NAO formula out real time since 2005, and it's 9-9, within the standard deviation of 0.54. Right now the NAO-predictor index is running about +0.35, making the 50% odds that the NAO runs -0.19 to +0.89 for DJFM. But the index runs out to September, and what we have seen lately is warming, so it may finish >+0.50 for the year, giving us like a 75% chance that it will be a +NAO Winter.  

[IronTy]

  On 7/18/2024 at 11:40 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Greenland has seen the strongest negative H5 anomaly in the N. Hemisphere in about 3-4 years, this Summer. Some people and climate models might latch onto that and say, there is a chance. The thing is though, there is a strong correlation to Summer SSTs in the N. Atlantic with the following Winter's NAO, and that deep trough had made the predictive area move into a SST range that has a +NAO likelihood for the Winter. I have tested that NAO formula out real time since 2005, and it's 9-9, within the standard deviation of 0.54. Right now the NAO-predictor index is running about +0.35, making the 50% odds that the NAO runs -0.19 to +0.89 for DJFM. But the index runs out to September, and what we have seen lately is warming, so it may finish >+0.50 for the year, giving us like a 75% chance that it will be a +NAO Winter.  

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That's cool and all but I've been really studying my new weather textbook and I'm seeing big snows for us.  

 

 

[CAPE]

From the latest ENSO blog.

  Quote

The forecast is based on information from our computer climate models, including the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, a collection of state-of-the-art models (more info here and here). The model forecasts are in agreement that La Niña is likely, although over the past few months they have backed off somewhat on the strength of the upcoming event. Currently, the probability that La Niña will peak in our unofficial “moderate” category (3-month-average Niño-3.4 Index at least 1.0 °C cooler than average) is around 50%. The stronger the event, the more likely its expected impacts will occur over the globe.

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https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2024-enso-update-summer-vacation

[JTA66]

  On 7/13/2024 at 5:28 PM, WxUSAF said:

He’s been saying something for 20+ years. Hasn’t been right yet but keeps inventing some new crazy idea each time.

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In the 2000’s, JB said the big turnaround would take place in the 2010’s and if it didn’t he’d have to reconsider his position.

[TheClimateChanger]

  On 7/18/2024 at 11:02 AM, Weather Will said:

Direct Weather winter forecast....  no idea who they are but I like their dream maps.

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Looks like a rough winter for a snow weenie in Miami.

[WEATHER53]

In this changing environment, the methods that used to work don’t anymore.  Years much more that 25 ago just are not good indicators.  ENSO not reliable.  Many new indexes unproven 

Here we sit on top of a big pot  of water with 4% of the planet populated and built upon .  We need to look elsewhere other than we are warming that pot from the top down. We don’t have the power to do that.  We need to look from the bottom up and therein will lie the answer 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

ENSO subsurface is a very good tool. We have technologies that measure the ocean thermocline, and that increases the likelihood of given patterns.

CPC has been doing extremely well on their monthly and seasonal forecasts over the past 1-2 years. 

But yeah, the neutralization of the climate is making consistency a top forecasting method these days. It's my opinion that classic methods are already taken into account, and factored into Oil prices, etc.. 

[Jebman]

  On 7/18/2024 at 11:02 AM, Weather Will said:

Direct Weather winter forecast....  no idea who they are but I like their dream maps.

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I hope that map is correct. I want you guys to get shellacked!

[mattie g]

Long-range guesscasting based on ENSO analogs hasn't worked too well recently. I think I'll continue to not worry about winter until it's here...and even then forecasting at shorter ranges has generally been unreliable so I'll probably just let things happen as they will without concerning myself over it!

[winter_warlock]

  On 7/18/2024 at 2:36 PM, WxUSAF said:

If this ends up a weak Nina winter, JB will be tripping over himself to make 95-96 his top analog. 

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Yup JB  would burst with excitement over that lol

[winter_warlock]

Has anyone seen  if models re trending towards  a  strong or weak elnino or a strong or weak lanina winter?   I've had internet issues so haven't been on much  till now

[GramaxRefugee]

  On 7/25/2024 at 1:40 AM, winter_warlock said:

Has anyone seen  if models re trending towards  a  strong or weak elnino or a strong or weak lanina winter?   I've had internet issues so haven't been on much  till n

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Lotta talk in this thread....exhaustive, almost..

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60046-2024-2025-la-nina/page/59/#commentsow

 

[Terpeast]

  On 7/25/2024 at 1:55 AM, GramaxRefugee said:

Lotta talk in this thread....exhaustive, almost..

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60046-2024-2025-la-nina/page/59/#commentsow

 

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The TL,DR is that there’s some uncertainty in how strong the la nina is gonna get. Models have backed away from its strength lately.

But the PDO is still very negative and will remain so through winter, so enso may not even matter much for us here

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 6/20/2024 at 10:42 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

EPO's run in 7-12 day patterns, and I kind of think we are due for some -EPO patterns. In 99-00 we had that Jan 25 storm that gave us 20" in the midst of a Strong La Nina and a very warm Winter, so yeah things can time right and we can get average snowfall, It will usually happen with a -EPO or +PNA. 

With that being said, they haven't seen a flake of snow in Raleigh, NC for 1100 days. And Boston hasn't seen a 4" storm in almost 3 years. The jet stream is definitely lifting north for the last decade, and I think that has a lot to do with the Pacific La Nina cycle we are in, resulting in -PDO. I think what they normally see in NC/SC is what we are in right now, and that doesn't really show signs of changing, at least not soon. 

Watch the SW, US too, when they get troughs/rain, we are more favorable for Winter weather a few years later, vs hot/dry there, which usually spreads east over time..

Maybe when the Atlantic starts switching back to -AMO and the PDO changes as well we will get more favorable.. they both should be near their decadal cycle peaks right now. I think what we are in right now is more RNA/+AMO vs what they would call global warming. maybe like 70/30

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Completely agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 7/25/2024 at 1:38 AM, winter_warlock said:

Yup JB  would burst with excitement over that lol

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It doesn't matter if the ONI remains weak, the La Nina Walker cell will still be at least moderately intense for the same reason that we saw the continuation of the cool ENSO regime during an onstensibly powerful el Nino last year....the west Pacific warmth.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 7/22/2024 at 5:35 PM, mattie g said:

Long-range guesscasting based on ENSO analogs hasn't worked too well recently. I think I'll continue to not worry about winter until it's here...and even then forecasting at shorter ranges has generally been unreliable so I'll probably just let things happen as they will without concerning myself over it!

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Below is the reason why. The reason I whiffed last season is because I misinterpreted the impications of el nino being partially negated by the west PAC....I concepotualized it as simply a weaker El Nino, which is more favorable for winter....but what actually was taking place was the West Pacific competing and largely overpowering the El Nino.

  On 7/25/2024 at 12:14 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It doesn't matter if the ONI reminas weak, the La Nina Walker cell will still be at least moderately intense for the same reason that we had a cool ENSO regime during an onstensibly powerful el Nino last year....the west Pacific warmth.

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[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 7/18/2024 at 11:02 AM, Weather Will said:

Direct Weather winter forecast....  no idea who they are but I like their dream maps.

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That guy is an enormous toolbag and is the embodiment of what social media has done to online meteorologists. The desire to increase traffic has corrupted the very products that they attempt draw in folks to view....everything is dramatic hype. Same thing that JB fell prey to.

[mattie g]

  On 7/25/2024 at 12:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Below is the reason why. The reason I whiffed last season is because I misinterpreted the impications of el nino being partially negated by the west PAC....I concepotualized it as simply a weaker El Nino, which is more favorable for winter....but what actually was taking place was the West Pacific competing and largely overpowering the El Nino.

 

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This makes a lot of sense...and it appears that even the best long-rangers are using the experience of the last few years to hone in on things a bit better. You're one of the best and I really enjoy reading your write-ups each year, and while I'm not going to worry myself over what may or may not happen, I would certainly prefer to see bullish progs than bearish ones!

[midatlanticweather]

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

After getting burned for several years, I'm paying more attention to the pacific jet and the PDO. While it's just August, I'm happy to see this pool of warmer waters off the Inside Passage. Hopefully this persists and gets the east coast a few chances for snow this winter.