CAPE Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Speculation mostly at this juncture, but it's time. Days will be getting shorter going forward. Ji is slipping. 7 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 CFS has backed off on the strength of the Nina over the last week. Close to neutral in Feb now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Solstice √ Excessive Heat Watch √ Winter 2024-25 Discussion/Speculation √ 7 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 May QBO rose to -6.5, from -23.4 in April. Since it runs in positive/negative 10+ month period cycles, that gives us about a >92% chance of having a +QBO Winter. QBO/La Nina strengthens the 10mb polar vortex, giving higher tendency for +AO conditions at the surface. Because of this coupling with La Nina, the ENSO state for the Winter is more sensitive than normal for above or below normal temperature conditions. The PDO has actually a greater temperature correlation over the Mid Atlantic region than ENSO does. With -PDO still running strong, making down to -3 last month, it's very likely that we will have a -PDO Winter. The fact that a growing La Nina is occurring strengthens this idea. It usually goes in the direction of ENSO. Solar Max is occurring with near peak conditions currently underway. Solar Max correlates with the NAO at +0.3 (~30% chance for +NAO Winter vs -NAO). The jet stream has really lifted north this year, and the last few years. That doesn't mean we can't get a cold Winter.. Kansas City hit a windchill of -35F in January for the Chiefs playoff game, so you can get cold bursts, but the percentages and overall, start shifting heavily in the direction of warm when you see things so far north, early in the season and at this time of year.. Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years.. one I picked and chose from, the other was a +12 month roll forward! (~20% of total years included)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year. https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV [Years were (+): 1948-49, 52-53, 90-91, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00, 2001-02, 05-06, 11-12, 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, 22-23. (-) years: 1970-71, 77-78, 78-79, 81-82, 83-84, 92-93.] Mexico saw a major heat wave in May. The roll forward of years matching this, show that the heat develops across the US from the Rockies to Midwest July-August, then in September it rolls east, with above average conditions usually occurring through the following Fall and Winter (Sept-Mar). Right now I have about 85-90% confidence that we will see an above average temperature Winter (DJFM) vs the 30-year average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: May QBO rose to -6.5, from -23.4 in April. Since it runs in positive/negative 10+ month period cycles, that gives us about a >92% chance of having a +QBO Winter. QBO/La Nina strengthens the 10mb polar vortex, giving higher tendency for +AO conditions at the surface. Because of this coupling with La Nina, the ENSO state for the Winter is more sensitive than normal for above or below normal temperature conditions. The PDO has actually a greater temperature correlation over the Mid Atlantic region than ENSO does. With -PDO still running strong, making down to -3 last month, it's very likely that we will have a -PDO Winter. The fact that a growing La Nina is occurring strengthens this idea. It usually goes in the direction of ENSO. Solar Max is occurring with near peak conditions currently underway. Solar Max correlates with the NAO at +0.3 (~30% chance for +NAO Winter vs -NAO). The jet stream has really lifted north this year, and the last few years. That doesn't mean we can't get a cold Winter.. Kansas City hit a windchill of -35F in January for the Chiefs playoff game, so you can get cold bursts, but the percentages and overall, start shifting heavily in the direction of warm when you see things so far north, early in the season and at this time of year.. Since we are going to have one of the warmest December-June's on record in the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, I made a list of 19 best analog matches since 1948, and found actually a strong correlation for next Winter's temperatures: Dec-Jun analogs: https://ibb.co/gZkPmqk Following Dec-Feb (scale is almost the same! for 19/75 years.. one I picked and chose from, the other was a +12 month roll forward! (~20% of total years included)). https://ibb.co/YR3kwmm I made the primary factor broad-CONUS based above or below average temperatures, so if there was a strong opposite anomaly somewhere in the country, I didn't use that year. https://ibb.co/j5qjkJV [Years were (+): 1948-49, 52-53, 90-91, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00, 2001-02, 05-06, 11-12, 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, 22-23. (-) years: 1970-71, 77-78, 78-79, 81-82, 83-84, 92-93.] Mexico saw a major heat wave in May. The roll forward of years matching this, show that the heat develops across the US from the Rockies to Midwest July-August, then in September it rolls east, with above average conditions usually occurring through the following Fall and Winter (Sept-Mar). Right now I have about 85-90% confidence that we will see an above average temperature Winter (DJFM) vs the 30-year average. Always a good bet given recent history, and with nothing of significance to suggest anything different. That being said, in these parts all we need is a couple weeks with a favorable pattern within an overall period of suckage to have a memorable winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Always a good bet given recent history, and with nothing of significance to suggest anything different. That being said, in these parts all we need is a couple weeks with a favorable pattern within an overall period of suckage to have a memorable winter. EPO's run in 7-12 day patterns, and I kind of think we are due for some -EPO patterns. In 99-00 we had that Jan 25 storm that gave us 20" in the midst of a Strong La Nina and a very warm Winter, so yeah things can time right and we can get average snowfall, It will usually happen with a -EPO or +PNA. With that being said, they haven't seen a flake of snow in Raleigh, NC for 1100 days. And Boston hasn't seen a 4" storm in almost 3 years. The jet stream is definitely lifting north for the last decade, and I think that has a lot to do with the Pacific La Nina cycle we are in, resulting in -PDO. I think what they normally see in NC/SC is what we are in right now, and that doesn't really show signs of changing, at least not soon. Watch the SW, US too, when they get troughs/rain, we are more favorable for Winter weather a few years later, vs hot/dry there, which usually spreads east over time.. Maybe when the Atlantic starts switching back to -AMO and the PDO changes as well we will get more favorable.. they both should be near their decadal cycle peaks right now. I think what we are in right now is more RNA/+AMO vs what they would call global warming. maybe like 70/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Above normal each month. 1 good 10-12 day period in early January. 10” at BWI and IAD, 6” at DCA. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Above normal each month. 1 good 10-12 day period in early January. 10” at BWI and IAD, 6” at DCA. Ok. Fine. Then I want to see you roll with that in the forthcoming snowfall contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 A repeat of 22-23 so that way this past winter’s underperformance hurts even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 20 hours ago, CAPE said: CFS has backed off on the strength of the Nina over the last week. Close to neutral in Feb now. Cool. We'll be 45 and rain instead of 52 and rain. Baby steps! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Cool. We'll be 45 and rain instead of 52 and rain. Baby steps! After it being 63 three days earlier instead of 73. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 23 hours ago, CAPE said: Always a good bet given recent history, and with nothing of significance to suggest anything different. That being said, in these parts all we need is a couple weeks with a favorable pattern within an overall period of suckage to have a memorable winter. La Nina = Dewey Beach road trip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 In spite of the Nina, I think everyone will have climo snow tallies in 24-25. PSU will get training thundersnows and come in 300 percent of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 At least Christmas Eve future is now closer than Christmas Eve past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 I’m going to assume we’re in summer 1995 and push the last of my chips in for this winter. This is our last chance ever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 Imagine if we got a redux of winter 2010-2011. I'd sign in a skinny minute. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 I think it will be the opposite of what all of the forecast call for. It's always that way. Mother nature doesn't care about our indices. I'm going for normal temps and some decent hits here east of DC. NW areas get frozen mud and pitty flurries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 12 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Imagine if we got a redux of winter 2010-2011. I'd sign in a skinny minute. yeah but no big misses this time, please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 It’s 100 degrees and we’re talking winter and snow. My kinda people! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Because of Ninas post 2016 I'm preemptively writing off this upcoming winter and the one after it since Ninas tend to go back to back. Our next realistic shot for a blockbuster season is winter 2026-2027. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 It will be colder this winter than last. Cfs looks pretty good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Hoping for a lot of juicy OHV lows. That appears to be the only way left for those of us west of the BR to get meaningful precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 On 6/29/2024 at 7:31 AM, Ji said: It will be colder this winter than last. Cfs looks pretty good Alost anything would be colder than last winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Alost anything would be colder than last winter. Things can always be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 6 hours ago, IronTy said: Things can always be worse. Eh...only way it can be worse than anything we've seen the last several years is just numerically: if we finish with 0.1" or just plain 0"...we already got as low 0.2 in 2022-23! After that there's no worse to be had, hahaha But seriously though, we've basically seen every possible scenario that this winter can be, so no surprises, no new "Hm that could make things interesting/predictable". We've run out of "Oh this could be different"s! Literally exhausted all of those things to a point you can just put up a chart of the last 8 1/2 years, and just pick an outcome. Nothing new. (Side note if the PDO eventually flips again maybe then that can be something to look at since a +PDO isn't on the post 2016 list) Simply put...we already know what's up...been there, done that. For me that's where we're at only reason ya watch is if you're just in it for the science. But if you're watching it looking for anything different than 2017-now, you're wasting your time! In case ya can't tell...I'm kinda done with it. I mean could I be tempted to look this winter? I can't see a scenario where I am, but ya never know. Otherwise, could be better just to let it go and if a flake falls just say "Oh it's snowing--nice!" That and going skiing for the first time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 On 6/20/2024 at 6:33 PM, CAPE said: Always a good bet given recent history, and with nothing of significance to suggest anything different. That being said, in these parts all we need is a couple weeks with a favorable pattern within an overall period of suckage to have a memorable winter. Yes we can and I will be rooting for that kind of fluke, but it’s fighting uphill. Ultimately we need the global pattern to shift (are we still assuming it will?). If we want any sustained run of success to break out of this funk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 Post from JB on WB. Looks like we are out of luck until after 2130... see you then. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 13 Share Posted July 13 ^strange he didn’t mention all the underwater volcanoes! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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