Invest 92L in SW Atlantic reached SE US Fri

[Jebman]

Might want to start a disco about the Campeche region again, its got some activity over there.

[WxWatcher007]

Good thread here. It threaded the needle until it could no longer. The introduction of shear this morning disrupted it just enough (though I still think this was a TC).

Regardless of the outcome, these close to the coast cases are always a learning opportunity for identifying TC genesis and organizational potential. Sadly, there were reported fatalities in Florida due to rip currents. 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

20 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Might want to start a disco about the Campeche region again, its got some activity over there.

People are on it in the 2024 Atlantic Tropics General Thread.  I'm holding for a 93L before I start. I don't man AmWx every waking hour, so feel free.

[GaWx]

The LLC per radar/satellite appears to have been moving close to due W instead of WNW the last couple of hours. It is ~40 miles E of FL/GA border.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[yoda]

And it's over

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Satellite imagery and National Weather Service Doppler radar data 
indicate that the well-defined low pressure area located about 40 
miles southeast of Brunswick, Georgia, is producing only minimal 
shower and thunderstorm activity at this time.  The low is likely 
to move inland during the next several hours, and the chances of 
the system becoming a tropical depression are decreasing.  
However, interests along the coasts of Georgia and northeastern 
Florida should continue to monitor the progress of the system until 
it moves inland.  For more information, refer to High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, as well as local 
forecasts issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast 
Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent

[WxWatcher007]

Were you part of the heavy rain this morning @GaWx?

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Were you part of the heavy rain this morning @GaWx?

 I’ve had ~1/3” of rain the last ~12 hrs here in the SAV area from several feeder bands. However, just a few miles S where a couple of the bands lined up better there was ~1”. Skies are overcast with E winds of 15 here on the N side of the circ, which appears to be centered ~50 mi SSW of me in ~N McIntosh Cty. To the S of the LLC, winds are SW at 15 in Brunswick area.

 There’s still a fairly well defined weak low within a pretty high SLP background. Not much is changing as far as the strength of the low is concerned. It appears to still be barely onshore drifting slowly N.

[GaWx]

 As the LLC has gotten closer to here, the winds have increased the last few hours to 15 with gusts to 20 and shifted from E to ESE. Skies are MC to PC. DPs are in the very tropical high 70s.

 If you go to this link and animate it, you can clearly see the slowly N moving LLC centered onshore about midway between SAV and SSI: check out all of the little heat induced pop up showers (cool stuff):

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CLX-N0B-0-24-100-usa-rad
 

@WxWatcher007

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 As the LLC has gotten closer to here, the winds have increased the last few hours to 15 with gusts to 20 and shifted from E to ESE. Skies are MC to PC. DPs are in the very tropical high 70s.

 If you go to this link and animate it, you can clearly see the slowly N moving LLC centered onshore about midway between SAV and SSI: check out all of the little heat induced pop up showers (cool stuff):

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CLX-N0B-0-24-100-usa-rad
 

@WxWatcher007

Love that 

[GaWx]

2PM TWO:

Near the Georgia Coast (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system 
centered just inland over southeastern Georgia have decreased 
during the past several hours. The low is expected to drift slowly 
north-northeastward near the coasts of Georgia and southern South 
Carolina through tonight before dissipating by Sunday. Tropical 
cyclone formation is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

[GaWx]

 For the first time since 92L started affecting this area, we’ve been getting thunderstorms. The rainfall has been quite heavy and has been training within a band moving NNW from the ocean. There are no warnings yet out for this county, but very likely this has already caused street flooding.

 *Edit: I ended up with a little over 2” during ~2 hour period with most of that falling within an hour. 

10AM Sun (6/23): LLC now over SE SC (near Beaufort)

[WxWatcher007]

Posting because there’s still interesting meteorology here. This is a great thread.